Heat returns....Storms late tonight?

     Once again the heat will impact the area with highs expected to reach the low to mid 90's with hotter temperatures over portions of far Western Ky.  Dew point temperatures will range from the mid 60's to around 70 degrees as humid conditions will prevail across the Bluegrass.  Heat indices are expected to reach the upper 90's to around 100 degrees.

     The SPC has issued their convective outlook for today showing a slight risk just north of the state.  A stronger disturbance to our north continues to drive a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) across parts of Michigan and Wisconsin.  These storms will continue to dive South and East through the next 24-36 hours and by doing so will affect northern parts of the state. The outflow of these storms are expected to move into our unstable region as CAPE across the state continues to show steady values ranging from 1000 - 1500 J/Kg.  This will allow for shower and storm development to occur across northwestern parts of Kentucky with expected movement across the south and east.  

The SPC has outlined the area just North of the state with a slight risk of severe storms.  

The area does include parts of Louisville while extending into and affecting some of the 

northern KY counties as well.  

                                                            The NOAA/HPC Tuesday Outlook. 

     For Bowling Green expect mostly sunny conditions with scorching temperatures.  Highs are expected to reach the mid 90's with heat indices around 100 degrees. Heading into the afternoon and evening hours, expect any storms affecting parts northern Kentucky to push southeastward into the area.  A few storms could be strong to severe with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.  Lows tonight will drop right around 70 degrees under partly cloudy skies.  The slight chance for storms will stick around into the overnight hours for the area with clearing skies expected by Wednesday morning.


---------------------------------

Quick Outlook:

- Wednesday will be another hot one with temperatures topping out in the mid 90's.  Sunny and humid conditions will prevail with heat indices expected around the century mark once again.  Light and variable winds are expected with winds becoming Northwest around 5-10 mph.

- Wednesday night will be mild with lows around 72 degrees. Look for  mostly clear conditions accompanied by light winds from the North around 5 mph.

- The heat will continue into Thursday, with highs around 98 degrees for the area. Hot temperatures with calm winds expected should make for another scorcher.

- Thursday night lows will drop to around 70 degrees under partly cloudy skies. We'll bring the chance for isolated showers and storms back into the area as we'll begin to turn our attention towards the next system moving in by Friday.

Forecaster: Chris Johnson

Potential for Severe Storms Tonight... and A Sunny Weekend

Friday Morning Update...
(10:05 am)
The storms that moved through yesterday evening didn't pack much of a punch as they moved into Warren Co. but they did bring some light rain.  Thunderstorm chances exist once again today (and thus the update) because the cold front that sparked yesterday's storms has yet to make it through the state.  A slight risk for severe thunderstorms has been outlined across much of north central KY, however it does not include Warren Co. at this time.  Nevertheless, this area might be extended in future outlooks later today as there is about a 30% chance of storms for us in Warren Co. this evening.  If any storms do impact us, the main threats will be high winds and some hail.

A slight risk of severe storms has been outlined by the Storm Prediction Center  for much
of north-central KY.  The slight risk comes very close to, but does NOT include Warren Co.

Otherwise expect a partly cloudy day and another warm one, though slightly cooler comparatively, with a high near 93.  If watches or warnings are posted for Warren Co. updates will be posted to our facebook and twitter pages.
------------------------------------
The weather in Warren County has once again been very hot during the first half of the week.  Yesterday’s high was just short of the century mark at the Bowling Green/Warren County airport at 99, while the heat index topped out at 109.  Today will be another hot one as highs will top out near 98, with heat indices once againt reaching the 105-110 range; a heat advisory is in effect through this afternoon.  However, slightly cooler temperatures are on their way for the coming days as a cold front is expected to move through Kentucky overnight.  The cold front comes with decent rain chances also; however rain may come in the form of severe storms late this afternoon and evening.

Today's forecast via NOAA/HPC.  Note the advancing cold front that
will be responsible for providing lift in an ustable airmass, thus creating storms.

Warm temperatures and very moist air ahead of the advancing cold front will create an unstable environment and thus the potential for severe thunderstorms.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed Warren Co. at the southern extent of the slight risk of severe weather.  The storms should impact Warren Co. after 5 pm with the primary risk being high winds.

Storm Prediction Center has outlined Warren Co. in a
Slight Risk for Severe Storms within the 15% high wind area.

There are indications that rain may continue for several hours as the precipitation stalls near south-central Kentucky and thus the potential for flash flooding will also need to be monitored into the evening hours.  Beyond this evening’s chance for storms, mostly sunny skies should dominate the weather this weekend.  Temperatures will be cooler especially after Friday as winds turn from the northwest and north Saturday and Sunday.

Keep up to date on severe weather watches and warnings by liking our Facebook page or following us on Twitter.

Thursday: Slight Risk for Severe Weather.  Head Advisory in effect.  Mostly sunny skies before increasing clouds and a 70% chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and into the overnight.  The primary risk with any severe storms will be high winds.  High near 98 with heat indices reaching the 105-110 range.  Breezy with southwest winds from 12-18 mph.

Friday: Mostly Cloudy skies will become partly cloudy with a 30% chance of thunderstorms.  Low near 74 with a high around 92.  West winds from 6-12 mph.

Saturday: Sunny skies with a low around 70 and a high near 92.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with a low near 68 and a high near 90.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

Heat & High Pressure

Wednesday Morning Update...
(10:50 a.m.)

It looks as though today will be a couple of degrees warmer than first expected and with the numbers leaning toward more dangerous heat an update seemed warranted.  Indications seem as though Bowling Green will likely reach a high near 100 today and with very muggy air, heat indices will likely reach the 105-110 range today.  With that said Warren Co. is under a Heat Advisory until 8 p.m.  Be cautious in the heat today.

Full blog update tomorrow morning on rain chances and even the risk for severe storms.

Tuesday Afternoon Update...
(5:46 p.m.)

Severe weather is possible this afternoon and the Storm Prediction Center has placed Warren County within the southern extent of the slight risk area for thunderstorms in the latest Day 1 outlook.  Furthermore the SPC has also issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 10 p.m.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for Warren County until 10 p.m.

An outflow boundary that extended from storms that moved through eastern Kentucky earlier today now extends along a line from just north of Owensboro to Elizabethtown to Somerset.  A few storms have fired along this line, some of which have been severe warned despite no severe reports as of this time.  While these storms will very slowly move southeast and will avoid Warren Co., further development is possible as the outflow boundary pushes south toward Warren Co and into an unstable atmosphere.  The main threat with these storms will be high winds though large hail is also possible.  The greatest risk of these storms will be between 7 and 10 pm.

SPC mesoanalysis (21Z) shows that the outflow boundary is moving into an unstable air mass.
Mixed-Layer CAPE values are in near 3500 J/kg surrounding Warren County.

At this time the risk of severe weather (or even storms at all) will be isolated unless storms can become more organized along the boundary.  Nevertheless the chance of severe storms with the primary risk of high winds has been outlined by the SPC with the latest outlook and the newly issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch and thus these storms require monitoring.
------------------------------------------
Since the storms moved through bringing heavy rain and high winds last Thursday, the weather has been fairly quite in Warren County.  Temperatures cooled somewhat with the high not even reaching the 90 degree mark on Saturday.  Don’t expect that to last however as the hot summer time ridge will once again be in control of our weather pattern this week which will leave south-central Kentucky hot and for the most part dry.

NAM surface forecast temperatures/pressure heights
for 21Z (4 pm) Wednesday. (Source: twisterdata.com)

Actually the center of ridge, which is currently centered over the Great Plains, will be sliding closer to the commonwealth toward midweek which will bring continued heat.  Generally temperatures in Warren Co. will be in the mid-90s to upper-90s but with moist air, heat indices may once again range from 100-105.  Rain chances during the first part of the week will be slim, but chances increase to a 20%-30% during the middle part of the week.  The best rain chances will come Thursday night into Friday.

Monday: Mostly sunny skies with hot temperatures and a high near 96. Heat indices may reach 100-105.  Southwest winds from 8-14 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with a low around 75 and continued heat with a high around 98.  Heat indices may reach 100-105.  West wind from 8-14 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny with a morning low near 75 and an afternoon high around 98.  Heat indices may reach 100-105. 20% of an isolated thunderstorm. West-southwest winds from 9-15 mph.

Thursday: 30% chance of thunderstorms.  Partly cloudy skies with a morning low around 74 and a high near 97.  Heat indices may reach 100-105.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

Severe Weather then... a Better Weekend

Friday Morning Update: We received a lot of beneficial rain yesterday evening as most of Warren Co picked up at least an inch of rain while some picked up closer to 2 inches.  2.28 inches of rain was recorded at the Bowling Green-Warren County Airport.  Just wanted to mention that the Storm Prediction Center no longer has Warren Co outlined within the Slight Risk area for severe storms for today; the threat will be further south into AL, MS, & TN.  Furthermore most of the rain and storms have already ended for the day and only a 30% chance of rain exists for the rest of the day.

----------------------------------------

Warren County has received a fair share of scattered thunderstorms during the first half of the week.  The warm weather also returned with heat index values reaching 106 on both Tuesday and Wednesday.  The ridge that built in over the past couple of days that brought the heat is sliding to the west, however, which is allowing a weather disturbance known as a shortwave to move through the Ohio Valley today into tomorrow.

RAP 500 mb relative vorticity for 21Z (4 p.m.) Thursday

 It is this shortwave (and associated surface low and front) along with warm temperatures and Gulf moisture that will lead to storms today through tomorrow, some of which could be severe.  In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has placed Warren County under a slight risk of severe weather for the threats of large hail and high winds for both today and tomorrow.

Slight risk for severe storms exists for much of the
Ohio Valley, including Warren County for today.

A slight risk for severe weather has also been
outlined to include Warren County by the SPC for tomorrow.

Storms are most likely to develop/move in from the north after 3 p.m. today and linger into the overnight hours.  More scattered severe storms a possible tomorrow morning.  For more details on the SPC's outlooks and the severe weather threat check out http://www.spc.noaa.gov/. Temperatures will still be warm before clouds and rain move into today with the mercury rising into the mid to upper 90s with heat index values once again at or above 105.  Due to the heat, a heat advisory has been issued for Warren County until 9 p.m. this evening.  Rain and thunderstorms chances exist for Friday morning though temperatures should be cooler due in part to rain and clouds.  The weather should begin to clear out by Friday afternoon and the cooler temperatures and partly cloudy skies should make for a decent weekend.

Thursday: Slight Risk of Severe Storms.  Heat Advisory in effect.  60% chance of thunderstorms some of which could be severe with large hail and high winds with the highest threat coming for this afternoon and into the overnight hours.  Otherwise it will partly cloudy and hot with highs near 98 and heat indices topping out near 105.

Friday: Slight Risk of Severe Storms.  60% of thunderstorms mainly in the morning with mostly cloudy skies and a morning low near 76. Clearing skies after noon should allow temperatures to warm to a high around 91.

Saturday: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies should prevail with a low around 72 and a high near 90.  20% chance of an isolated thunderstorm.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny skies once again.  Low near 72 and a high around 94. 20% chance of a thunderstorm.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

A Returning Ridge and Warmer Temperatures

Last week measured rainfall was recorded 6 out of 7 days of the week at the Warren County mesonet site with high temperatures generally in the 80s. This was due to a stationary front draped across the area along with enhanced rainfall due to an upper-level low pressure system. These features are being replaced with a ridge of high pressure which means a return to warmer temperatures and lesser rain chances.

NAM 250 mb height and wind forecast for 21z Tuesday (4 p.m.)

Due to the ridge moving back into our area, no organized rainfall is expected in the first half of the week and temperatures will once again be heating up.  While temperatures are only expected to reach the mid 90s, as apposed to the 100 degree heat of late June/early July, more moisture in the air will create high heat indices.  Tuesday into Wednesday the heat index is expected to range from 100-105 degrees, thus once again take heat precautions this week as the temperatures rise.  Rain chances do increase Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as the ridge slides westward allowing the flow around the high pressure to bring a better chance of thunderstorms into south-central KY.

Daily Forecasts:

Monday: A 20% chance of an isolated thunderstorm, otherwise partly cloudy with a high near 94.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny with a low around 73 and a high near 94.  Heat indices may range from 100-105.  20% chance of an isolated thunderstorm.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a low near 74 and a high around 95.  Heat indices may range from 100-105.  30% chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

Forecast 7/5-7/8

Today expected to be a warm one with the high pressure ridge building back in and heights rising. Some areas could reach 100 today depending upon cloud cover and afternoon storm development. The SPC has put Bowling Green in the slight risk for strong storms today. With multiple left over boundaries in the area, pin pointing the area that storms will develop is tricky. Showers and storms should be pop up in nature and very scattered. The models seem to agree that storms will likely develop off in the east and move in with scattered storms possible ahead of that development. The largest threat with these storms will be large hail and wind.

Friday will bring another chance of thunderstorm development from day time heating. Temperatures could top out in the 100's again with lows in the 70's. The ridge pattern is expected to hold out through Friday with high humidity making dangerous heat conditions.


Saturday and Sunday will have slight relief from the stout upper level ridge as it will move out with a cold front moving in sometime Sunday/Monday depending on which model you believe. This will bring a slight cool down in temperatures and a slight chance of storms all weekend.


Forecaster: EAY
Next Update: 7/16/12

Severe Storms Finally Bring Rain Relief to Bowling Green.

Around 2:30 pm CST storms began to initiate with help from a collectively induced  boundary draped across Western Kentucky into middle Tennessee finally bringing some rain for Warren County. A severe thunderstorm warning was issued for the cell that passed through around 3 pm CST. This cell had quarter inch hail associated with it as well as damaging winds in excess of 60 mph.

Visible satellite image of storms and boundary across the southeast around 3 pm CST.

RAP Mixing Ration analysis for 19z showing moisture convergence boundary.

Radar at 3:30 pm CST.

Forecaster: EAY