Accumulating snow Mid-Week?

Current Conditions:
Mostly sunny conditions today allowed for the temperature to reach a high of 52 across the county with the low this morning being 26. Currently an upper level low is located over northern New Mexico with a ridging pattern over our area. Associated with the upper level low is moisture which is causing blizzard conditions across Oklahoma and Kansas. At the surface, low pressure is located over western Texas with a stationary front stretching from the Texas panhandle over into Missouri. High pressure is located over southeastern Ohio and West Virginia which is the reason for our mostly sunny conditions today. The temperature as of 8:30 P.M. is 37 with winds out of the Northeast at 3 mph.

Surface map valid for 7:20 P.M. on February 24, 2013.

Forecast:
The winds overnight will be coming out of the east and getting wrapped around the low pressure over Texas. Temperatures overnight will get down to 33 by midnight and in the morning the temperature will start out at 32 and the high will be 56. The upper level low out west will progress to the east becoming closed. The moisture with this low will increase at the 700mb level as it moves toward our area by 3:00 A.M. Tuesday. The timing of rain as of right now is 2:00 P.M. tomorrow afternoon as the low moves up toward Illinois. Moderate to heavy rain will move through the area Monday night into Tuesday.  The snow chance at this time looks very slim. There will be moisture that will wrap around Tuesday night and Wednesday and since temperatures will be at or below freezing, snow is possible. Travel problems are not anticipated at this time.  The rain totals out of this system in the end will be 0.50" or more.

NAM 6hr Accumulated Precipitation valid for 3:00 A.M. Tuesday, February 26, 2013.

Tuesday:  High- 50  Low- 37  Rain throughout the day ending later that night.  Chance of precipitation is 80% with winds out of the south at 17 mph  with a few snow flakes Tuesday night.

Wednesday: High- 42  Low- 35   Winds out of the southwest with gusts up to 17 mph.   Slight chances of rain/snow later in the evening.  Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday:  High- 40  Low- 32  Winds out of the northeast at 14 mph.  Light rain/snow throughout the day.  Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Forecaster:  Tyler Binkley                    

From Ugly to Pretty

Forecast Overview

Friday: High: 60 Low: 32. Rain will be moving out of the area in the morning with winds slowing down to about 5-8 mph.  Clouds will gradually be decreasing over the course of the day giving us partly cloudy skies by mid-afternoon.

Saturday: High: 49 Low: 29.  We will have mostly sunny skies with winds coming out of the west picking up to about 8 mph.

Sunday: High 55 Low: 37.  We will have sunny skies with winds coming out of the west at 5-8 mph.

Forecast Discussion

Over the course of the weekend, a weak ridge will be over the Mid-South making our weather calm and clear for the next few days.  Since this is a weak ridge, cold temperatures will be moving into our area overnight, but then move out during the day.  The ridge will move out of the area over the course of the day Sunday, making way for a closed low pressure to move in overnight Sunday into Monday.

NAM Surface temperatures valid for 00Z on Saturday.  As the ridge passes through, the highs will be in the mid to upper 50s on Friday and Sunday with Saturday being a cold day with the high reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Forecaster: Will Paschall

From Winter to Spring with rain...

Forecast Overview:

Tuesday: High 44, Low 24.  Rain will be ending over night making way for partly cloudy skies.  Breezy conditions will still continue as winds shift from SW to W with speeds up to 18 mph.

Wednesday: High 39, Low 25. Clouds clearing to allow for mostly sunny skies.  Winds shift to the NNW with speeds around 9 mph.

Thursday: High 48, Low 42.  Slightly warmer temperatures coming to Warren County bringing with it another chance of showers.  Winds shifting to the W with speeds around 12 mph.  Chance of rain 50%.

Friday: High 58, Low 41.  Warming trend continues.  Clouds will remain making it a mostly cloudy day.  Winds shifting to the SW with speeds around 7 mph.

Forecast Discussion

As a negatively tilted trough pushed through our area Monday evening bringing the storms we saw overnight Monday into early Tuesday.  With a substantial ridge following this trough, the skies will be clearing up allowing us to have partly cloudy skies change to mostly sunny skies, winds progressively calming down,  and, unfortunately, colder temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.  Our next chance of rain is on Thursday. A closed low will develop over the Rockies and move across the Great Plains drawing in a lot of moisture from the Pacific Ocean as strong upper level winds come out of the SW and eventually moves in to our neighborhood mid-afternoon/early evening on Thursday.  Following this closed low is a ridge that will give us warmer temperatures on Friday, but cloudy conditions will remain.

NAM valid for Friday 06z. Precipitation will be progressively moving east, and
be in our area between 6:00p.m. Thursday and 12:00a.m. Friday. 

Look here for an update Thursday at what the weekend looks like.

Forecaster: Will Paschall

Weekend Forecast: Cooler Temperatures with Mostly Sunny Skies!

Overview: Saturday brings a chance for snow showers mostly within eastern Kentucky. For Warren County, only the occasional flurry is expected with no accumulations expected. High pressure will build in through Sunday with skies clearing and sunshine. Temperatures will be chilly throughout the weekend after the passage of two fronts this week and current upper level trough bringing winds out of the west/northwest throughout the weekend but a slight warm up will happen Sunday as the winds shift west/southwest bringing in a slight warm up.

Saturday: High, 35. Low, 20. Light snow showers possible with the best chances in eastern Kentucky. Winds north/northwest at 5-10 mph. No accumulation expected.

Sunday: High, 42. Low, 35. Partly cloudy with a slight warm up from Saturday. No chance of precipitation. Winds shifting west/southwest at 5-10 mph.

Discussion:

A trough at the 250 mb level will bring north/northwest winds aloft advecting in colder temperatures from the north. At 500 mb, a vorticity maxima is moving over eastern Kentucky. These upper level features will allow for some snow showers to develop across eastern Kentucky Saturday. For Warren County, only the occasional batch of snow flurries can be expected with no accumulation expected. 

NAM 250 mb heights and winds valid 18z Saturday

High pressure will set in behind this trough Sunday with clearing skies and sunshine with a slight warm up as winds shift west/southwest. 

Forecaster: Emily Yates

Start of the Week Forecast and Chances of Snow!

Forecast Overview:

Tuesday: High 50, Low 32. Clear skies to begin the day with sunshine. Clouds increasing into afternoon with rain showers possible late Tuesday night. Light winds around 5 mph shifting to the north by Tuesday night.

Wednesday: High 45, Low 35. Rain showers in morning hours with a change wintry mix after noon. Snow/rain showers ending late Wednesday night. Winds from the north/northwest around 5-10 mph.

Thursday: High 54, Low 32. Drying out and return of sunshine. Clouds increasing as next system moves in from west. Winds shifting to the south.

Friday: High 48, Low 30. Next chance for snow. Mostly cloudy. Winds shifting to more westerly flow.

Forecast Discussion:

Tuesday will bring a chance again for some light snow in central Kentucky. An area of low pressure will move just to the south of central Kentucky placing us on the backside of the system. The event will start out with primarily rain. The moisture will wrap around the low and freeze causing a mixed batch of precipitation for us into Wednesday.

Nam forecast MSLP and precipitation for 18z (Noon) Wednesday

The latest output from the SPC shows less than 50% chance of accumulating snow > 1 inch for our area. Temperatures could drop just under freezing by Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. However, temperatures will warm well above freezing into the mid-40's by Wednesday afternoon with lows in the mid-30's. This will prevent any accumulation, however slight, from sticking around too long. A few roads may develop some slick spots into Wednesday afternoon/night.

The GFS and NAM models disagree with the GFS painting a swath of 1-2 inches accumulation across western Kentucky by lunchtime Wednesday. The NAM omits these totals leading to some disagreement among the models on accumulation. The GFS tends to be the wrong case still showing surface temperatures above freezing throughout most of the forecast period which wouldn't support accumulating snow. Thursday will bring another front through and a cool down in temperatures. Friday will bring another upper level disturbance/surface front moving through with more chances of snow showers. This will become more clear for what to expect later in the week. 

Forecaster: Emily Yates

Next Update: 2/13/12

Warm Up with Showers on the Way

Temperatures tomorrow morning will start out on the chilly side in the mid 30s but they will rebound tomorrow to a high of 63. Chance for scattered showers early tomorrow morning, but the better chance for showers will be Thursday night into early Friday morning as a line of showers begins to make its way into Bowling Green.

NAM Reflectivity valid for Friday at 0600 UTC which is early Friday morning. A line of showers beginning to make its way through the region. By late morning on Friday, they will be off to our east.

So how much can we expect? My current thinking is just under a quarter of an inch. The HPC seems to agree with this idea shown in the picture below. The map is valid for 0600 UTC to 1200 UTC on Friday, which is the expected time for this frontal passage.

HPC Precipitation forecast for 0600 UTC to 1200 UTC Friday, which is early Friday morning. This is the expected time for the cold front to pass.

After the cold front passes expect temperatures to fall. The high projected for Friday will struggle to get out of the 40s. Lows Friday night will be in the upper 20s with clear skies allowing for even greater cooling. Saturday looks pleasant as high pressure will bring us clear and moderate temperatures to Bowling Green. On Sunday, clouds will re-enter into the picture as another surface low works its way across the area. Rain chances will increase throughout the day and possibly a few thunderstorms as well.

Days at a Glance:

Thursday: High of 63 with a low of 36. Slight chance for a few scattered showers tomorrow morning.

Friday: High of 48 with a low of 28. Showers chances will increase Friday morning around 1:00 AM and diminish around 6:00 AM. Precipitation amounts look to be just under a quarter of an inch.

Saturday: High of 52 with a low in the mid 30s. High pressure dominating, with clear skies throughout the day.

Sunday: High of 59 with a low in the mid 30s again. Another round of showers will push through the day on Sunday. A few thunderstorms can also be expected.

 Forecaster: Brian Urbancic  

Shower Chances to Close the Week

Temperatures will be on the steady increase as the week continues. The jet stream will have a zonal flow through the middle of the week, which means pleasant weather for us. Expect tomorrow to be a cloudy day, with temperatures in the mid 30s for the morning commute, but temperatures will rise to 50 from there. By Wednesday, a storm system will just be towards our west. Temperatures will still be in the low 50s with clearing skies, with lows in the lower 30s. Thursday afternoon, a front will make its way through Bowling Green which will give us our next rain chance.

NAM Valid for Thursday at 2100z. Precipitation will just be to our west and scattered ahead of the frontal passage.

Rain will be scattered Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Temperatures will rise into the upper 50s before the cold front passes. Highs on Friday will be in the lower 50s with lows dipping into the 30s.

Days at a Glance:

Tuesday: High of 50 with a low of 33 in the morning. Overcast skies throughout the day.

Wednesday: High of 51 with a low at 32. Scattered clouds throughout the day.

Thursday: High of 57 with a low of 35. Scattered showers moving in during the mid afternoon. Precip: 40%

Friday: Chance of rain in the morning. High of 50 with a low of 34. Precip: 20%

Look for another update Wednesday night!

Forecaster: Brian Urbancic