Isaac Brings a Wet Weekend!

Midday Saturday Update (1:48 p.m.)

Thus far only a few showers have impacted the Warren Co area due to the remnants of Isaac however rain with embedded storms appears likely this afternoon.  Taking a look at current radar imagery there is a line of rain and storms near Clarksville, TN that are headed northeast and should impact Warren Co between 3 and 4 pm.

Fort Campbell radar imagery around 1:30 p.m. Saturday.

There are also areas of new development ahead of the line which is already bringing rain to some areas.  Thus scattered showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous by this afternoon.  Meanwhile with more sunshine this morning than expected and with the rain holding off until the afternoon temperatures have been warmer than initially expected and temperatures should top out near 90 before becoming rain cooled.  Rain chances will also be high tonight especially into tomorrow as the remnant center of Isaac to our north during the day tomorrow.

12z Saturday run of the WRF model indicates rain
from the remnant Isaac impacting the area at 6 a.m. Sunday.

Rain could be heavy at times tonight through tomorrow night with generally 1-2 inches of rain expected through Monday afternoon.
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We have experienced a very sunny week here in southern Kentucky this week along with warm high temperatures in the low 90s.  Today however you may have noticed clouds were beginning to move into the area, especially this afternoon.  These clouds are in fact associated with the outer edges of the remnant of Isaac and these clouds will soon be bringing rain to the area.  The center of what is left of Isaac will be passing well off to our west near the Oklahoma/Arkansas border before it turns northeast moving through central Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.

This track will be close enough however to bring good rain chances to Warren Co and all of Kentucky.  In fact quite a bit of rain may fall by next Monday because the circulation will be moving so slowly to our west and north.  The Hydromeorological Prediction Center's latest rainfall forecast for the next 5 days indicates that we may receive 2-5 inches of rain with higher amounts near the Ohio River.

Rainfall could start as early as mid-day Friday and continue through Labor Day with the best chances for rainfall on Saturday and Sunday.  Keep in mind that there is still some uncertainty as to whether the the storm will track into northern Illinois/Indiana or further south near the Ohio River and northern Kentucky, depending on which track the storm takes will make a major difference on the rainfall totals in this area.  With that said, the northern track seems more unlikely due to a front stalling to our north, thus with the storm closer to us rain could be heavy Saturday night into Sunday.  Also note that because we will be on the southeast side of the system banding of the rain may occur and if it does rainfall could be heavy and lead to flash flooding.  One other thing to note is that an isolated tornado, while unlikely, cannot be ruled out due to our position respective to the center of the storm.

Friday: Mostly cloudy skies in the morning becoming cloudy by the afternoon with 60% chance of rain. Morning low near 72 and high around 87.

Saturday: Cloudy skies with a 60% chance of rain. Low around 74 and a high around 83.

Sunday: Rain is likely; 70%.  Rainfall could be heavy at times.  Morning low near 74 with a high around 82.

Check back to this blog for continued updates throughout the weekend as Isaac nears and the rain falls.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

A Quiet Week Ending With "Isaac" Impacts???

Tuesday Evening Update on Hurricane Isaac (10 p.m.)

Isaac officially became a hurricane today and has since made its first landfall in southeast Louisiana as an 80 mph hurricane.  The storm however is once again over open waters as it moves northwest at 8 mph according to the 11 pm EST advisory.  Concerning the updated thoughts on our concerns here in south-central Kentucky, forecast models have come into an agreement that the storm will not take the eastern path that was indicated as a possibility yesterday and thus impacts in Warren Co should not be major.  The current expected track would take the remnant storm well to our west in western Arkansas and Missouri with a turn northeast through Illinois and Indiana.

If this path verifies, though impacts will be minimal, increased chances for rain can be expected into the weekend.  The current Hydrometeological Prediction Center's 1-5 day rainfall predicts Isaac's heaviest rainfall along and just to the east of the expected path with about half inch to 1 inch predicted in our area.

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It’s has been warm and dry the past couple of days here in Warren Co as students move back in on the hill.  Today does bring a chance of a few showers however as a cold front slowly drifts into the area.  Rain chances are fairly low and showers should be scattered in nature.

Simulated Reflectivity from the 00z WRF model indicate
scattered showers near Warren Co at about 6 pm this afternoon.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler by Tuesday and Wednesday with partly to mostly sunny skies.  The big weather question of the week is that of where Tropical Storm (soon to be Hurricane) Isaac will make landfall and move inland? Furthermore, will its inland movement impact us here in Warren Co?  The problem is that this question is very difficult to answer due to the complexity of the situation and the way in which the forecast models are handling it.  To this point the forecast models have been very unreliable from run-to-run and have been consistently shifting the forecast track for Isaac further west.  As the situation stands now (stay tuned to the blog for further updates) some of the models bring the tropical system into central-southern Louisiana and move it inland into Oklahoma/Arkansas before a turn to the east and northeast.  If this situation were to unfold we here in Warren Co could possibly see the slight impacts by the weekend though the worst of the system would past to our west and north.  Other models bring the hurricane onshore near Biloxi, MS and eventually bring it inland into western Tennessee and just west of us.  Should this occur our impacts would be much greater from Isaac this weekend, with heavy rains possible.

The official forecast track/intensity map from the National Hurricane Center as of 7 a.m. CST Monday.

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (www.nhc.noaa.gov) takes the system in the middle of the road so to speak of the models with Bowling Green on the outer edge of the “cone of uncertainty.”  The major differences surrounding the models concern interactions with a ridge in the plains and trough in the east and the steering impacts they will have on the tropical system.  The bottom line is that the remnants of Isaac have the POTENTIAL to impact us here in Warren Co this weekend as thus changes in the forecast track need to be monitored closely.  While you’re keeping an eye on Isaac enjoy an overall quite start to the week.

Daily Forecasts:

Monday: Partly cloudy skies in the morning should become mostly cloudy by the afternoon and overnight with a 30% chance of a few showers.  High near 92.  Winds will switch from the southwest (morning) to the northwest (evening) and will be from 5-10 mph.

Tuesday: Decreasing clouds in the morning will make for a partly to mostly sunny day with a morning low around 68 and a high near 88.  Winds will be light from the north.

Wednesday: Sunny skies with a cool morning low near 59 and a high near 88. North winds a 5-10 mph.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny with a low near 61 and a high near 87.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

Tropical Storm Issac: Impacts for Warren County and Forecast 8/24-8/26

The long term forecast will show tropical storm Issac making land fall as hurricane by Monday (8/27). Below is the latest hurricane track image from the National Hurricane Center. The storm is forecast to be a category 1 hurricane as it makes landfall first in the Florida panhandle and eventually make it's way north west to impace Alabama and Mississippi.

Taking a look at this path, should Warren County be worried about the potential impacts of Hurricane Issac? Taking a look at the GFS long range forecast model, we see Isaac missing Kentucky and instead taking a path across Georgia and interacting with a trough extending through the Ohio Valley. As this occurs, the storm is absorbed into the main flow of the jet stream and moves east across Georgia.The timing is thought to be From Wednesday to Thursday (8/29-8/30). If the GFS solution is correct, we will only be experiencing a few stray showers and thunderstorms in the wake of Isaac. 

 

The model that has generally brought more confidence overall in the tracking of Isaac, however, is the ECMWF or European Model. This model is usually the most accurate all around model. If this model holds true, we would see more of an impact from Isaac beginning Friday (8/31). In this case, we are still looking at an extremely weakened system. It is likely that we will only see heavy rains and a few rumbles of thunder out of this system.

Weekend Forecast:

The weekend forecast looks to be fairly persistent with what we have experienced all this week. We are still under the influence of a weak trough in the Ohio Valley. This trough will be moving out with ridging building back in as we go into Friday afternoon and Saturday. This will cause temperatures to increase steadily. We will also be getting some of our moisture back which will create more humid conditions for the weekend. Sunday looks to bring a surface front along with another upper level trough axis into the area. At this time, it is expected to bring meager amounts of precipitation. As a result, we will see temperatures cool off a bit into Sunday and Monday.

OVERLOOK:

Friday: High: 90 , Low: 65

Saturday: High: 90, Low: 68

Sunday: High 90:, Low: 70

 FORECASTER: Emily Yates

Sunny Week Ahead! Forecast 6/20-6/22.

It's been a beautiful Monday in Warren County. Mostly clear skies and lots of sunshine. Temperatures were comfortable with a high of 80 and a low of 64. Currently, a trough axis extends over Illinois and Indiana. Short wave impulses traveling around this have been aiding in the development of showers to the northern part of the state this evening. This is expected to persist into tomorrow as another shortwave impulse rotates through. Rain chances will remain most likely to the north of Warren County as the trough continues to retrograde to the north east through tomorrow.

As the trough continues to move out, a dry out is in store. Conditions to remain dry into Wednesday as high pressure begins to build back in across the Ohio Valley. Wednesday should remain partly cloudy with highs in the mid-80's and lows in the mid-60's. The next chance for rain looks to be Monday of next week. Moisture will be our limiting factor until then. 

The lack of moisture should keep the dew points down and make for great outdoor conditions with low relative humidity. 

OVERLOOK:

Tuesday: High: 82, Low: 60, Partly cloudy conditions with a few showers possible.

Wednesday: High: 84, Low:63, Partly cloudy drying our from any lingering showers from Tuesday night. 

FORECASTER: Emily Yates

NEXT UPDATE: 8/22/12

Strong Storms Developing to the East

Strong line of storms headed for the Bowling Green area. The timing of their arrival should be around 9:00-10:00 pm CST. Severe Thunderstorm watch for Warren County until 12:00 am EDT. The main threat being damaging winds and heavy rain. Most warnings at this time are north of Bowling Green. The Storm Prediction Center has a Mesoscale Discussion out for our area. These storms are moving eastward along an outflow boundary. There is plenty of instability for these storms to feed on. Hail is not out of the question with the storms as well.

(Mesoscale Discussion)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1777.html
FORECASTER: Emily Yates

Forecast 8/15-8/18 Beautiful Wednesday Sunshine

We are currently experiancing a beautiful Wednesday as the clouds are beginning to move out. Temperature are warming up quickly today. High pressure is building in overhead helping to clear out the remaining cloud cover and keep temperatures climbing.

(Photo and data courtesy of kymesonet.org)

Thursday will bring our next chance at rain with a cold front moving into the region from the northwest. No severe weather is expected with this system. The best rain chances look to stay north of Bowling Green as the front passes through northern Kentucky Thursday afternoon/night. We may still see a few showers and storms develop and head our way. The main threat with these would be heavy rain and lightning. 

Friday will bring more high pressure into the Ohio Valley with clearing skies and a cool off after the passage of the cold front. As a strong northerly flow persists, this high pressure will be hanging around for the weekend. A trough axis over our area should keep temperatures on the cooler side. Expect a beautiful weekend with only a slight chance of thunderstorms of the pop up and scattered nature in the afternoon heating.

Thursday: High: 85 Low:70, slight chance of storms in the afternoon with an eventual clearing after passsage of the cold front.

OVERLOOK:

Expected temperatures and conditions:

Friday: High:80 Low: 65, Clear skies with only occasional cloud cover. 

Saturday: High: 82, Low: 68, Clear skies with only occasional cloud cover.

Sunday: High: 85, Low: 68, Clear skies with only occasional cloud cover. 

NEXT UPDATE: 8/18/12

FORECASTER: Emily Yates

Forecast 8/13-8/15 Some Rain Chances and Continued Cooler Temperatures

A line of showers has begun to develop off to the west. This line will move through later tonight bringing with it showers and thunderstorms. There are no warnings at this time and the main threat will be wind, heavy rain, and lightning.

More showers and thunderstorms are possible as the front and an area of low pressure make their way across the region. Destabilization from earlier peak through sunshine will help fire the additional storms.

A dry out is expected after midnight is expected. Skies will gradually clear Tuesday after the passage of the cold front with cool temperatures behind. Dry conditions are expected to persist into Wednesday with only a slight chance of storms in the pop up nature if we receive enough afternoon heating. High pressure will still be the most defining feature over the Ohio Valley into Wednesday. The next big chance for showers and storms will come Thursday as a warm front advances north over the area. The timing for showers and storms to fire would likely be in the late afternoon Thursday as daytime heating causes instability to increase across the area. 

OVERLOOK:

Expected Temperatures and Conditions:

Tuesday: High 80, Low 65: Clearing skies throughout the day and a light wind from the southeast.

Wednesday: High 85, Low 70 Rain chances increasing throughout the day with winds shifting more southerly. 

FORECASTER: Emily Yates
NEXT UPDATE: 8/16/12

A Stormy Thursday ahead....Cooler air set to move in.

     Current conditions across the region are shaping up for what will be a stormy Thursday for the Bluegrass. The current set up features a very evident outflow boundary situated over south-central parts of Illinois and moving southeastward. Look for storms to begin firing up ahead of the front just north of the state (Illinois and Indiana) by late morning early afternoon. 

The current surface analysis map valid for 12z from the HPC showing the stationary boundary extending from Northern KY through parts of Western KY.

     The front will continue to track southeastward and in return will help initiate storm activity over the area.  Cape values continue to look impressive as both the NAM and GFS match up very well. Strong values ranging from 2000-3000 J/kg cover a good portion of the state with juicy dew points in the upper 60's, low 70's.  This also matches up nicely with the SPC's forecast for severe weather.  The SPC continues to shows a slight risk for severe storms over much of Kentucky while extending from parts of the New England region through the Commonwealth and into the deep south.   

The latest SPC/NOAA categorical outlook for severe weather. The
highlighted yellow area covers a good portion of the Eastern U.S. with
a slight risk for severe storms over the region. 

     The low will travel just north of the state and push eastward before turning up into the New England region by Friday morning. The set up will drape a cold front across the region will unseasonable cooler air behind it. Much drier air with highs expected in the upper 70's, low 80's across the state should make for a comfortable change to wrap up the week. As far as rainfall is concerned, the HPC shows a decent shot with heavier amounts to our north. 

HPC map valid for 12z Thursday. Shows heavier precipitation just to
our north with local rainfall amounts around 0.5 - 0.75 inches of rain. 

HPC maps valid for 12z Friday. The precip. map somewhat outlines
the front with the Low well off to our Northeast by Friday morning.

     Expect rounds of showers and storms to begin into the afternoon and evening hours with a brief quiet period in between.  As the front tracks through the state, we will see another round of storms develop just ahead of the cold front. In return, a loud rumble of thunder and heavy rain could awake many across the state as the late round of showers and storms impact the area.  The main threat with these storms will be locally heavy rain, damaging winds, and cloud to ground lightning.  By early Friday morning, any lingering showers and storms should diminish and push eastward. Partly cloudy skies and cooler air will overtake the region as things look to dry up just in time for the weekend. Highs Friday will be cooler, but refreshing with temperatures struggling to break the 80 degree mark! 

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Quick Outlook:

Friday night: Cool, and becoming mostly clear. Low 59 degrees with light and variable winds from the   NW.

Saturday: Expect sunny conditions, with a high of 80 degrees. Light winds from the NW around 5 mph. 

Saturday night: Another cool, clear night with lows dipping down to a chilly 58 degrees. 

Sunday: Expect another nice day, with a high around 84 degrees under mostly sunny skies. 

Forecaster: Chris Johnson

     The weekend kicked off on a soggy note as early morning showers and storms move through parts of the state.  Dew points in the low to mid 70's caused unfavorable conditions temperature wise across the Bluegrass.  Highs topped out at 91 degrees across Bowling Green with humid conditions to go along with those hot temperatures. Heat indices across Bowling Green hit an uncomfortable 103 degrees by early afternoon as other counties across the area flirted with the century mark. By mid-afternoon, a weak line of storms developed across parts of Southwestern KY and tracked eastward through the area. Temperatures took a nose dive from 91to 78 degrees once the cloud cover and storms moved in.  The weak line of storms continued its eastwardly track but weakened through its travel.  Gusty conditions followed by a brief light rain, and a few rumbles of thunder was the extent of these storms.  Although the rain moved through, the clouds did not. Overcast conditions look to stick around through the evening and overnight hours and into your Sunday.  Lows will be mild as temperatures drop to a warm, but muggy 75 degrees.

     Heading into Sunday, things begin to look stormy across the region.  A cold front situated over the Northern Central Plains looks to track through the region by Sunday afternoon.  The SPC's latest map issued continuing to show a slight risk for severe storms the ENTIRE state. Dew points across the state will remain in the low 70's with an abundant amount of atmospheric moisture available to work with and in return will help trigger the development of these storms.  CAPE continues to show steady values across the area between 1500-2000 J/Kg for Sunday. Widespread showers and storms should prevail into the late morning, early afternoon hours.

The NOAA/HPC Forecast outlook for Sunday.  The cold front extending 

down from the Great Lakes into the Mississippi Valley will track through the 

Commonwealth from North to South bringing a slight chance for severe weather. 

SPC Categorical Outlook for Sunday showing a slight risk for 

severe storms over the entire state of Kentucky while extending well into 

the New England region. 

     Many areas continue to fight drought conditions especially parts of Western Kentucky.  The HPC map gives the idea that the system moving through Sunday will produce a decent shot at some rainfall. Much of the state is showing 0.75 - 1.50 inches of rain with the heaviest stemming in parts of Eastern KY.

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Quick Outlook:

- Sunday night the system should be exiting to our east as showers and storms are expected to come to an end. Low 72, under partly cloudy skies with light winds from the Southwest around 5-10 mph.

- Monday looks much better as conditions begin to dry out a bit. Expect clearing skies and sunny conditions with a high around 87 degrees.  Light winds from the Northeast around 5 mph.

- Monday night expect partly cloudy conditions with lows dropping around our average at 66 degrees.

- Tuesday we'll see mostly sunny skies with a high of 89 degrees. Mostly clear skies should continue into Tuesday evening and overnight with lows around 69 degrees.


Forecaster: Chris Johnson

Showers and storms possible late, early Friday....

     Conditions across the Commonwealth continued the hot slate the state has seen over the past month.  Sunny skies dominated the region as temperatures soared to the low to mid 90's.  Dew points hovered around the upper 50's to around 60 degrees helping keep humidity levels and heat indices less extreme.

     The current set up has a stationary front situated over the Central Plains that will continue to work into our region by Friday.  Winds will become more southerly and by midday Friday the deepening low pressure will continue sending moisture back into the area with dew points reaching the 70's.  CAPE values show a consistent 1500-2000 J/kg through the overnight hours helping spark these storms.  Some storms are expected to become severe with locally heavy rain, gusty wind, and possible hail.  These showers and storms are expected to take a more southerly track across the state as folks along and North of the I-64 corridor should remain dry.  

The NOAA/ HPC Friday Outlook

     The latest HPC map shows much needed precipitation falling over the driest parts of the state.  Far Western Ky counties are considered "exceptionally dry" as any rain would help ease those drought conditions. The map also backs up the idea of a more southerly track of this low across the region with parts of Northern Kentucky remaining dry. 

24-Hour HPC map valid for Friday 00z - Saturday 00z.  The maps

shows decent rainfall over Western Ky and into parts of Tennessee. 

     With showers and storms expected across the state, temperatures will be 5-10 degrees cooler than we had Thursday with cloud cover and the associated thunderstorms that will impact the area. Highs are expected in the mid to upper 80's across Kentucky under mostly cloudy skies for your Friday. 

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Quick Outlook: 

Saturday: Expect highs in the low 90's under partly cloudy skies as the chance for scattered showers and storms stick around.  Lows for Saturday will be on the mild side in the mid 70's with southerly winds around 5-10 mph.

Sunday: Highs Sunday will be a tad cooler with temperatures topping out in the upper 80's. Mostly cloudy conditions and storms should prevail over Sunday as we prepare for a better shot of some rain across the state. Expect Southwest winds around 7-10 mph.


Forecast: Chris Johnson