Severe weather threat...UPDATE

With the 2:00 PM CDT update to the convective outlook, Warren County is still included along the boundary of the slight risk area of the SPC.  However, as we continue on throughout the day, our previous forecast looks to verify, meaning that we'll be lucky to get any rain.  Current radar imagery from WFO KVWX in southwestern Indiana is seen below, showing storms that have fired ahead of the eastward advancing cold front.

The low pressure center associated with the front is straddling the Indiana and Ohio border and will continue eastward along the zonal 500 mb flow, slowly pushing the cold front across the Ohio River as we continue into tomorrow morning.  Mesoanalysis from the SPC shows a dry pocket of air ahead of the approaching storms.  In addition to the lack of moisture, sundown is approaching, meaning that with the lack of shear in the area, the stabilizing boundary layer overnight will settle us into a mostly dry evening.  Steep lapse rates, however, may produce a random shower before tomorrow morning.

Ultimately, today will be another day like Wednesday.  Our moisture that was in place was advected to the northeast, displacing the severe weather threat away from the county.  A big cool down will be coming over the next several days, bringing us back to spring-like weather.  Check back again on Monday for our next forecast.

Lead Forecaster:  Jeremy Young

Slight risk area for Friday

The Storm Prediction Center has placed Warren County under a slight risk for severe weather today, as outlined in the graphic below.

Model guidance suggests that a fairly zonal upper level wind pattern will advect low pressure over eastern Illinois eastward into Indiana and Ohio, dragging a cold-front across the area by early Saturday morning.  Given that virtually no lifting mechanism looks to affect our area during the day today and moisture content will be meager, we're expecting scattered coverage across the region, much like we experienced Wednesday.  Southwesterly flow should strengthen during the day to around 20-30 knots, upping dewpoints to the high 50's level.  However, strong CIN should hold off any significant convection until the late evening hours.  By sundown, we're looking for the continual 500 mb height falls, an eroded cap and about 1000 J/kg CAPE to create the chance for scattered thunderstorms.  Updates will be provided later as they become necessary, but for now, Stormtoppers will remain at ALERT status and will not be activating.

Between 7:00 and 8:00 PM, our shot at showers will be at its peak.

Lead Forecaster:  Jeremy Young

Forecast 3/29 - 3/31

Highlights:

-- Ridge to build in the area after the passage of the cold front Wednesday.

   bringing clearer skies and a dry Thursday.

-- Next chance for rain coming Friday during the day. Some storms could be severe with the main threat being wind and hail. Temperatures will drop slightly with the passage of the cold front. 

-- Clearing back out Sunday with temperatures warming back up.

Discussion:

After the passage of the cold front Wednesday, a ridge of high pressure will build in behind and clear out the skies and leave Thursday dry. Highs will be expected to be in the  mid 70's to 80's with lows in the mid 50's. Friday will bring the next chance for rain as a shortwave trough moves through the area. The southwesterly flow will advect warm moist air into the area. There could be some instability to work with in the way of CAPE values in the 1000 j/kg range and steep mid-level lapse rates. It appears right now that the shortwave will track more through the northern part of Kentucky meaning the best chance for severe weather would be north of our area. However, it is not out the question that Bowling Green could see some severe weather. Like the event from Wednesday, the timing of the cold front will determine the severity of the developing storms. The main threat with this will be high winds and hail. With the passage of this cold front, skies will clear and temperatures will be cooling into the low 70's with lows in the mid 50's. A warm up will come Sunday. 

Lead Forecaster: Emily Yates

Next Update: April 1st

Wednesday Slight Risk Update

SLIGHT RISK FOR WEDNESDAY UPDATED

Discussion:

The slight risk has been moved north of our area. The cold front has been moving much slower than expected. It is currently situated just outside of Kentucky where storms are beginning to fire from the frontal forcing. 

The CAPE values for Kentucky are currently in the 1000-2000 j/kg range. The best 50 kts wind shear continues to remain north of Bowling Green. Dew points remain in the 60's. The advections are currently to the northeast taking all the instability northeastward to the areas currently involved in the watch. 

All this being said, our best chances for storms will be pushed into late afternoon/evening. They will likely be weaker than expected due to the timing and stabilization of the atmosphere as we move into the evening and lose daytime heating. 

Lead Forecaster: Emily Yates

Convective Outlook for Wednesday

SLIGHT RISK FOR WEDNESDAY

Discussion:

 The Storm Predication Center has put Bowling Green in the slight risk area for Wednesday. The slight risk has been issued in lieu of a short wave trough digging out from the Great Lakes region ahead of a southeastward advancing cold front. Moisture will be readily available along with frontal forcing for lift. Dew points will also be in the low to mid 60's which is conducive to storm development. The timing for this is around 18z Wednesday (Noon CST). This event will likely involve some kind of squall line development with the main threat being damaging wind gusts and hail. 

Lead Forecaster: Emily Yates

Forecast 03/26-03/28

Highlights:

• Ridging will continue to keep temperatures above normal for March with highs in the upper 70's and lows in the upper 50's.
• The ridge will break down Tuesday night as a low pressure system moves in.  This will allow a chance of scattered showers and storms as a cold front moves through Wednesday.

Discussion:


Warm temperatures will be returning Monday as a ridge builds back in from the west.  This will allow for partly cloudy skies, eventually clearing, as the ridge moves further east.  Tuesday, a low pressure system will move east and break down the ridge.  This will bring a chance of showers and storms late Tuesday and into Wednesday.  Highs until then will remain in the upper 70's with lows in the upper 50's with a cool down of temperatures into Tuesday night with the approaching front.


Next Update:  Wednesday, March 28
Lead Forecaster:  Emily Yates

Tornado watch until 12:00 AM March 24 CDT

The SPC has issued a tornado watch for our area that includes Warren
County, one which is valid until 12:00 AM March 24, midnight tonight.
We're expecting moisture to continue to advect into the area, meeting
up with instability and a feature from the upper level low to our east
to supplement the storms that are forming.  It is possible for a
tornado out of one of these storms.  More updates will be provided as
necessary.

This map shows the entirety of the watch

Lead Forecaster:  Jeremy Young

Severe thunderstorm watch possible for this afternoon

Now that the Storm Prediction Center has placed us under a slight risk again for the afternoon, it looks as though the strengthening of storms ahead of the cut-off upper-level low is likely.  Clearing, as seen in visible satellite imagery, will help destabilize the atmosphere, helping to generate CAPE values up to about 1000 J/kg. 

 

In addition to the higher CAPE values advecting into the area, steep low and mid-level lapse rates will be moving eastward as well, contributing to the severe weather threat by making hail a more likely possibility. 

We’re expecting effective shear values to help generate a line of storms across western Kentucky that will move eastward into the county by the late afternoon.  Coverage is still going to be scattered, but cells that do develop will likely be near or at severe limits.

More updates will be posted as watches and warnings are issued by the SPC and NWS.

Lead Forecaster:  Jeremy Young

Slight risk for severe weather tomorrow...

The Storm Prediction Center has placed us under a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow.  A fairly strong, but dying upper-level low centered over Oklahoma will continue to migrate to the east.  As it does, we'll see lapse rates steepen as colder air aloft advects eastward, and we'll see CAPE values approaching 1000 J/Kg.  This should be enough for some strong thunderstorms to spawn across the central portion of the state tomorrow, likely contributing some hail and damaging winds to the weather.

 Lead Forecaster: Jeremy Young

Highlights:

-- Pattern change for the rest of the week

-- Cooler temperatures and chances of precipitation through the weekend

Forecast:

Deep upper level trough that has been producing heavy rain and severe weather in TX through the week, will cut-off and slowly drift across our region through the weekend.  With enhanced lift and a cool core aloft will allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop starting Thursday. A cool front will then proceed through early Friday morning bringing temperatures down to more seasonable. QPF amounts vary, but not expecting near the intensity experience across the southern plains. Bottom line is temperatures will top off near 79 with heavy cloud cover and thundershowers Thursday with a low around 60 as the cold front approaches. Temperatures will continue to fall with higher precip chances Fri and a high and low of 70/55. Rain should end by Sunday with partly cloudy skies and a high near 70.

Next Update:  Monday, March 26
Lead Forecaster:  Kyle Berry

Forecast for Monday, March 19

Highlights:
Persistance forecast with high temperatures in the low 80's and low's around 60.

Forecast:
As the upper level ridge and respondant low level southerly flow continue to amplify, our sensible weather will remain much of the same through Wednesday. All of the upper level dynamics are confined within the highly amplified trough over the central plains that will most likely cut-off and effect our weather for later this weekend. The only chance of precipitation looks to be Wednesday, and this will be highly dependent on how much instability is advected into our region that day. For now, the period looks to be mostly dry.

Next Update: Thursday March 22
Forecaster:  Kyle Berry

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