Out with the Rain... In with the Cold!

The sun is currently shinning hear in south-central Kentucky after clouds and rain moved in yesterday afternoon and lingered through the night and into the morning hours. Around a half inch of rain was common across Warren County; the airport in Bowling Green picked up 0.47". The storm system which brought in the rain is now moving along the east coast and is taking all the gloomy weather along with it. No real cold air is moving in immediately behind the system making for a fairly nice early afternoon across the areas with temperatures rising into the low 50s. This is actually 5-10 degrees above average for this date. Don't get used to the warmer temperatures however because a front is quickly approaching from the northwest and behind it is much colder air. Clouds from the front will begin moving in during the next few hours and cold air will be filtering in. There could be some light drizzle or even a snow flurry overnight into tomorrow morning but certainly precipitation, if any, should be very light with no impacts expected. By tomorrow morning temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 20s and highs will only climb to the mid 30s tomorrow afternoon under mostly cloudy skies.

Colder air will be filtering in tonight behind a cold front which is moving through the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile the system that brought the overnight rain is exiting to the northeast.

By tomorrow evening into the overnight hours, skies should begin to clear. Mostly sunny skies are expected for the final day of 2013 which should allow temperatures to rise into the low 40s after a cold start in the low 20s. In fact, the quite weather should continue into the start of 2014 as temperatures remain in the 40s for highs on Wednesday. The next weather maker will approach Wednesday evening and into Thursday morning. Precipitation looks possible as a disturbance moves in from the northwest. The depth and strength of the disturbance remains a question mark and thus the confidence in precipitation at this time remains low. These factors will also play a role in determining precipitation type. If the system moves to our north (and it should) and becomes more intense (remains questionable) warmer air will be drawn up from the south into our area thus creating better chances for precipitation in the from of primarily rain possibly switching to and ending as light snow early Thursday. In either scenario, precipitation, no matter the type, will be light (if any at all) and no impacts are expected at this time. Of course, with the system still being several days away, the forecast is subject to change and the system will be monitored for any greater impacts. The system will quickly depart Thursday morning and another round of cold air will filter in to end the week.

Daily Forecasts:

Tonight: Cloudy skies with a chance of light drizzle or even a flurry. Northwest winds at 5 -10 mph. Turning colder with a low near 26.

Monday: Cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with a few flurries slightly possible before noon. Chilly with a high around 35 and winds north to northwest at 3 - 8 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy skies early becoming partly to mostly clear by morning and cold with a low near 22.

New Year's Eve (Tuesday): Mostly sunny skies and cool with a high near 41. West winds from 4 - 10 mph.

New Year's Eve Night: Mostly clear skies with a low around 26. Light and variable winds.

New Year's Day (Wednesday): Partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy during the evening. High near 48. Southerly winds a 4 - 10 mph.

New Year's Day Night: 30% chance of light rain or snow; otherwise cloudy with a low around 32.

Thursday: 30% chance of light rain or snow early. Cloudy skies will become partly cloudy by afternoon. Cold with a high around 34.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

Typical Winter Weather Expected, Including a Chance of Snow

Days at a Glance:

Friday:
High: 51 Low: 27  Skies will remain clear and sunny with winds out of the SSW between 5-7 mph.

Saturday:
High: 53 Low: 37 Skies will remain mostly sunny during the day, but will change to mostly cloudy skies as the day ends as the chance of some rain showers increases into the evening hours.  Winds will start out from the SSW around 6 mph, but will weaken to calm winds around midnight.  Chance of rain 20%.

Sunday:
High: 50 Low: 29 Skies will be cloudy throughout the morning with the chance of a rain shower, but will clear up before noon to partly cloudy skies.  Snow showers are possible during the evening hours, although little to no accumulation is expected.  Winds will be coming out of the WSW between 6-8 mph.  Chance of precipitation: 30%.

These are the estimated rain totals for Saturday into Sunday with Bowling Green, KY only getting between 0.10" and 0.25" of rain.

Discussion:
The weather for our area has been kept clear by a dome of high pressure, however, that high pressure system will be pushed out of the way by a cold front bringing in cooler temperatures.  This will set up the stage for some rain to make its way into our area late Saturday into early Sunday.  The rain is expected to take a small break during the day Sunday, but then it is expected to return Sunday evening, but unlike it did in the morning, it may fall as snow instead of rain.  As of now, there is a very small chance that any accumulation of snow will occur during the night Sunday.  We can also expect very little accumulation of rain.  So enjoy it while it lasts, because the weather will change after this weekend.

Forecaster: Will Paschall

Bringing Back Winter Just in Time for Christmas

From all of us in StormTopper Network, we wish all of you Happy Holidays!!!!

Days at a Glance:

Monday:
High: 37 Low: 18 Skies will remain mostly sunny during the day, then change over to partly cloudy skies this evening.  Winds will be coming out of the NNW around 8 mph throughout the course of the day and into tonight, resulting in single digit wind chill values this evening.

Tuesday (Christmas Eve):
High: 27 Low 18 Skies will remain mostly sunny during the day with clear skies at night.  Winds will start out coming out of the NNW around 8 mph resulting in single digit wind chill values early in the day.  Winds will change to light and variable out of the south, which will not cause much of a wind chill.

Wednesday (Christmas Day):
High: 41 Low: 25 Skies will be sunny changing over to partly cloudy skies at night.  Winds will start as light and variable out of the south, but it will quickly change to a SSW wind between 5-8 mph.

Thursday:
High: 42 Low: 23 Skies will be mostly sunny throughout the day with clear skies at night.  Winds will start out of the west between 5-8 mph, changing over to a light and variable winds out of the ENE by sunset.

This is an outlook for what temperatures will be Christmas morning.  With the dark blue representing low 20s,  it is safe to say that if you are going anywhere Christmas morning, you are going to want to bundle up.

Discussion
The cold front responsible for the severe weather we had on Saturday pushed through our area yesterday bringing with it some cold temperatures.  For the first part of this week, we can expect temperatures to stay below 40 as a center of high pressure brings in cold air from our north. As the week progresses, the center of high pressure will begin moving off to our east, which will change the wind direction, thus bringing in slightly warmer air.  This warmer air will cause our high temperature to become warmer, but the temperatures will drop below freezing once the sun goes down.  So bust out those winter coats and fix you up some hot cocoa, because "Baby, It's Cold Outside."

Forecaster: Will Paschall

Warm and Soggy Weekend Expected

Discussion:

Its been a quiet week in weather so far, but that will certainly change by this weekend. Currently, the temperature at the Warren County airport is 46 degrees (4:00 P.M. CST) with a dew point of 17 degrees (4:00 P.M. CST). A combination of clear skies and southwesterly winds this week has kept it feeling pretty warm outside. This trend will only continue as we head into tomorrow. Tonight, mostly clear skies will allow the low temperature to dip right around freezing. Tomorrow will be the best day of the week as southerly winds really get kicking up in the morning allowing the high temperature tomorrow to make a run into the upper 50s and possibly near 60 degrees! Winds will be a little stronger tomorrow than they have all week as southerly winds will be sustained around 10 to 15 mph as moisture surges up from the Gulf of Mexico. This moisture will bring some clouds with it, and by late afternoon Thursday we will see a mix of sun and clouds.

5-day Precipitation forecast issued by the Weather Prediction Center for tonight through Monday night. This forecast shows the potential for 4"+ of rainfall to fall throughout the weekend in Southern Kentucky. Courtesy: WPC

Starting Thursday night, precipitation chances enter the forecast until nearly Sunday evening as a very wet weekend is in store for Kentucky. Aloft, a southwesterly flow will allow for a series of disturbances to move over the area from now until Sunday. At the surface, southerly winds will continue pumping moisture into the area which will create a very moist air mass by Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation chances look very slim Thursday night but increasing cloud cover will limit the temperature from falling too much as the low Thursday night looks to be around 50 degrees. Friday will be a cloudy day, but high temperatures will reach the lower 60s during the afternoon Friday. A weak area of low pressure will move northeast across a stalled front north of us, allowing for showers during the day Friday. These showers should not be too heavy, and precipitation amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch for southern Kentucky. Showers will continue to increase Friday night, and by Saturday morning our rain chances look to increase. A stronger area of low pressure in Texas will be moving northeast across the area on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures on Saturday morning through Sunday morning will remain steady in the lower 60s, with near-record dew points in the lower 60s creating a very moist air mass for this time of year. These exceptional dew points could cause some heavy rain issues during this period as any precipitation that falls will have ample moisture to create very heavy rainfall rates. Rainfall will be steady on Saturday and Saturday night, and weak instability Saturday night could create a few rumbles of thunder as well. As the area of low pressure continues moving to the northeast on Sunday, a cold front will sweep across the area by mid-day lowering temperatures into the 30s and 40s by Sunday night. There could be a few thunderstorms associated with the front moving through Sunday morning, but as of right now no organized severe weather is expected. After all is said and done, Warren county could end up seeing 1-4 inches of total rain by Sunday afternoon, with isolated higher amounts. With this being said, it is important to be prepared for heavy rains this weekend, especially on Saturday through early Sunday.

Days at a Glance:

Tonight: Low - 32 Winds - S 5-7 mph.
Precipitation - 0% Skies - Mostly Clear.

Thursday: High - 59 Low - 49 Winds - S 10 to 15 mph.
Precipitation - 10% chance of an isolated shower after midnight Thursday night.
Skies - Partly Cloudy skies Thursday giving way to Cloudy skies Thursday night.

Friday: High - 63 Low - 57 Winds - S 10 to 20 mph.
Precipitation - 70% chance of showers. Rainfall amounts of less than 0.1" Friday. Rainfall amounts 0.25"-0.5" Friday night. Skies - Cloudy.

Saturday: High - 65 Low - 61 Winds - S 10 to 20 mph.
Precipitation - 90% chance of rain. A few thunderstorms could be possible Saturday night. 1"+ of rainfall is possible. Skies - Cloudy.

Sunday: High - 62 Low- 33. Temperatures will fall throughout the day. Winds - S 10 to 20 mph turning NW 5 to 15 mph by Sunday night.
Precipitation - 70% chance of rain during the day Sunday. A few thunderstorms could be possible Sunday morning. Skies - Cloudy.

Forecaster: Zack Leasor

Warmer Weather on the Way!

Discussion:

Winter has surely shown its face the past few weeks as Warren County has not seen temperatures over 50 degrees since December 5th! Luckily, quiet weather this week will usher in warmer temperatures by midweek. Currently, the temperature at the Warren County airport is 32 degrees with winds W around 5 mph. These winds will diminish as the evening progresses. Visible imagery satellite has shown an extensive area of clouds over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys today. These clouds will be here throughout the evening and the temperature will be slow to decrease this evening. Skies will remain mostly cloudy overnight as the temperature drops into the middles 20s. As the cloud cover dissipates Monday morning winds will turn to the south, finally delivering some warmer temperatures!

Day 3 surface analysis valid 12Z Wednesday 12/18/13 showing a center of high pressure right over the Tennessee Valley. Courtesy: WPC

This week will remain very calm weather-wise. High pressure will be building in from the southwest over our area. This means mostly clear skies and southwesterly winds will be the forecast for the first half of the work week. High temperatures will range from the middle 40s on Monday and Tuesday to around 50 degrees on Wednesday afternoon! We have a shot at near 60 degrees on Thursday before another round of precipitation moves in for the weekend. We will keep an eye of this round of precipitation for the potential to produce heavy rainfall.

Days at a Glance:
Tonight: Low - 26 Winds - Light and variable.
Precipitation - 10% Skies - Cloudy becoming Mostly Cloudy.

Monday: High - 44 Low - 33 Winds - SW 5 to 10 mph.
Precipitation - 0% Skies - Partly Cloudy.

Tuesday: High - 48 Low - 32 Winds W 5 to 10 mph.
Precipitation - 0% Skies - Partly Cloudy.

Wednesday: High - 52 Low -39 Winds S 5 to 10 mph.
Precipitation - 0% Skies - Partly Cloudy.

Forecaster: Zack Leasor

Weekend Rainmaker

Days at a Glance:
Friday: Very chilly morning low in the upper teens rising to a high in the upper 40's. 5-6 mph SSW winds slightly shifting SSE throughout day under increasing cloudy skies into the afternoon. 70% chance of scattered light rain/wintery precip/snow showers/drizzle beginning late afternoon/evening switching over to widespread moderate rain showers into the overnight hours.

Saturday: Begin in the mid 30's rising to mid 40's. 5-6 mph SE winds shifting to 10-12 mph NW winds into afternoon and evening under overcast skies. 100% light to moderate rain showers dissipating mostly by noon with light rain drizzle throughout the remainder of the day. Total rainfall accumulations averaging 1/2 of an inch and staying under 3/4 of an inch.

Sunday: Low in the upper 20's rising to the mid 30's. 8-10 mph NW winds shifting to 5-6 mph SW winds late evening under sunny skies as clouds clear out in the morning hours. No precipitation anticipated.

Discussion:
Someone must have been doing the rain dance because rain is on the way for the first half of the weekend. After an overall cold week, temperatures will moderate slightly bringing rain with it. The surface high pressure that parked over us yesterday into today will be shifting to our east overnight into tomorrow. A low pressure system will pass directly over our area from the SW. This will bring widespread light to moderate rain showers overnight Friday into Saturday morning. A slight wintery precip/snow/rain mix is possible Friday afternoon as the dry atmosphere continues to saturate but the very light intensity, relatively short duration, and above freezing surface temperatures will lead to negligible impacts. Even though a majority of the rain is moving out around noon Saturday, lingering rain drizzle will stay for the remainder of the day before fully dissipating into the evening and overnight hours.

Weather Prediction Center's Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (total precipitation accumulations in inches) from 6am Friday morning to 6am Saturday morning.

Another cold blast of all too familiar Arctic air will rush into the area behind the cold front Saturday evening and overnight into Sunday morning under clearing skies. This will keep Sunday's temperatures like much of this past week in the low to mid 30's under mostly sunny skies.

Forecaster: Austin Boys

Snow Update

The overnight forecast is still quite tricky but not as significant as first thought. High resolution model for short-term (hourly) use is showing the scattered snow showers traveling just to our NW while widespread rain showers travel just to our south and east. Current radar trends tend to agree with this. Any precipitation that falls will have a good chance of sticking since temperatures are just below freezing, but luckily we will see little to none falling. The greatest chances are NW portions of the county for light snow flurries and the SE portions of the county for isolated freezing rain showers with both attaining little to no accumulations and minor impacts. The greatest impact should be isolated slick spots on rural and secondary roads in south and eastern portions of the county. Any precipitation will have exited the area by daybreak tomorrow.

The forecast for the remainder of the period remains unchanged with the next forecast coming on Thursday evening.

Forecaster: Austin Boys

Will Snow Re-enter the Forecast?

Days at a Glance:
Monday: Low of 32 only rising to a high of 35 under overcast skies. S winds switching to NW before daybreak at 8-12 mph. No precipitation expected until midnight into the overnight hours.

Tuesday: Start at a chilly 23 rising to 37 under mostly sunny skies with clouds clearing into the evening hours. N winds switching to W throughout the day at 8-12 mph. 40% chance of wintery precipitation beginning around midnight and dissipating around sunrise. Light accumulations anticipated with exact type still in question.

Wednesday: Begin at a chilly low of 18 rising to a high of 35 under mostly sunny skies with clouds increasing into the afternoon before clearing overnight. Winds light and variable. No precipitation expected.

Thursday: Low around 21 with the high temperature staying below freezing under sunny skies. N winds at 5-7 mph. No precipitation expected.

Discussion:
Isolated showers that impacted and moved out of our area this evening are part of a system predominantly impacting areas SE of us with widespread rain. We only accumulated .02 inches worth between 7-8pm, but at least its plain old rain and not the freezing kind. Temperatures will drop around the freezing mark tonight before cooler air enters the area tomorrow morning under NW winds. This colder air is associated with a dry cold front which will keep temperatures fairly constant throughout the day with a high of 35 under cloudy skies.

Question mark in the snow symbolizing the paragraph below.

The big question mark for this forecast period is a small disturbance passing through the area Tuesday morning before daybreak. Models are having a tough time agreeing on the type of wintery precipitation and whether any will fall at all, hence the 40% confidence. There will be an update forecast concerning this disturbance tomorrow night with the rest of the forecast to remain intact.

Following the potential for wintery precipitation, precipitation will stay clear of the area for the remainder of the forecast period. However, clouds may increase into the afternoon on Wednesday as a dry cold front advances another Arctic blast of air into the area. This will be felt most noticeably on Thursday as a strong high pressure parks over us. Temperatures will stay below freezing under sunny skies. Overall, it will be a rather cold first half of the week.

Forecaster: Austin Boys

Round 2: Saturday Night/Sunday Morning Ice Potential

As promised, we wanted to provide an update concerning the 2nd round of wintry precipitation which is expected overnight and into Sunday morning. The NWS in Louisville has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Warren County from 11 pm tonight until 2 pm Sunday for potential icing. This round is expected to have greater impacts than yesterday's minor icing event.

Event Outline:

Timing: 11 pm Saturday - 10 am Sunday

Hazard: Freezing rain/ice possibly mixed with sleet early

Amount: 0.10" - 0.20" of ice accretion; minor sleet accumulation possible

Impacts: Roads surfaces could become icy thus impacting travel early Sunday morning. No tree, etc damage is expected.

High Resolution NAM indicates a scattered area of light freezing rain across much of south-central Kentucky at 4 am Sunday morning.

Discussion: Yet another round of freezing rain/ice is expected to begin this evening between 11 pm - 2 am in association with a another weather disturbance. Precipitation could start out as freezing drizzle as early as 11 pm and then pick up in intensity to light freezing rain (possibly mixed with sleet) around or just after 2 am. The precipitation will move in from the south to the north. Temperatures will already be below freezing when precipitation moves in, very unlike our previous round of wintry weather. In fact, temperatures are expected to be in the upper 20s as precipitation begins creating the potential for quick ice accumulation. Furthermore, temperatures will be below freezing or at freezing for over 24 hours leading up to tonight's event since temperatures are only expected to reach 32 for a high today. This means that road temperatures will be much colder than they were a day ago with the last event. Thus the potential for icing on roadways (especially untreated roadways) will be much greater than with the previous event. The best potential for icing will occur between 3 am and 9 am which is when precipitation will be most intense while temperatures are below freezing. Ice accumulations are expected to range from 0.10 - 0.20". Precipitation is expected to continue through much of the day Sunday, however temperatures are expected to rise above freezing at which time freezing rain will change to plain old rain. Temperatures are expected to rise above freezing between 7 am and 10 am. Obviously the sooner temperatures rise above freezing the less ice amounts we will see. Nevertheless, the main thing to take away from this event is that at least up 0.10" of freezing rain/ice is expected tomorrow morning and it only takes a very small amount of ice to create travel problems. Temperatures are expected to rise to near 40 by the afternoon on Sunday.

Again, for quickly updating information stay informed by "liking" us, Warren County Wx on Facebook or by "following" us @WarrenCountyWx on Twitter. Also the NWS in Louisville has complied a great outline for the event which can be found on their website: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

Winter Weather Update

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect until 6 am Central Time Saturday!

At 2:00 pm central time, the temperature was hovering at 33 at the Bowling Green/Warren County airport. The temperature has been hovering between 32/33 for some time now. The temperature at Smith's Grove is 32.2 degrees. The drop to freezing and below the freezing mark seems on pace with the earlier forecast of 3 pm or later. However, precipitation is lingering well back into Arkansas and thus some minor adjustments to the forecast seem warranted. While little to no ice is forming in BG at this time (keep in mind it needs to drop below 32.0 for ice to form, at 32.2 this will not occur), the temperature should drop ever so slowly to allow ice to begin forming on most elevated surfaces by 5 pm. Some reports from N Warren county have been received of at least minor icing. Road temperatures just to our south in Simpson county remain in the upper 30s (38.1 on I-65 in Franklin) and thus ice is not expected to form on roadways until later this evening. Keep in mind that traveling northward will result in running into worsening conditions quickly. Accidents have been reported north of Morgantown on the Natcher Parkway.

Radar as of ~2:45 pm

Thus the forecast... rain is changing to freezing rain across Warren County now (from NW to SE) as temperatures fall to and below 32. Expect minor icing to begin in the next 2-3 hours in Bowling Green. Moderate freezing rain will continue through the afternoon as temperatures drop. Ice accumulations are expected to range from 0.10 to 0.20 with increasing amounts as you more north and west; up to 0.25 is possible in NW Warren where icing is already beginning. This is a slight increase in expected icing amounts from earlier forecasts with the expected increase primarily due to a good deal of continued precipitation which is moving in from the west. Freezing rain is expected to continue until ending between 7-10 pm. A switch over or a mix with sleet and possibly snow is possible after 7 pm with minor sleet/snow accumulations possible. After 10 pm most precipitation should have come to an end in Warren County though freezing drizzle could continue through the early morning hours. Temperatures will drop into the upper 20s around 7 pm and temperatures will dip to around 20 by morning. Thus certainly icy roads are likely in some locations this evening through tomorrow morning.

Summary:

Timing: Now - 10 pm (Freezing Drizzle through the early morning hours)

Hazard: Freezing rain, possibly mixing with or changing to sleet/snow after 7 pm.

Amounts: Ice- 0.10-0.20 (up to 0.25 in NW Warren, lowest amounts in SE Warren); Snow/sleet- less than 1"

Impacts: Icing on elevated surfaces, though accumulations should cause little in the way of impacts (ie no tree limbs/power line problems). Icy areas are expected to develop this evening and overnight on roadways, especially as temperatures drop into the 20s. Traveling north and west will result in icy roadways even at this hour.

For quickly updating information stay informed by "liking" us, Warren County Wx on Facebook or "following" us @WarrenCountyWx on Twitter.

More ice is expected to have impacts Saturday night/Sunday morning... and update concerning such will be sent on Saturday.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

Heavy Rain followed by Freezing Rain

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Warren County by the NWS in Louisville for possible ice accumulations Friday afternoon/evening. The watch is in effect from midnight tonight until midnight Friday night. This watch will likely be updated to a warning or more likely some sort of winter weather or freezing rain advisory sometime this evening.

Current watches and warnings as of 3:30 pm Central. Pink counties to the west indicate Winter Storm Warnings where accumulations could be significant. Warren County and Bowling Green are under a Winter Storm Watch.

Discussion: A large winter storm system is currently intensifying across the southern plains which will push east in the next 24-36 hours providing a large amount of precipitation in various precipitation types across south-central Kentucky. First, rain which could be heavy at times will fall in this afternoon, overnight, and into tomorrow morning. An additional 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rainfall on top of the 0.64 inches of rain which fell this morning in Bowling Green is possible. Some minor flooding is possible by morning in areas that are flood prone. Meanwhile, temperatures will be chilly throughout the rain event. Temperatures in Bowling Green are currently in the mid 40s and dropping. Temperatures are expected to fall into the upper to mid 30s by this evening and remain steady in the mid 30s until early Friday afternoon. Thus there is little to no concern for freezing precipitation in Warren County overnight Thursday despite the cooling temperatures. However, by tomorrow midday temperatures could be at or near freezing across northwestern Warren County at which point freezing rain becomes a concern. Near Bowling Green, temperatures should remain above freezing through at least 3 pm and thus precipitation will remain rain until that time. It is between 3 pm and 6 pm when temperatures are expected to fall below freezing. With rain still expected to be falling, rain will freeze on contact thus creating ice accumulations. There remains some weather forecasting data discrepancy in how much precipitation will linger in Warren County/Bowling Green in the form of freezing rain. At this time, the data seems to be tending to allow precipitation to exit faster than at one time expected. If this is indeed the case, lesser ice accretions can be expected. Based on this data, current thinking is that up to a 10th of an inch can be expected in Bowling Green and points south and west. Areas across northwestern Warren County (near Hadley) can expect between a 0.10-0.25 inches of ice because temperatures will fall more quickly in these locations. Freezing rain is expected to end between 7 pm and 9 pm though light freezing drizzle is possible through midnight Friday night. Little to no sleet or snow is expected in Warren County. Below is a timeline of expected precipitation type and amounts.

Note that temperatures will struggle to warm on Saturday beneath mostly cloudy skies. Highs Saturday will only be around 34. By Saturday night, temperatures drop below freezing and precipitation again moves in. Freezing rain will likely fall with accumulating ice expected. More updates on this 2nd round of ice will be forthcoming.

Outline of potential ice timeframe and accumulations for Warren County. The pink line denotes the separation between the times and amounts.

Now-Noon Friday: Rain which could be heavy at times. 0.50-1.25 inches of additional rainfall is expected. Some minor flooding is possible in flood prone areas. Temperatures will fall from the mid 40s to the mid 30s. Temperatures will hover in the mid 30s for most of this time frame.

Noon Friday-3 pm: Temperatures will be at or near freezing near in the northwestern part of Warren County and thus a change to freezing rain is possible during this time frame. Bowling Green will remain in the mid 30s through at least 3 pm thus precipitation is expected to remain rain. Up to a 0.10 of ice in the northwest Warren County with 0.10-0.25" of additional rain in the remaining part of the county.

3 pm - 9 pm: Temperatures will fall to or below freezing in Bowling Green and much of Warren County by between 3 pm and 6 pm and thus rain will become freezing rain. Ice accumulations county wide will be up to an additional 0.10" with areas further north and west favored for ice accumulations.

9 pm - Midnight Friday Night: Temperatures will fall into the upper 20s and precipitation will tapper off. Freezing drizzle is a concern and roads could be hazardous by this time.

After Midnight: Precipitation should end though skies will remain cloudy into Saturday morning and temperatures will drop to the low 20s.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies with a high near 34.

Saturday Night: Lows in the mid 20s with a 70% chance of sleet and freezing rain.

Sunday: 70% chance of freezing rain early becoming rain during the day as temperatures moderate into the upper 30s.

Sunday Night: 30% chance of precipitation early. Otherwise cloudy and cold with temperatures dipping into 20s.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

Quiet Weather on Tap for Thanksgiving Weekend!

Discussion:

BRR!! It has been a chilly start to Thanksgiving today. With an area of high pressure over our area, the temperature fell to just 15 degrees overnight at the Bowling Green airport. The current temperature at the airport has now warmed up to 21 degrees (8:15) and light winds from the south today will help afternoon temperatures climb to near 40 degrees. High pressure will help our skies remain clear today and into overnight which will allow for another chilly night. Southerly winds will keep us a little warmer than last night, but temperatures will still fall into the lower 20's tonight.

Quiet weather remains on tap for southern Kentucky well into the weekend as a weak ridge positions itself over the southeastern United States. This ridge will allow for southerly winds to keep pumping warmer air into our area, and temperatures will gradually warm each day. Temperatures on Friday will top out in the mid to upper 40s, with clear skies again on tap. Friday night looks chilly as temperatures will dip into the middle 20s before temperatures finally surpass the 50 degree mark on Saturday afternoon. A very weak shortwave will move through the area Saturday, leaving behind a few more clouds than the previous days. Nevertheless, temperatures will reach the lower 50's on Saturday underneath partly cloudy skies. Increasing cloud cover should keep Saturday night's low in the middle 30s and by Sunday, another shortwave disturbance will produce mostly cloudy skies. The high temperature will be right around 50 degrees Sunday, and this shortwave disturbance will have a little bit more moisture to work with and could produce some light rain late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening. Enjoy the quiet weather this Thanksgiving weekend!

Days at a Glance:
Thanksgiving Night: Low - 21 Winds - S 5 mph becoming calm overnight.
Precipitation - 0%  Skies - Clear.

Friday: High - 47 Low - 25 Winds - Light & variable.
Precipitation - 0% Skies - Clear

Saturday: High - 53 Low - 35 Winds - S 5 to 10 mph.
Precipitation - 10% Skies - Partly Cloudy.

Sunday: High - 50  Low - 37 Winds - S 3 to 7 mph.
Precipitation - 20% of light rain late Sunday afternoon or evening. Skies - Mostly cloudy.

Forecaster: Zack Leasor

Wintry Precipitation to Usher in Cold Weather for Thanksgiving!

Discussion:

Temperatures are on the chilly side today, with a current temperature at the Bowling Green airport of 44 degrees. (2:00 P.M.) Aloft, an upper level trough currently positioned over New Mexico and western Texas continues to work its way eastward. Ahead of the trough, light winds from the southwest have ushered in slightly warmer temperatures than yesterday. However, we still remain in a moderately dry air mass with a current dew point of 13 degrees. (2:00 P.M.) At the surface, a weak area of low pressure is currently moving eastward across the Florida panhandle. As this moves east, there will be some phasing as the energy from the southern low will be transferred northward to another area of low pressure moving across the northeast headed toward the Atlantic Ocean. These areas of low pressure will serve as our main trigger for precipitation now through Tuesday night. With cold temperatures, wintry weather can be expected with this storm system! Current radar shows an area of rain and snow to our south and southwest that will slowly work into our area by this evening. Precipitation will be light, but a mixed bag of precipitation is in store for Warren county this evening, as we will most likely see a combination of rain, snow, and sleet. Low temperatures this evening will be right around the freezing mark. This combined with fairly warm ground temperatures will prevent any of the wintry precipitation from accumulating. There could be a quick coating to a half inch of snow on grassy surfaces overnight, but roads should remain just wet. Regardless, take caution driving in the morning, as there could be a few slick spots around town.

National Weather Service doppler radar at 2:26 P.M. CST showing area of light rain and snow making its way towards our area.

Tomorrow, snow and sleet will give way to plain rain by mid morning. Light rain will continue on Tuesday with temperatures rising to around 40 degrees by the afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be around a tenth of an inch during the daytime tomorrow. As the day progresses, a cold front will progress westward closer to our area allowing for temperatures to tumble Tuesday night. This will allow precipitation to briefly change back over to some show showers before precipitation completely ends before midnight Tuesday night. No snow accumulations are expected Tuesday night, but there could be a few slick spots develop on the roads as temperatures plummet behind the cold front. Wednesday looks to be chilly as an area of high pressure over eastern Kentucky and winds from the northwest should keep the daytime high temperature right around freezing. A few isolated snow showers cannot be ruled out Wednesday afternoon, as the northwest winds could pull some moisture from the Great Lakes down into Kentucky. With clear skies, Wednesday night will be cold with low temperatures dropping into the upper teens by daybreak on Thanksgiving. The area of high pressure will keep us dry on Thanksgiving, but high temperatures will only be in the upper 30s. So be sure to bundle up if you plan on traveling during Thanksgiving!

Days at a Glance:

Monday Night: Low - 32 Winds - SW winds around 5 mph becoming calm overnight.
Precipitation - 70% chance of a wintry mix of snow, sleet and rain. A coating up to a half inch of snow is possible on grassy surfaces by morning. Skies - Cloudy.

Tuesday: High - 40 Low - 25 Winds - N wind of 5 mph increasing to near 10 mph by the afternoon.
Precipitation - 80% chance of rain and snow on Tuesday. Snow showers in the morning will give way to rain throughout the day. A brief period of snow showers is possible as the precipitation ends by midnight Tuesday night. Rainfall around a tenth of an inch No snow accumulations are expected. Skies - Cloudy becoming clear overnight.

Wednesday: High - 32 Low - 17 Winds - NW 10 to 15 mph.
Precipitation - 10% of an isolated snow shower during the afternoon. Skies - Mostly clear.

Thanksgiving: High - 38 Low - 24 Winds - Light and variable.
Precipitation - 10% Skies - Mostly clear.

Forecaster: Zack Leasor

Winter Knocking on Door....Again

Days at a Glance:
Thursday: Another mild day starting around 40 degrees and reaching the upper 60's with S-SE winds blowing 8-12 mph. Clouds will be increasing throughout the day with 30% rain showers beginning late around Midnight.

Friday: Very warm start to the day in the low 50's. Temperatures will only rise to the mid 50's under cloudy skies with 90% chance of light to moderate rain showers from Midnight throughout the remainder of the day. Accumulations will range between 1 - 1.50 inches. Winds will shift from the SE to the NW at 8-12 mph Friday evening as cold air begins to spill in the area.

Saturday: Start with a low in the upper 30's with a high in the lower 40's as very cold air rushes into the area all day with 12 - 15 mph NW winds. Wind chill will make it feel colder than it is! Precipitation lingering from Friday should dissipate overnight as clouds will dissipate throughout the day.

Sunday: Very cold start to the day in the lower 20's. High's will be lucky to break the freezing mark reaching the mid 30's at best under sunny skies and 5 mph N winds turning light and variable into the evening.

Discussion:

As was hinted at in the previous forecast, Old Man Winter will make his way back down to our area this weekend with Sunday's high temperature barely reaching the mid-30's. With that said, savor tomorrow's mild temperatures in the upper 60's as clouds increase into the afternoon and evening. This is preceding a cold front that will pass through the area during the day Friday. Light to moderate rain showers are only expected and will persist throughout the entire day from Midnight to Midnight before tapering off into Saturday morning. Total accumulations should remain below 1.5 inches with no other hazards expected. Cold, Arctic air will spill into the region (cold air advection) all day Saturday as skies clear throughout the day.

GFS 12Z (6am) Sunday morning surface temperatures and wind barbs showing the very cold air settling into our area after persistent cold air advection (CAA) all day Saturday.

As a result, Sunday will be very cold with morning temperatures in the low 20's reaching the mid 30's in the afternoon under sunny skies. Dust off the winter jackets again and get the hot chocolate ready.

Forecaster: Austin Boys

Quiet Weather to Start the Work Week

Days at a Glance:
Monday: Starting in the mid 40's and rising to the mid 50's under blue skies. Gusty NW winds averaging 12-17mph will make it feel on the colder side than temperatures suggest.

Tuesday: A calm and clear night will produce a morning low at or just below the freezing mark with highs barely scraping 50 under blue skies. Winds will be light and variable.

Wednesday: Another calm and clear night produces lows at or just below freezing. Highs will reach the low to mid 50's under blue skies with 6-10 mph winds out of the S-SE.

Discussion:
After a very dramatic severe weather day across the Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes region especially (Figure below), we will settle back down into a quiet weather pattern.


Initial SPC severe weather reports for today as of 8:55pm CST tonight. An overall devastating event for the Midwestern US. As of yet, Warren County had 0 reports recorded.

A high pressure system is currently shifting over our area from the west and will park it for the remainder of the forecast period. This will produce beautiful and pleasant fall-like days.

Models are depicting another blast of Arctic air near the end of the work week and into the weekend behind a relatively weak front. More on this development with Wednesday's forecast.

Forecaster: Austin Boys

Severe Weather Update

Good morning all.

As the data has rolled in, I am becoming increasingly more confident on what we all can expect in the Bowling Green area. As the squall line forms to our west around 1:00 PM today it will be moving with substantial speed the east.

NAM model simulated reflectivity showing strong line of storms moving through around 6:00 PM this evening.

The timing for this storm's impact will be between 6:00 PM and 8:00 PM. Strong to severe winds and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Again please take any needed precautions today.

Forecaster: Brian Urbancic

Severe Weather Breakdown

Good evening folks. Here is a breakdown on what we can expect for our severe weather chances for tomorrow.

Current thinking suggest showers beginning to form in the early morning hours of Sunday. Energy will be limited with these showers, but gusty winds can not be ruled out. Winds tomorrow will gust from 40-50 mph. The main line of storms looks to be passing through the Bowling Green area between the hours of 6:00 PM and 8:00 PM.  This is when the best chance of severe weather will take place.

WRF Simulated precipitation model for tomorrow evening. Squall line looks to be making its way through the Bowling Green area between 6:00 PM - 8:00 PM.

Main impacts for this event include small hail, damaging winds and a small chance for isolated tornadoes. Be aware and take needed precautions.


Forecaster: Brian Urbancic

Temperatures on the Climb!

Current temperatures in Bowling Green at the Mesonet site is 28 degrees. Temperatures will be on the climb tomorrow but starting out cold at a brisk 25 degrees. Sunshine tomorrow will bounce our temperatures up into the mid 50s! This warming trend will continue into the weekend where temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s. We could even see 70 degrees on Sunday. With these unseasonably warm temperatures, our storm chances will pick up. Timing and intensity are still questionable, but as of tonight look for a storm chance on Sunday.

NAM model run for early Sunday. Low pressure developing to our northwest raising our storm chances with an oncoming front. 

Thursday: Clear skies throughout the day with a high temperature of 56 and a low of 24 in the early morning hours. Winds becoming southwest with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Friday: Clear skies in the morning to mid afternoon then increasing clouds in the evening. High temperature of 58 with a low of 45.

Saturday: Variable cloud coverage throughout the day. High temperature of 67 and a low of 55.

Sunday: Increasing storm chance throughout the day. High temperature of 69 with a low of 53.

Stay up to date with the storm chances this weekend on the STN blog!


Forecaster: Brian Urbancic

Colder Temperatures in the Forecast

Current temperatures in Bowling Green are in the upper 50s closing in on 60 before the cold frontal passage for tonight. Our low temperature for this morning's commute was a brisk 29 degrees because of our clear skies last night. Skies currently in Bowling Green are overcast keeping temperatures on the warmer side for now. The cold front intruding our way will be knocking on our door in the early morning hours of Tuesday. With this front comes precipitation, some of which may be frozen.

As the front passes Bowling Green tomorrow morning, look for temperatures to plummet into the low 30s. This may be cold enough for some snow to develop, but no accumulations are expected. Rain will most likely form ahead, changing to light snow with the front tomorrow morning.

This figure shows the HRRR model for early tomorrow morning. Current thoughts are temperatures will be above freezing with very light snow showers between 5:00AM and 9:00AM.

 Again no impacts are expected with this system. Fast forward into later in the week and we see cooler temperatures dominating Wednesday with highs only in the low 40s. Winds will turn southerly on Thursday warming our temperatures back up into the 50s.

NAM model map for surface temperatures for early morning Wednesday. Notice the cold air dominating Kentucky and holding strong.

Monday Night: Showers beginning to develop late tonight. Winds becoming more northerly 12-15mph. Low temperature of 33.

Tuesday: High temperature of 39 with a low of 24. Sustained winds at 10-15mph with gusts near 35mph. Rain turning to snow showers tomorrow morning with no accumulation expected, then clear skies going into the night.

Wednesday: High temperature of 45 degrees with a low of 24 with clear skies. Winds turning southerly in the night.

Thursday: High temperature of 50 with a low of 35. Warming trend continuing into the weekend with southerly winds.

Forecaster: Brian Urbancic  

Cool start to the weekend!

Current temperature as of 9:00 P.M. CDT is 38 degrees under clear skies with winds W at 2 mph.  The official low at the airport this morning was 41.  An upper level low is currently located over Canada with a ridge axis stretching from New Mexico up to Montana that will be moving into our area.  Dry cold air from the north is advecting into our area which explains the clear skies over the area.  At the surface, high pressure is centered over Texas that will push into our area into tomorrow.  High pressure will move into our area tomorrow and will be in control throughout the rest of the weekend, which means it will be a great weekend to get a jump start on your Holiday Shopping.  Expect a high temperature tomorrow of 58 degrees under mostly sunny skies with a low temperature of 32 degrees.

Temperature map valid for 9:00 P.M. CDT on November 7, 2013.

Thursday Evening:  Low temperature of 34 under mostly clear skies with winds out of the west at 5 mph.  No precipitation expected.

Friday: Low temperature of 32 and a high temperature of 58 degrees with mostly sunny skies and winds out of the north at 5 mph.  No precipitation expected.  

Saturday:  Low temperature of 35 and a high temperature of 62 degrees under mostly sunny skies with winds out of the south at 5 mph.  No precipitation expected. 

Sunday:  Low temperature of 39 and a high temperature of 59 degrees under mostly sunny skies with winds out of the southwest at 5 mph.  No precipitation expected.

Forecaster:  Tyler Binkley                 

Warmer start to the week! Rain Wednesday?

Currently the temperature is 61 with winds SSW at 9 mph.  Our official low this morning was 36 degrees.  An analysis of the upper part of the atmosphere shows a ridging pattern over our area.  Winds are out of the southwest which is causing warm air advection over our area.  At the surface, high pressure is in control, however a cold front is off to our west that is moving to the NE.  We are feeling the effects in the way of cloud cover.  Since the winds are out to the south, it will allow our temperature to warm up to 64 degrees today.  Moving into Tuesday, high pressure that is over our area will begin to move out of our area, and the cold front off to our west will move off to the northeast.  An area of low pressure will form over the plains, and will move off to the NE forming a cold front that will move toward our area by Wednesday.  Winds will remain southerly on Wednesday increasing our temperatures, and the current timing of the cold front moving through is late Wednesday night.  As it currently stands, it appears that the cold front will move through as rain.  No severe weather is expected at this time.

Visible Satellite valid for 12:30 P.M. CDT on November 4, 2013.

Days at a glance

Monday afternoon:  High temperature will be 64 under partly cloudy skies with winds out of the SSW at 9 mph.  The low tonight will be 44.  No precipitation expected.

Tuesday:  Morning low will be 42 and the high temperature will be 63 under partly cloudy skies with winds out of the south at 6 mph.  No precipitation expected.   

Wednesday:  Morning low will be 47 and the high temperature will be 71 under partly to mostly cloudy skies.  A cold front will push through late Wednesday night bringing rain.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. 

Forecaster:  Tyler Binkley

 

Returning Back to Normal

Days at a Glance:

Friday: High: 67 Low: 44 Skies will start partly cloudy and then clear up by the end of the day.  Winds will be coming out of the west between 6-14 mph with gusts up to 22 mph.

Saturday: High: 57 Low: 35 Clouds will roll back in for the day as a weak cold front swings down from the north.  Winds will be coming out of the NW between 6-16 mph.

Sunday: High: 55 Low: 38 Sunny skies with winds coming out of the NE around 4 mph.

Current temperature lines for 00z on November 1st.

Discussion: Now that the cold front responsible for the severe weather threat on Halloween has passed, we can expect nothing but cooler temperatures and clearer skies.  We will experience the typical fall weather known to Bowling Green, KY.  Another cold front will be coming out of the North on Saturday, bringing with it another small chance of rain.  Once that passes, we can expect clear skies for the rest of the weekend.

Halloween Briefing and a Look at What is to Come

As of 5:00 pm, we have decided to bring back in our spotters that we sent out to check on the severe weather threat for Bowling Green.  The spotters took anemometers out into the field to measure the wind so that they could report any wind gusts that qualify for severe winds.  The first photo is from Hadley Fire Department looking to the SSE.  The second photo is of Lead Spotter Ryan Difani and spotter Jordan Bailey as they try to measure the wind with the anemometers.

Now for a quick briefing about why the severe weather did not happen when it was forecasted.  The original forecast called for severe weather to be over our area around 3:00 pm, but as we all know, that did not happen.  The reason for that was that the severe weather we anticipated with the first line of showers that came through during the predicted time completely diminished.  It diminished due to the fact that there was no energy available due to the cloud cover and lack of instability.

Do not let your guard down though.  The main threat for severe weather is still on its way with the cold front that is expected to reach our area between 8:00 pm to 10:00 pm.  We still have a threat for strong to severe winds and a very slight chance of an isolated tornado on the leading edge of the cold front.  

Halloween Severe Weather Threat

Stormtopper Network has officially been upgraded to an Alert status.  This is all due to the severe weather threat for tomorrow (10/31) afternoon and evening.  The Storm Prediction Center has put Bowling Green, KY and surrounding areas in a 30% chance of having severe weather tomorrow. 

From the latest model runs, we are anticipating these storms to be firing up after 3:00 pm and to continue till about midnight.  Due to the fact that these storms have the capability to continue to the late evening hours, we strongly advise you to have a NOAA weather radio nearby in the case of late evening warnings.  Since tomorrow is Halloween, it is highly advised to reconsider any outdoor activities as these storms have the chance of producing severe winds as well as a possible isolated tornado.  Even if no severe weather materializes, these storms will produce heavy rain.  The National Weather Service, Warren County Emergency Management, and Stormtopper Network strongly advises anyone and everyone to tune in/be listening to their local news stations as well as the National Weather Service offices in Nashville, Paducah, or Louisville for any watches/warnings.

Welcome Back to Fall...

Daily Forecasts:

Monday: High: 66 Low: 50  Skies will remain mostly cloudy throughout the day with a slight chance of some showers up till 1pm or so.  Winds will be relatively calm.  Chance of rain will be only 20%.

Tuesday: High: 70 Low: 58 Skies will continue to remain mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower in the morning changing to a higher chance of a shower or thunderstorm after 1:00 pm or so.  Winds will change from a calm wind in the morning to around a south wind between 5-8 mph. Chance of rain increases to 40% as you go throughout the day on Tuesday.  We can expect less than an inch of rain to fall.

Wednesday: High: 74 Low: 60 Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with the sun poking through every once in a while with a small chance of a shower throughout the day.  Winds will speed up to about 10 mph during the day and slow down to about 6 mph during the evening and overnight hours.  Chance of rain will be 20%.

Thursday (Halloween Night): High: 70 Low: 54 Skies will be cloudy throughout the day with higher chances of showers and thunderstorms than they were on Tuesday.  Winds will pick up to a south wind between 10-14 mph.  Chance of rain will be 60%.  We can expect more rain than on Tuesday.

Precipitable Water, aka most likely where rain is falling, for Thursday around 1:00 pm

Discussion:

Now that we have officially thawed out from the winter tease we had at the end of last week, we can now officially say hi to the typical Bowling Green fall weather.  Monday and Wednesday will be good days for any outdoor activity, except sunbathing, as we are going to have pleasant conditions with a chance of a stray shower or two.  We can expect a higher chance of seeing rain on Tuesday as a shortwave passes by bringing with it warmer temperatures and a chance for more showers and thunderstorms.  The main event of the week though will not happen until Thursday, which ironically is Halloween night.  It is still too early to tell whether or not this system will still have enough strength to produce severe weather in our area, but we can still expect that we will have a soggy and windy Halloween, so be sure that all of your outdoor decorations are securely fixed to the ground or risk them being blown away.  This system will be monitored as the week goes on and updates will be issued if necessary. 

Forecaster: Will Paschall

End of the Week Get Off to a Cold Start... First Freeze of the Season!

Daily Forecasts:

Friday: A cold start after a morning low near 25. Skies will be sunny but it will be a cool day with a high near 49. Light northwest winds up to 8 mph.

Friday Night: Cold, clear with nearly calm winds and a low around 27.

Saturday: Sunny to start the day with increasing clouds though the afternoon becoming mostly cloudy by evening. Warmer with a high near 62. Southwest winds from 5-15 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly to partly cloudy skies with some clearing by morning. Low around 39. West winds up to 8 mph.

Sunday: Sunshine with a high near 60. West to northwest winds from 5-10 mph.

Sunday Night: Clear skies with clouds increasing by morning however. Low near 39.

Monday: Partly cloudy skies and becoming warmer with a high in the mid to upper 60s.

Forecast Discussion:

Somebody turn up the heat because its cold outside! The coldest air so far this season has arrived to south-central Kentucky after three pushes of cold air have moved in this past week. The cold air along with a weak disturbance moving over the Ohio Valley allowed some locations across northern Kentucky to see some sleet and snow Thursday morning. There will be no snow here in south-central Kentucky but the ground may be solid white by Friday morning. With an upper-level trough and a surface high pressure in place, creating a couple of calm clear nights, you can bet that the temperature is going to drop. A Freeze Warning has been posted for the entire state of Kentucky for Thursday night as temperatures plummet to the mid 20s. Be sure to grab the jacket or maybe even the coat before heading out the door Friday morning.

A surface high pressure system will create calm winds and clear skies allowing for a cold night with temperatures dropping to the mid 20s. RUC forecast temperatures for 7 am Friday morning.

Temperatures will not warm much Friday despite sunny skies; the high will be around 50. Temperatures will again drop into the upper 20s Friday night/Saturday morning under clear skies. By Saturday winds will switch from the southwest ahead of a very weak disturbance. The southwest winds and sunny skies will allow temperatures to moderate into the low 60s. The weak disturbance will bring a few clouds to the sky by Saturday evening but they should clear by Sunday morning and thus a sunny Sunday with a high near 60 is expected. This is the result of another surface high pressure system moving in behind the weak disturbance.

Looking longer range and into early next week, a warm front should start the week off right allow temperatures to warm to the mid to upper 60s by Monday. Data suggests that 70s will return by Tuesday. The next major storm system is expected around during the midweek time frame.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

Nice Monday... Temperatures Cooling Thereafter

Daily Forecasts:

Monday: Mostly sunny to start the day though clouds will increase after 3 pm, becoming cloudy by 7 pm. Highs will warm to near 68. Southwesterly winds at 5-12 mph.

Monday Night: Cloudy skies with a 60% chance of showers primarily after midnight. Showers will remain light with rainfall totals less than 0.10”. Low around 44. Light winds from the northwest.

Tuesday: Clouds will clear early becoming mostly sunny during midday. High near 61. Clouds will again increase by the evening. 5-12 mph winds turning back from the southwest.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy skies with a low near 39 with westerly winds at 4-10 mph.

Wednesday: Clouds will clear early for a mostly sunny day but cool with a high only around 52. Northwesterly winds from 5-10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Low near 37 with increasing clouds.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy to start the day with skies becoming mostly sunny by the afternoon. High in the low to mid 50s.

Forecast Discussion:

After a rainy start to the weekend on Saturday morning, weather conditions certainly cleared up for a gorgeous Sunday. The day got off to the chilliest start of the fall season thus far though. The low was 34 at the BGWC Regional Airport while the low dropped to the freezing mark at the Warren County mesonet site just outside of BG. The wall-to-wall sunshine helped to warm us into the low 60s by this afternoon, however that is several degrees below our average high for the date of 70. With such cool temperatures there were some areas of frost along with areas of fog to start Sunday.

Our cool weather is thanks to a cold front which passed through Saturday and also an upper-level trough located over the upper-Midwest which has setup a fairly zonal flow over the Ohio Valley. Associated with this trough is the next weather system poised to impact Kentucky. There is an associated low pressure system which is currently over the Great Lakes and a cold front extends from the system through Illinois and into Texas. Ahead of the system southerly winds and mostly sunny skies will allow for temperatures to rise into the upper 60s. It should be a phenomenal fall Monday but clouds will begin to increase into the afternoon hours, with cloudy skies likely by sunset thanks to the approaching system. The low pressure system itself will pass well to our north but the cold front will slide through the Commonwealth on Monday night. The frontal passage marks the first of several weak fronts to pass through this week which will usher in much cooler air. There is a slight chance of a few showers with the front, though any showers will likely be in the early morning hours Tuesday morning and thus go unnoticed by most. Rainfall will very light totaling no more than a tenth of an inch.

This NAM model forecast indicates light rain along the cold front valid for 4 am on Tuesday. Behind the front cooler air will move in, and after another system moves by on Tuesday night, more cool air will spill in for mid-week.

 

 

 Clouds will move out temporarily on the day Tuesday though yet another weaker system will approach by Tuesday evening bringing with it more cloudiness. Due to the very dry air which will already be in place, showers are unlikely with this system. However cool air will come crashing in. By Wednesday, mostly sunny skies will dominate but temperatures will struggle to climb. After starting out Wednesday morning near 40 highs will only reach the low 50s. Yet another weak disturbance will move toward the Ohio Valley by Wednesday night/Thursday morning and depending on its exact timing (which the models currently disagree on) will determine just how chilly it is to start Thursday. Either way it will likely be in the 30s. This very weak disturbance will again bring in more cool air in for the end of the week and it looks quite likely that our first real freeze of the season will occur Friday morning as temperatures are expected to drop to near 30. Cool below average temperatures are expected to continue right into next week as you can see predicted by the Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day temperature outlook. They are giving at least a 70% chance of below average temperatures through next Wednesday.

 

At least a 70% probability of below average temperatures is predicted by the Climate Prediction Center for this weekend into early next week. Thus cool temperatures are here to stay for a while.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani