Rain Chances Friday but a Nice Weekend!

While areas from Paducah to Louisville have received several rounds of rain this week, south central Kentucky has stayed relatively dry.  A slow moving surface front has been located through the Ohio River Valley with several rounds of showers and storms moving along the front.  Some locations in Kentucky picked up 2 to 3 inches of rain in the last 3 days, while Bowling Green has only picked up 0.15 inches of rain.

Two day rainfall totals across central Kentucky and southern Indiana.  Several rounds of rain have brought 2-3 inches of rain to parts of Kentucky.  South-central Kentucky including Warren Co has remained comparatively dry.  Image courtesy of the NWS Louisville.

This front will be slowly making its way southward over the next 36 hours and should bring descent rain chances through Friday evening.  Rainfall amounts should generally be light across the area with anywhere from 0.1 -0.25 inches expected.

Friday's forecast surface map courtesy of the HPC that the front will be passing
through and should clear our area by Saturday.

Behind the front, a trough will deepen into the area which will bring a return to cooler temperatures and dryer air.  An upper-level low centered over the Great Lakes associated with the trough will bring some clouds in for Saturday and a light shower can’t be ruled out early.  This trough will continue to spin over the Great Lakes into Sunday before pulling out by Monday.  Overall however, the weather should make for a nice early fall weekend with temperatures in the mid 70s for highs while lows will return to the low 50s.  Our next weather maker looks to be in the form of a cold front which will impact us on Tuesday.

Daily Forecasts:

Friday: 40% chance of rain coming to an end by the afternoon.  Morning lows will be around 61 and afternoon highs will be near 74.  Winds will be out of the west to northwest from 3-7 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy skies will become partly cloudy with a stray shower possible.  Temperatures will be cooler with a low around 52 and a day time high around 74.  Winds will be from north between 4-8 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies with a low near 50 and a high around 78.  West winds from 5-10 mph.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

Cool Start to a Nice Day! Is Rain on the Way?

The first weekend of fall brought with it fall like weather.  Saturday and Sunday brought beautifully sunny skies with temperatures falling from high near 80 on Saturday to a high of only 68 on Sunday behind the cold front.  Overnight lows took a dive as well falling to 37 this morning at the Warren Co mesonet site as a result of clear skies and calm winds.  Temperatures will be rebounding throughout the first part of this week however.  The trough that has brought the cool temperatures will be retreating to the north which will allow temperatures to begin warming back up throughout the week.  After a very nice day in the low 70s today, 80s will return to south-central Kentucky for highs by Tuesday.

The NAM surface pressure/winds/temperature forecast for 4 pm Tuesday with analyzed fronts. Green arrows indicate moist air coming to the Ohio Valley from the Gulf of Mexico.

The high pressure system that is currently centered directly over Kentucky will be sliding southeastward.  The position of the high pressure system by Tuesday and a weak cold front from the Great Lakes to the Midwest will create a strong low-level jet which will bring in warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico.  Winds could be quite blustery Tuesday, blowing out of the south-southwest from 15 to 20 mph.  As far as any precipitation is concerned, forecast models generally agree that an axis of rainfall will setup just to the south of the cold front.  For us here in southern Kentucky current thinking is that heaviest of the rainfall will remain along and north of the Ohio River.  Still yet, increased clouds and the chance of rain do enter the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Our best chance of rain comes Wednesday afternoon as the washed out front comes ever closer.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center’s 1-3 Day QPF or quantitative precipitation forecast.

A glance into the late week pattern reveals more of an east-to-west flow which generally spells quite weather for our area; however, a few small disturbances may pass just to our north which will mean slight rain chances through late week.

Daily Forecasts:

Monday: Another gorgeous sunny fall day with temperatures warming to a high near 73.  Light southeast to southerly winds from 3 to 8 mph.

Tuesday: After a morning low near around 54 temperatures will warm to a high near 83.  Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy at times with a 30% chance of rain.  Winds will be blustery out of the south-southwest from 15 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy skies early becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a 40% chance of rain.  Lows will be near 63 with an afternoon high around 85.  Southwest winds from 8 to 14 mph.

Thursday: A 20% chance of a shower in the morning before giving way to a partly cloudy day.  Low near 64 and a high around 84.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

Week Ahead

Currently, there is a cold front extending from Wisconsin down to New Mexico.  Behind this cold front there are high temperatures in the 60s with low temperatures in the 40s.  This cold front will impact our area Tuesday night and temperatures will continue to drop Wednesday.  Currently in Bowling Green the temperature is 69 with light to moderate rain at times.  This is being caused by a surface low that is located over Louisiana which is bringing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.  This low will slide into our area and be absorbed in with the cold front generating decent rain amounts in the eastern parts of the state.  Tonight expect the temperature to fall to 62 with rain in the area, so be sure and have your umbrella handy!  Tomorrow the cold front will continue to push through our area.  I am expecting the showers to be over by 10:00 in the morning.  The low temperature for tomorrow will be 61 with a high of 71, with winds out of the northwest at 10kts.  On Wednesday be sure and have a light jacket as temperatures will drop throughout the day.  Temperatures on Wednesday will start out at 70 then low temperatures will end at 44. 

Above is the Surface Map for Tuesday, September 18.

Forecaster:  Tyler Binkley

Weekend Outlook

Currently, there is a surface cold front draped across Michigan's Upper Peninsula with a SW orientation through Iowa into the Texas panhandle. The upper level support over the surface low situated in northern Quebec is strong, but my concern resides in the strength of the stated front. Models are not showing high moisture content for our area because of the shielding effect the retreating high pressure created. The moisture inflow from the Gulf of Mexico is significant in Texas with the nose extending north-northeast into Louisiana and Arkansas. The front is shown to pass through central Indiana into Friday, but not fully impacting our area before losing strength and dissipating into Saturday. Wedged between two strong high pressure systems, the front loses its ability to progress, not to mention the lack of moisture present. High pressure is shown to once again dominate our area on Saturday into Sunday.

The HPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecast showing Friday morning between Saturday morning.

What does this mean all bundled up? Look for more of the same temperatures today as the previous couple of days with a high in the middle 80's and a low tomorrow morning in the mid 60's. For Friday, cloud cover should proceed the front, and we will keep highs in the mid 70's and lows in the low 60's. Any amount of precipitation will be Friday evening into Saturday, but models are struggling to show a trace with consistent probability. Expect some relief from the struggling front with the high temperatures for Saturday and Sunday in the mid to upper 70's and lows in the mid 50's.

Forecaster: Austin Boys

Beautiful Few Days

Currently, we are amidst a dominant surface high pressure, which implies sinking air that spreads at the surface. Which is why today was clear, beautiful, and the essence of fall with winds out of the northwest. Looking out to Wednesday, the models aren't showing anything of significance to ruin our run of sun. By Wednesday, the upper level ridge is shown to break down and begin moving east of us while the surface high will make it's way east as well. This will cause us to have southerly winds to begin around Tuesday, bringing more moisture into the region. With this said, look for more of the same of today's weather through Wednesday, with slight rises in the high and low temperatures for each successive day. Chances for precipitation are depicted as minimal, so enjoy building that late summer tan.

Days at a glance:
Monday:       High 82     Low 55
Tuesday:       High 85     Low 57
Wednesday:  High 87     Low 63

Forecaster: Austin Boys

Friday's Cold Front Update

Looking towards the rest of our afternoon and evening, the models are overly exaggerating a pre-frontal line of storms projected to impact our area this afternoon. Nashville's NWS radar is displaying no evidence of what the models are showing for this hour, so we will continue to monitor the reflectivity. As for the frontal passage tonight, this is the bigger focus for the day. The models are projecting it to pass through the area late this evening with the focus between 10PM to Midnight. This cold front will bring a greater chance of measurable precipitation and stronger winds than this afternoons disturbance. Behind the front will be much cooler and drier air in time to enjoy Grandparent's Day on Sunday with highs ranging in the lower to mid 70’s and lows dipping into the mid 50’s for your weekend.


Below is the HRRR Model image showing the projected frontal passage for tonight around Midnight

Forecaster: Austin Boys

Cruising to the Weekend

The line of storms that passed through Warren County Wednesday evening proved more of a temporary relief from the humidity than a severe weather threat. Finishing out the work week, muggy and similar conditions are likely to continue with no apparent air mass transition. Looking into the weekend, the main feature of focus is a moderate cold frontal passage depicted to pass through the area on Saturday with a quarter to a half inch of rain probable according to model output. However, the HPC's precipitation forecast is calling for upwards of two inches. Following behind will be a high pressure system that will settle in to start the new week on a mild and dry note, and might require you to shake the dust off your favorite sweatshirt. Be alert for updates for this approaching cold front.

Hydrometeorologic Prediction Center qualitative precipitation forecast for Saturday

Daily Temperatures:

Thursday:  High: 92       Low: 70
Friday:      High 93        Low: 71
Saturday:  High 83        Low: 61
Sunday:    High 71        Low: 57


Forecaster: Austin Boys

More Rain Chances & Warm Midweek!

Scattered showers with heavy rain at times impacted Warren Co over the weekend as the remnant of Isaac brought added moisture and lift to the area.  Much needed rainfall did occur in the area; most locations picked up around an inch.

Some area rainfall totals include:
0.72 - Bowling Green/Warren Co Airport
1.18 - Warren Co Mesonet Site
1.38 - CoCoRHS Site Near Smith's Grove
1.49 - Barren Co Mesonet Site
2.26 - CoCoRHS Site 7.2 Miles WNW of Brownsville (Edmonson County)

3 day rainfall totals ending Monday at 8 am.  Image courtesy of NWS Louisville.

A few showers will hang around today and clouds should persist as well to make for a gloomy Labor Day holiday.  Tomorrow afternoon however clouds should begin to clear as the remnants of Isaac push east.  Though, a trough will begin to dig into the Ohio valley by mid to late week and thus scattered clouds with slight chances for rain will persist throughout the week.  Furthermore an associated cold front is likely to slide through Thursday afternoon bringing with in enhanced rain/thunderstorm chances.  Otherwise temperatures will once again be warming up and with high in the low to mid 90s for Wednesday and Thursday.

Daily Forecast:

Monday (Today): Cloudy skies with showers and mist; 70% chance of rain. High around 82. South or southwesterly winds 4-10 mph.

Tuesday: Cloudy skies through midday with fog possible and a slight chance of a shower in the morning with a low around 71.  Skies should become partly cloudy by the afternoon with a high near 89.  Light northwest to north winds.

Wednesday: Morning fog possible with morning low near 70.  Partly cloudy skies and warm with a high near 93. Winds will be light increasing between 5 and 10 mph out of the south by the afternoon.  20% chance of a thundershower in the evening.

Thursday: Partly cloudy skies with a morning low around 72 and hot with a high around 95. 30% chance of thunderstorms.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani