Storms likely Thursday, providing brief cool down and GREAT weekend!

Highlights:
Wednesday:  Sunny skies, with a high around 88 and a low near 61.
Thursday:  Storms likely, possibly severe.  Highs near 82 and lows around 67.
Friday:  Storms possible early, then gradual clearing throughout the day.  Highs near 75 and lows around 55.
Saturday:  Mostly sunny.  Highs near 75 and lows around 55.
Sunday:  Mostly sunny.  Highs near 84 and a low around 64.

Discussion:
Heading into the weekend, Wednesday looks to be the most summer-like day of this forecast with temperatures in the upper 80s and mostly sunny skies.  A brief northwesterly flow behind the cold front passing through the state Tuesday will help high pressure build in and clear skies.  This is, however, short-lived, as an abrupt change in our weather is expected Thursday.  Our well above normal temperatures will change as a potent upper-level trough ejects from the Dakotas late Wednesday and approaches the state during the day Thursday.

A springtime trough will bring a good chance at strong to severe storms Thursday and early Friday.

This trough will steepen lapse rates and help to develop a surface low over the Ozarks and Missouri, first lifting a warm front roughly to the I64 area and then dragging a cold front behind it.  The SPC has issued a slight risk for Thursday, and expected precipitation looks to be high.

A slight risk area that includes most of Kentucky has been issued for Thursday.

South-central KY looks to get some much needed rainfall Thursday.  Storms could last into Friday as well.

Models are varying with their solutiions that revolve around the speed of the trough approaching the state.  If the faster solutions prove to be more accurate, Friday will be mostly dry.  However, more of the models show that the trough and its attendant surface low will stick around for most of the day Friday, helping to output more rain, up to another half of an inch.

After the passage of Thursday/Friday's cold front, temperatures will be well below average for late May and early June.  For those of you who like springtime temperatures, you'll really enjoy this weekend as temperatures in the mid to upper 70s across the region and dry weather will make for a GREAT weekend!

Lead Forecaster:  Jeremy Young

Heat is coming with little rain in sight

Highlights:
Friday: Mostly sunny with a high near 93 and a low around 66.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high near 96 and a low around 68.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with a high near 98 and a low around 70.
Monday: Mostly sunny with a high near 92 and a low around 70.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain chances early.  High near 87 and a low around 60.


Discussion:
Memorial Day weekend will bring temperatures that are well above normal as a strong 500 mb ridge parks itself over the southeast.  It won't be until late Sunday that the ridge begins to breakdown, quickly helping temperatures to descend back toward normal temeperatures for this part of the late spring season.

The 588 dam line marks the "heat dome" that will help temperatures soar to levels as much as 15 degrees above normal.

Any precipitation will be hard to come by for most of the weekend, but Saturday and Sunday will reach temperatures that could be high enough to spark some convection across the area.  A destabilizing boundary layer, marked by dewpoints nearing the 70 degree mark advecting northward along a strong low-level jet, could be sufficient for a stray storm.  Any convection will be limited and short-lived.


It's not until Tuesday that a significant chance at rain will be present as an approaching front influences our weather.  Modeled 5-day precipitation totals show much of the state as relatively dry.  Whether or not this pans out will depend on how much moisture is available and if the front can strengthen any during its trek southward.

NOAA HPC 5-Day precipitation totals through Tuesday morning.

Early Tuesday, a cold front will be cutting across the Ohio River, helping to set off some showers and cool our temperatures.

Lead Forecaster:  Jeremy Young

Dry and warming conditions for the next couple of days

Highlights:
Monday:  Mostly cloudy with clearing as the day progresses.  High near 75 with a low around 56.
Tuesday:  Mostly sunny with a high near 80 and a low around 53.
Wednesday:  Fog possible early.  Mostly to partly sunny with a high around 83 and a low around 56.

Discussion:
A boring, summertime forecast is in store for us during the next couple of days as the trough that brought the Mother's Day rain slides eastward.  Sinking air, or subsidence, along the western edge of the trough will gradually clear skies Monday as high pressure builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Clear skies and gradual warming under the sunny conditions will lead to continual warming to temperatures that by Wednesday will be around 5 to 6 degrees above normal.

HPC Surface Map for Wednesday, May 16 7:00 AM

The only real points of interest for this forecast are whether or not we'll get any fog to form late Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, and how much cloud cover we'll experience from a weak front that will slide across the Ohio Valley during the day Wednesday.  Shown above is a surface map for early morning Wednesday, indicating a weak low pressure center over Illinois that will slowly track across the state with a cold front following it.  Strong ridging, however, as indicated by 500 mb height contours, will begin to also take effect at the same time.  Expect some scattered cloud cover Wednesday afternoon, but little to nothing in regards to rain.

NAM Forecasted 500 mb Height and Vorticity Fields for Wednesday, May 16.

Lead Forecaster:  Jeremy Young

Still near 10º above average each day with a consistent chance at showers and storms

Highlights:
-- Each day will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny.  Consistent chances for showers and storms across the area will manifest themselves in the early afternoon and early evening.

Thursday:  High near 85 with a low around 65.
Friday:  High near 88 with a low around 68.
Saturday:  High near 91 with a low around 69.
Sunday:  High near 91 with a low around 69.

Forecast:
The summertime weather pattern that has set up in the southeast won't be changing this weekend, with persistent southerly/southwesterly flow continually advecting warm air and additional moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Several areas of vorticity appear to be rounding the ridge this weekend, especially more potent one late Thursday afternoon and evening.  As these coincide with daytime heating, some strong and potentially severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out of the forecast.

Finally, by Sunday, a frontal boundary will approach the Ohio River from the north and become quasi-stationary, blocked by high pressure over most of the Atlantic.  For now, it doesn't look as though any break from the well-above average temperatures will come until Wednesday or Thursday next week.

A look at next Wednesday's forecast shows a cold front draped from the Huntington, WV area southwestward toward southern AR.  Until then, we'll be much warmer than normal for early May.

Lead Forecaster:  Jeremy Young