April Enters the Bluegrass State Dry and Cool with a Beautiful Week Ahead!

Days at a Glance:
Monday: Partly cloudy. High 55 F, Low 30 F. Light winds at 5-8 knots (5-9 MPH). Precipitation - 10%:

Tuesday: Clouds will begin to clear and lead to partly sunny conditions. High 52 F, Low 28 F. Light winds 1-2 knots (1-2 MPH).  Precipitation  - 0%.

Wednesday: Sunny skies warming into the upper-50's for the high around 57 F. Low 37 F. Precipitation - 10%.

Discussion:
After passage of two cold frontal boundaries Sunday leaving behind cooler temperatures for Monday, surface high pressure will move in from the west and dominate the forecast period from Monday-Wednesday. Monday will start off cloudy with breaks occurring in cloud cover throughout the morning and afternoon allowing for sunshine to peek through. Temperatures will continue fairly close with this weekend's temperatures reaching highs in the mid-50's and lows reaching down into the 30's. Tuesday will be a bit cooler as clouds begin to clear out. Highs will be in the low-50's with lows in the upper 20's overnight with scarce cloud cover and more loss of daytime heating. Wednesday will bring a slight warm up with temperatures back into the mid-50's and Lows in the mid-30's. The next best chance for precipitation will come Thursday as a disturbance moves in from the west. An update of forecast amounts and timing will be provided in greater detail on Wednesday.

GFS Mean Sea Level Pressure, Surface Temperatures, and Precipitation valid Thursday 00 UTC (7 pm Wednesday CST).

Forecaster: Emily Yates

Rain for the Weekend

Days at a Glance
 Friday: High- 51 Low- 37 Winds- 5mph Precipitation- 70% Showers developing early in the morning and pushing through Friday mid-afternoon.

Saturday: High- 65 Low- 39 Winds- 5-7mph Precipitation- 0% Clouds moving out early Saturday morning.

Sunday: High- 66 Low- 50 Winds- 5-10mph Precipitation- 50% A line of showers will move through Bowling Green early Sunday morning with a warm front pushing through.

Discussion
Showers will be making their way through Bowling Green early this morning. By mid afternoon, they should be pushing off to our east. Skies look to stay cloudy all day preventing our temperatures to rise too much. Look for a high of 51 tomorrow. On Saturday skies look to be clear with temperatures surging into the mid 60s. By late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, a line of showers look to be moving in shown in the picture:

00Z NAM Reflectivity run valid of 0600Z on Sunday. A line of showers moving through associated with a warm front.

This line of showers is associated with a warm front. After the passage, winds will be southerly with temperatures getting above 65. Rain amounts could reach a quarter of an inch. 

Forecaster: Brian Urbancic

Severe Weather Preparedness Event

Hello everybody,

Come on out to Greenwood Mall this Saturday from 10 am to 4 pm,  near New York and Company, as we try to get the Bowling Green and surrounding areas ready for severe weather.  Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear has declared the entire month of March as being Severe Weather Awareness Month.  In coordination, we will be giving out severe weather awareness flyers that will help better prepare you and your family for when bad weather comes knocking at your door.  If you have a weather radio, but do not know how to set it up, go ahead and bring it and we will program it for you.  We will also be giving out coloring books for the kids.  Invite your friends and family to come stop by our table.  Lastly, will be that we will be giving away a NOAA Weather Radio to one lucky person!!!

Snow Tonight!

Days at a Glance

Monday: High- 38 Low- 32  Winds - 15-20 mph NW  Precip -80% Snow, expect a dusting to a half inch of accumulation through tomorrow night.

Tuesday: High - 43 Low - 29 Winds - 5-10 mph NW Precip - 30% Chance for a few lingering snow showers until 4:00 AM. No accumulation expected.

Wednesday: High - 46 Low - 26 Winds - 5-10 mph NW Precip - 0% Clearing skies early Wednesday.

Discussion
The temperature currently in Bowling Green is 35 with overcast skies. A total of 0.6 inches of precipitation fell with an impressive burst of hail this afternoon. Overcast skies will continue throughout the night tonight and throughout the next few days until Wednesday morning. Wrap around snow, associated with a low pressure, is likely tonight into tomorrow.

This map shows the composite reflectivity valid for 00 UTC showing steady precipitation throughout the night tonight and into tomorrow morning.

Accumulations look to be minimal with amounts between a dusting and a half inch. Tuesday looks to be another cloudy day with temperatures only getting to 43. A few lingering snow showers cannot be ruled out on Tuesday. Once the clouds break on Wednesday morning, temperatures will get into the mid to upper 40s.

Forecaster: Brian Urbancic

Rain to Close the Weekend

Days at a Glance:
Thursday:  High - 39  Low - 18  Winds - 5-7 mph NW  Precipitation - 0%  Skies - Clear

Friday:  High - 49  Low - 22  Winds - 5-6 mph E  Precipitation - 50% widespread rain showers into the evening and overnight hours  Skies - Clear becoming mostly cloudy and overcast by late afternoon

Saturday: High - 52  Low - 33  Winds - 6-8 mph ENE  Precipitation - 100% widespread rain showers in the early morning hours with more scattered, but heavier rain further into the evening and overnight

Sunday: High - 51  Low - 32  Winds - 6-8 mph E increasing to 20-23 mph SW mid afternoon slackening to 15-17 mph NW late evening Precipitation - 80% residual rain as the front moves through the area with total accumulations for both days under one inch

Discussion:
Currently, the temperature at the WKU Farm Mesonet is at 27 F. By tomorrow morning, temperatures will have bottomed out to the upper teens, so bundle up! Tomorrow will be another nice day with temperatures struggling to escape the 30's. Thursday night will be another cold one in the lower 20's. Friday will be another beautiful day with a high near 50, but clouds will be increasing throughout the day into the evening. Widespread, but light rain showers will be an increasing possibility into the overnight hours and Saturday morning before tapering off by mid-morning. Clouds will stick around throughout the day with increasing winds until another round of rain impacts the area into the evening and around midnight. This will be more scattered, but intense in nature because it is associated with a cold front compared to the warm front Saturday morning.

GFS 12Z (7 am) surface winds, temperature, and mean sea level pressure Sunday morning. Notice the low pressure system responsible for the weekend rain passing our area, and the cold, northwest winds behind it.

Models are not agreeing very well with total rainfall accumulations, but I'll keep the baseline at half of an inch with one inch as the limit for the weekend event. With the rain clearing out by mid Sunday morning, skies will clear out by late afternoon with temperatures falling throughout the day thanks to gusty NW winds.

Forecaster: Austin Boys

Soaking Rains

Days at a glance:
Monday: High - 67  Low - 46  Precipitation - 100% moderate to heavy rain ending completely by noon with peak intensities around 5-7 am.  Winds - 16-18 mph S switching and slackening to 5 mph WNW by midnight  Skies - Overcast clearing out into the evening

Tuesday: High - 54  Low - 31  Precipitation - 20% rain around midnight Wednesday morning (confidence: 30%)  Winds - 12-17 mph W  Skies - Clear becoming mostly cloudy to overcast into the evening and around midnight

Wednesday: High - 46  Low - 29  Precipitation - 20% rain around midnight Wednesday morning (confidence: 30%)  Winds - 17-21 mph W  Skies - Partly to mostly cloudy

Discussion:
The warm temperatures in the low 70's we experienced earlier this weekend will reappear shortly into tomorrow before colder temperatures return. A frontal boundary is currently stalled in an east-west orientation across our area. This is the stalled cold front from the beginning of the weekend. Precipitation has been mostly light, but persistent along this boundary today as southerly winds across the deep south bring moisture into the area. With temperatures currently at 42 F in Bowling Green, precipitation will stay in the form of rain as temperatures will remain in the 40's and warm through the night due to warm air advection preceding tomorrow's cold front. Rain will taper off overnight as an approaching low pressure system lifts the warm front to the north of our area. Temperatures will rebound nicely into the low to mid 60's tomorrow under cloudy skies before a cold front sweeps through the area around 3-5 pm. Precipitation associated with this front will come much sooner around early to mid-morning hours before moving out by noon with 5-7 am being the hours of peak intensity. Due to the timing in the early morning, lack of wind shear, and marginal instability, the threat for severe weather will be low with small hail and damaging winds as the primary threats. Widespread and persistent rain will be the main story. Overall, rain amounts could reach up to 1 inch in our area with .65 of an inch as the baseline by tomorrow afternoon.

NAM 9Z (4 am) 3/18 Composite Reflectivity. Notice the precipitation beginning to reach our area in association with the cold front.

Monday night, skies will clear allowing temperatures to fall at or below freezing. Tuesday will be a nice day with a high in the low 50's. The second feature of concern is a clipper system affecting our area around midnight Wednesday morning. Current sounding profiles for that time are not very promising for anything other than a few hundredths of an inch of rain. Since the temperature will be close to freezing and it is still a few days out, updates will be issued if conditions change.Wednesday will have a high in the mid 40's with partly cloudy skies.

Forecaster: Austin Boys

Warm Friday... The Rain & Storms Possible

Potential Severe Storms Monday... Update (11:22 am Friday)

The Storm Prediction Center has (since the writing of the forecast below) placed all of central Kentucky and Tennessee under an area with the risk of severe storms for Monday afternoon. As more data comes in we will continue to monitor and update you on the severe weather potential. For now at least be aware that Monday has the potential for severe storms. Stay tuned to our Facebook and Twitter pages as well as this blog for future updates.

An area of heightened severe storm potential has been outlined over the areas in red for Monday.

------------------------------------------------------
The first half of the week has been chilly with an occasional snow or rain shower.  Generally highs have been in the 40s to low 50s. A welcome sight to most however is on the way.... warmer weather! A trough has been in place across the Ohio Valley and much of the eastern United States most of this week and thus temperatures have been cool.  The trough will break down and be replaced by a zonal flow across the nation.  This along with the return flow around a high pressure system near the gulf coast will allow temperatures to warm.  It may be hard to believe since we currently sit in the 30s but we'll climb to a high in the low 70s tomorrow!  Saturday will also be warm with highs in the 60s, however a cold front will move in during the evening bringing temperatures down Saturday night and into Sunday.  This front will stall out over our area and will be a focal point for rain from Saturday evening though Monday.  The rain won't be continuous during this time but rather there will be waves of rainfall.  Rainfall isn't expected to be excessive despite the longevity.  Generally around an inch of rain is expected through Monday night though more may fall in localized areas as a result of a few thunderstorms.

WPC's forecast QPF or precipitation totals through Sunday afternoon. A clear east-to-west line of heavier precipitation can be seen from MO through KY thanks to the stalled front in the area.

By Monday the stalled front in the area will be pushing back to the north as a warm front just ahead of a low pressure system and cold front which will move through Monday afternoon. At this point in time it does look possible that there could be some storms and some severe storms cannot be ruled out. However confidence in the severity is low at this point as we are still several days out.

By Monday around 1 pm CDT the GFS is clearly showing a strong low pressure system over the upper-Midwest. Furthermore warm moist air is being brought in from southerly winds around this system creating an environment in which storms are possible across south-central KY.

Nevertheless at least be aware that storms are possible Monday and that further monitoring is necessary as to whether any of these storms will be severe. Stay tuned to this blog for any updates as well as our Facebook and Twitter pages.  By Tuesday the cold front will have moved through allowing conditions to clear and temperatures to cool down.

Daily Forecasts:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy by morning.  Temperatures will hold steady in the mid 30s and may warm to near 40 by morning. Light SE to S winds.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny with increasing clouds in the late afternoon.  Warm with a high near 72. Breezy with WSW winds from 8-15 mph.

Friday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a low near 56. 30% chance of a few showers. Southwest winds from 8-14 mph.

Saturday: Some peaks of sun early before becoming mostly cloudy to even overcast during the afternoon. 30% chance of a few showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon.  Winds from 8-15 mph and switching from the WSW to the NNW through the day.

Saturday Night: 70% chance of rain especially after midnight. Low near 45. 0.1-0.3 inches of rainfall possible. Northeast winds from 5-10 mph.

Sunday: 60% chance of scattered rainfall with 0.1-0.3 inches of rainfall possible. High in the upper 40s to near 50.  Northeast winds from 8-14 mph.

Monday: Low in the upper 40s with a high in the mid 60s. 60% of scattered showers in the morning with thunderstorms possible by the afternoon.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

Heavy Rain Tonight with Cooler Temps to Start the Week

Unseasonably warm temperatures have been welcomed to southern Kentucky this weekend.  Temperatures rose to the low 70s for the first time since late January.  Normally highs should be in the upper 50s for this time of year!  The warmth has been thanks to an upper-level ridge in place over the Ohio Valley.  This has placed a High pressure system to our southeast and a low pressure system and cold front off to our west.  Sitting between these pressure systems has placed southern Kentucky in the return flow area which means southerly winds have been bringing in warm and moist air.  Those southerly winds have been strong at times with gusts in excess of 35 mph!

The aforementioned low pressure system and cold front which is now located from Missouri to Texas is pushing east and will be bringing with it heavy rainfall which will start this evening.  A few scattered showers or sprinkles are possible before midnight but most of the heavy rainfall will move in around midnight and continue through midday tomorrow.  The rainfall will be steady to even heavy at times.  In total 1 to 2 inches of rain is likely across all of south-central Kentucky with most of that falling between midnight and 9 am.  After the rainfall moves out tomorrow around midday, skies will remain cloudy and temperatures will continue to cool behind the passage of a cold front.  Temperatures will start in the mid to upper 60s at midnight but will fall through the 50s during the day with 40s by 6 pm tomorrow.

WPC's QPF precipitation (rainfall) forecast valid for tonight through tomorrow.

Beyond tonight and tomorrow’s weather maker much of the rest of the week looks to be fairly quiet.  An upper-level trough pattern will work its way in behind this system which won’t allow temperatures to warm back up very quickly.  In fact highs will likely be in the 40s on Wednesday.  Along with the trough, some minor disturbances will pass through the Ohio Valley which will bring some clouds and the occasional chance of a sprinkle/flurry primarily Tuesday evening.  Looking on to the later part of the week and on to the weekend, it seems as though the trough will push to our east and a ridge and high pressure system will again move in bringing with it temperatures near 70 again by Friday and Saturday.

Daily Forecasts:

Tonight: Rain, which could be heavy at times.  Temperatures will start in the mid to upper 60s but will fall into the 50s by morning. South winds from 10-15 mph.  Rainfall between 0.75 -1.5 inches.

Monday: Rain likely in the morning ending around midday.  Otherwise cloudy with temperatures cooling from the 50s into the 40s by mid-afternoon. WSW to west winds from 8-16 mph. Total rainfall between 1 and 2 inches (including overnight rainfall).

Monday Night: Cloudy skies could become partly cloudy at times by morning. Light westerly winds with a low near 31.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny becoming partly to even mostly cloudy in the afternoon/evening.  High near 54. West winds from 8-14 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly to partly cloudy; a sprinkle/flurry cannot be ruled out early. WNW winds from 6-12 mph. Low near 31.

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny but cool with a high in the mid 40s.  Northwest winds from 5-12 mph.

Thursday: Cold start with lows in the upper 20s.  Mostly sunny with highs in the low 50s.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

Warming trend to continue into the weekend...

Good Friday everyone! Weather conditions have been absolutely great across the Commonwealth as temperatures have continued to warm over the past couple days. After a cold, wintry start to the week, a spring time ending for the weekend looks like a real possibility as surface high pressure and upper level ridging will take hold of our area!  Satellite imagery indicated some lower level stratus clouds earlier this morning  but have since thinned out leaving mostly sunny skies with temperatures reaching the low 50's over Bowling Green.  

300 mb Heights and Winds map, Valid for Saturday 15Z. Upper level ridge builds over much of the Eastern U.S. as our next trough amplifies to the west over the 4-corner region. Red arrows indicate areas of difluence showing favorable areas for rain and storm development over the Central Plains.

Looking ahead for tonight, clear and cold conditions are expected as the surface high keeps skies generally clear through the evening and overnight hours.  Lows will drop into the low 30's here in Bowling Green with slightly colder temperatures in the upper 20's the further north and east you live.  

Colder temperatures will kick off our day tomorrow, but should rebound nicely throughout the afternoon as Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the week! Highs in and around Bowling Green will give a spring tease to many as temperatures flirt with the low 60's across the region.  The highly amplified upper level ridge axis will continue its progression towards the Mid-Atlantic by Saturday night, as we should start to see some higher cirrus clouds work their way in ahead of the next system moving through.  Upstream troughing will continue to amplify  over the Central United States with a spit flow. This will translate to a rainy period beginning late Saturday night while extending into Monday.  

----------------

Saturday night: Partly cloudy with a 20% for showers.  Low: 47º. Winds from the south 5-10 mph. 

Sunday: Mostly Cloudy, with a warm high of 65º. Chance of rain, 50%. Winds from the south 15-20 mph, with gust up to 30 mph. 

Forecaster: Chris Johnson

Nice Sunday...conditions expected to change!

Conditions for your Sunday are expected to clear out nicely as cold but sunny skies prevail.  Morning temperatures have reminded many that winter is hanging tough with lows dropping into the upper 20's across south-central Kentucky.   A weak shortwave is currently passing overhead as the responsible trough will act to clear out the remaining flurries and embedded snow showers across the region.  A decrease in intensity/coverage is expected with the progression towards our east through the late-afternoon hours.  Skies should continue to clear from west to east as temperatures struggle to reach the mid 30's for today.  

Monday, we'll begin to turn our attention towards a surface low that will begin to organize during the morning hours as an upper trough digs southeast into the Great Plains.  Isentropic lift associated with the northward advancement of the warm front will help generate bands of light precipitation across the Mississippi Valley tonight, before moving eastward into our area by tomorrow morning.  A light mix is expected although chances for precipitation will be very light as temperatures will warm up quickly over south-central Kentucky.  Highs are expected to reach the low 50's over our area with temperatures in the upper 40's towards our north and east.  Conditions will begin to change as we head into the evening and overnight hours.  An elongated trough with an axis extending from parts of North Dakota through central Missouri with an increased southerly flow ahead of this system will help increase moisture values through the overnight hours. This moisture, accompanied by a region of strong isentropic lift passing through will allow a good shot for precipitation as our area could see moderate to heavy rainfall.  Low temperatures across the area are expected to drop into the upper 30's, low 40's under mostly cloudy skies. 

HPC's QPF map valid for Tuesday 0Z showing a light-moderate rainfall event over the Ohio Valley Region.

------------------

Tuesday: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 52. Southeast winds 5-10 mph. New rainfall amounts 0.10'' - 0.25'' expected. Chance of precip. 70%

Tuesday night:  Rain transitioning to snow. Cloudy, with a low around 31. West wind 10-15 mph.  Chance of precip. 60%

Wednesday: Rain/snow ending. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precip. 30%

Wednesday night. Mostly cloudy and colder. Low near 29. 

Thursday: Sunny and warmer.  High near 49.

Forecaster: Chris Johnson