After a Rainy Weekend, Sunny Skies Await

If you've been singing the old song "Rain, rain go away..." you finally got your wish after a very rainy first half of the weekend. Friday night into Sunday morning was certainly nothing short of soggy. Over an inch of rainfall fell county wide but some locations along and south of Hwy 80 picked up 2"-3"+. This led to some areas of flash flooding Saturday night. Flooding continues along Drakes Creek and as of this writing the creek had just reached a crest near Alvaton at the low end of the "Moderate" flooding level and was beginning to fall. (More info on Drakes Creek near Alvaton). There is also a flood warning along the Green River in northwest Warren County as "Minor" flooding is expected along the river; the river is forecast by the NWS to crest at 35.1 feet Monday evening at Woodbury (More info on Green River near Woodbury). Sunshine and warm temperatures should take over for the first half of this week allowing for some time for creeks/rivers to flow back in their banks and just allow for some overall drying out. Below are some rainfall totals for this rain event from the area; the further south you went the more rain that fell.

Simpson County Mesonet Site (4 SW Franklin) : 3.88"
Warren County Mesonet Site (5 S BG): 3.28"
Barren County Mesonet Site (11 W Glasgow): 3.01"
Bowling Green/Warren Co Regional Airport: 2.51"

Various 24-hour rainfall totals across central Kentucky for Saturday-Sunday. Image courtesy of the NWS Louisville. 

As mentioned the rain is over for the time being as the upper-level disturbance in the atmosphere is pushing to our east. An upper-level ridge will replace the disturbance which basically means sunny skies and warmer temperatures. In fact our temperatures will make a return to the 70s and 80s for high temperatures which should make for a few excellent spring like days. That is indeed the forecast for at least the first half of the week until a new disturbance moves in during the Thursday/Friday time frame. Rain chances work their way back in from Thursday into the weekend. Much cooler air will also move in and temperatures by this weekend will return to lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s which is below average for this time of year.

Daily Forecasts:

Tonight: Cloudy skies with some clearing by morning. Cool with a low near 47 and light to calm winds. Some fog is possible during the morning hours.

Monday: A few clouds possible early otherwise mostly sunny with a high near 72. Light southerly winds.

Monday Night: Clear skies with light winds. Low near 51.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny skies and warm with a high near 80 and light southerly winds.

Tuesday Night: Clear skies, light to calm winds and a low near 57.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny skies with a high near 82.

Thursday: A morning low around 60 and a high in the mid 70s. Increasing clouds with a 40% chance of rain.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

Rain arrives, much cooler air settles in...

The surface cold front arrived over the region early Wednesday morning as widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms affected portions of Western Kentucky.  Many areas picked up 0.50 - 0.75 inches of rain as Bowling Green recorded 0.76 inches via the Kentucky Mesonet.  Precipitation has ended across south-central Kentucky as dry conditions are expected through afternoon/evening hours. Unfortunately clouds will hang tough over the area as latest satellite imagery shows low level cloud cover across the state with the back edge near Missouri.  With that said, expect mostly cloudy skies with a few peaks of sunshine through the afternoon period with breezy and much cooler conditions over the area.

For tonight, the cold front will continue to push towards the eastern coast as high pressure is set to build in from the west.  A much dryer and cooler air mass will accompany this high with clearing skies and calming winds.  This will set the stage for temperatures to fall into the low-mid 30's statewide with the possibility of patchy frost developing early Thursday morning.  The National Weather Service out of Louisville has issued a FROST ADVISORY  for south-central KY and counties to the north and east of the I-65 corridor.  This advisory will be in effect from 2AM EDT/1AM CDT - 9AM EDT/8AM CDT Thursday.

The Louisville National Weather Service (NWS) latest watches, warning, & advisories showing many counties under a FROST ADVISORY for tonight/early Thursday morning. 

Although conditions for Thursday will begin cold, temperatures look to rebound nicely as high pressure will track across the region Thursday and into Thursday night.  Warmer temperatures are expected to reach highs in the low-mid 60's under mostly sunny skies with light winds from the west allowing for a nice spring day across south-central KY.

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Forecast Outlook:

Thursday Night: Mostly Clear and cool. Low: 38º. Light NW winds 5-10 mph.

Friday: Partly Sunny skies. High: 64º. Light and variable winds from the East.

Friday Night: Increasing clouds. 50% chance for showers.  Low 49º.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, High: 64º.  50% chance for showers.

Saturday Night: Mostly Cloudy, Low: 54º.  40% chance for showers.


Forecaster: Chris Johnson

Another springlike day across the area, rain chances increase by Tuesday evening....

What a gorgeous start to the week as conditions across the area have warmed up nicely giving a nice spring feel across the region with highs in the low-mid 70's.  Mostly sunny skies have dominated the area as some fair weather cumulus clouds have developed.  Skies should remain mostly clear through the evening hours as those cumulus clouds should eventually dissipate leaving clear skies for tonight.  Lows tonight will be rather mild compared to what we experienced over the weekend, with generally mid and upper 40's expected.

Surface high pressure has dominated much of the region since the weekend and is currently positioned just to our east.  Eventually the high pressure will work towards the east as another cold front will begin to approach our area from the northwest.  By Tuesday afternoon, the cold front will be stretched from the Great Lakes region southwestward, towards parts of northeast Texas, and approaching the lower Ohio Valley.  Conditions across the area will be relatively warm with strong southerly winds from the southwest as breezy/warm conditions will prevail for your Tuesday.  The cold front will continue to track towards the east and will cross the area Tuesday night bringing a chance for rain and scattered thunderstorms.  Most convection should remain post frontal, so the likelihood of severe weather looks grim.  Main threats continue to be gusty winds with a moderate rainfall event with amounts of 0.5-1.0 inch area wide Tuesday night/Wednesday.

NOAA/WPC QPF (Valid 00z Wednesday - 00z Thursday). Expected precipitation amounts.

This cold front will push through late Wednesday morning which could dampen your morning class/work commute.  Be sure to keep the umbrella handy as you head out the door Wednesday morning as the chance for rain showers will be possible.  As the cold front works through the region, temperatures are expected to temporarily cool off with chilly highs struggling to reach the 60 degree mark on Wednesday.

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Forecast Outlook:

Tuesday night:  Cloudy, Low 51º. South winds expected around 10-15 mph, becoming west after midnight with a 90% chance for precipitation. Rainfall amounts expected between a tenth and a quarter of an inch. 

Wednesday: Cloudy, High near 60º.  Northwest winds expected around 5-10 mph.  80% chance for precipitation   Rainfall amounts expected between a quarter and half of an inch.  

Wednesday night: Partly cloudy, Low 51º.  Northwest winds expected around 5-7 mph becoming calm after midnight.


Forecaster: Chris Johnson

Severe Weather Thursday Night

Current Conditions:  
The current temperature as of 8:56 P.M. is 75 and the high today was 87 with a low this morning of 64.  Winds are out of the south at 9 mph.  Currently there is a positively tilted upper level low over Utah with a trough axis stretching from Southwest Utah down into Mexico.  A ridge axis lies over our area which aided in the warm temperatures today.  In the Mid-Levels of the atmosphere, the upper level low is still visible over southeast Utah and western Colorado.  A ridge pattern is still over our area.  At the 700mb associated with the upper level low over Utah is saturated air and over our area, winds are from the south which is why our temperatures are in the mid 70's.  This is also seen at the 850mb level as Warm Air Advection is occurring over our area.  Looking at the surface, there is a 996 surface low over western Texas right now and another surface low over the Southwest corner of Missouri.  A stationary front stretches from southeast Kansas down into Texas with a warm front stretching from Missouri over into West Virginia.  The warm front is to our north indicating that we are in the warm sector.

Forecast:
Moving into tomorrow, the upper level trough will continue to deepen due to a jet streak propagating around the upper level low.  This will help strengthen the trough and it will still remain positively tilted.  A weak diffluent flow will be over our area tomorrow indicating weak synoptic or large scale lift over our area.  Due to the winds being out of the south tomorrow, it will be bringing warm Gulf of Mexico moisture into our area which will aid in the line of storms that will be moving through tomorrow night.  The surface low over Missouri currently will move to the northeast allowing the cold front to come into and provide frontal forcing out ahead of it.  The temperature tomorrow will be 84 setting up the unstable environment as the storms move through.  As it stands right now, the main line will move through Warren County at 10:00 P.M.  The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk risk for us tomorrow.

Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Outlook.

The main threat as the line moves through our area will be straight line winds and hail.  Since this system will be moving through the nighttime hours, it is important to have your weather radios ready to go.

Thursday:  High: 84  Low: 56   winds out of the South at 25 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 85%.

Friday:  High:  59  Low: 53 winds out of the Northwest at 17 mph.  Light precipitation in the early morning and will end by 10:00 A.M. Chance of precipitation is 75%.

Saturday:  High: 64  Low: 36  winds out of the Northwest at 5 mph.  Frost is possible early in the morning.  No precipitation expected.

Sunday:  High: 67  Low: 36  winds out of the South at 5 mph.  No precipitation expected.   

Forecaster:  Tyler Binkley                           

Warm week ahead!

Current Conditions:
The morning low this morning was 43 and the current temperature as of 2:15 P.M. is 75 with partly cloudy conditions.  Winds are out of the South at 12mph.  Currently in the upper levels of the atmosphere, there is an upper level low over Northeast Wyoming and Southeast Montana.  Over our area, we have a ridge axis stretching from Minnesota down into Tennessee which is aiding in our warm, dry conditions today.  Looking at the mid-level part of the atmosphere, there is a shortwave trough located over Alabama and Georgia which has generated the rain over that area.  This is the reason for the light cloud cover over our area today.  Winds from the south are generating Warm Air Advection which is causing our temperature to be warm today.  A 994 surface low is located over eastern Nebraska with a warm front stretching from Iowa over into Indiana.  The Cold front stretches from Nebraska down into the northern Panhandle of Texas then over into New Mexico.  There is nothing over our area.

Visible Imagery Valid for 1:30 P.M. on April 14, 2013.

Forecast:
 Due to the winds out of the South, expecting the high temperature for today to be 76.  The low tonight will be 54 and the low in the morning will be 51.  The upper level low off to our northwest will move to the northeast throughout the next two days and will effect us by causing our winds to remain from the south Monday and Tuesday and a slight rain chance early Tuesday Morning.  The slight rain chance on Tuesday Morning is due to the cold front which will remain just to our north, could cause some showers.  Any rain that does occur will be very light. Currently watching a system that will be moving through late Wednesday and during the day on Thursday which could bring some thunderstorms into the area.  Will have more on this later as the time progresses.  After this system passes, temperatures will drop and models are indicating temperatures in the mid 30's which could mean potential frost, therefore keep that in mind if you plan on planting in your gardens this week.

Monday:  High:  76   Low:  51  Mostly Sunny skies with winds out of the south at 12-16 mph.

Tuesday:  High:  81  Low:  62  Partly cloudy skies with winds out of the south at 12-16 mph.  20%  Chance of rain in the morning.   

Wednesday:  High: 83  Low: 56 Partly cloudy skies with winds out of the south at 8-10 mph.


Forecaster:  Tyler Binkley      

A Beautiful Ending to an Ugly Week

Outlook:

Friday: High: 64, Low: 38.  Sunny skies with gusty winds coming out of the west southwest around 17 mph.

Saturday: High: 60, Low: 44.  Sunny skies with gusty winds coming out of the west northwest around 13 mph.

Sunday: High: 76, Low: 44.  Sunny to partly cloudy skies with gusty winds out of the south southeast around 13 mph.

Discussion

After the cold front passed through our area, we can expect to have slightly cooler temperatures as highs will be in the lower 60s on Friday and Saturday.  On Sunday, however, a surface high pressure system will move in over our area bringing in warm moist air from the south causing our temperatures to increase to the mid 70s and bring the moisture needed for a few clouds.  Winds will be gusty due to the strength of the cold front that passed by and the strength of the surface high pressure system.

Surface temperature on Sunday around 4:00 pm CDT.

Forecaster: Will Paschall

Severe Threat for Thursday

The Storm Prediction Center has put Bowling Green, KY under a slight risk threat for severe weather for late Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning.  Check back here for any further updates as this system get closer to us.

Forecaster: Will Paschall

Beautiful Beginning Leading to a Stormy End

Week at a Glance

Monday: High: 72, Low: 60.  Clouds will remain in the area throughout the day and will start clearing out during the night with gusty winds coming out of the South around 21 mph during the day and switching to the South-Southeast and slowing down to around 7 mph overnight.

Tuesday: High: 77, Low: 61. Partly to mostly cloudy skies during the day increasing to cloudy skies overnight with increasing chances for a small rain shower.  Winds will not be as gusty as they were on Monday with winds out of the South-Southeast staying around 13 mph during the day and shifting to South and slowing down to around 8 mph.  Chance of rain: 20%.

Wednesday: High: 72, Low: 57.  Mostly cloudy skies throughout the day and overnight with a chance of a small rain shower.  Slightly stronger winds coming out of the South around 15 mph switching to coming out of the South-Southwest around 9 mph. Chance of rain: 20%.

Thursday: High: 63, Low: 52.  Showers and thunderstorms with a chance of some severe weather Thursday morning becoming more of a chance for showers throughout the day and overnight.  Winds will be out of West around 11 mph during the day and slow down to about 6 mph overnight. Chance of rain: 70%.

Weather Discussion

Monday and Tuesday will be the nice days of the week as a high pressure system dominates our area bringing warm moist air from the gulf causing our highs to be in the low to mid 70s and lows in the low 60s. As a strong upper level disturbance progresses across the plains, clouds will increase Wednesday bringing with it a small chance of a stray shower.  Thursday is when we are really expecting the rain as the same upper level disturbance comes into the Bowling Green area Thursday morning bringing with it a potential severe weather threat.  Rain totals for Thursday can be between 1.25"-1.50".  Stay tuned to this blog as Thursday approaches for any severe weather updates.

Combined rain totals for both Wednesday and Thursday.

Forecaster: Will Paschall

A Beautiful Warm Weekend Ahead after Showers on Thursday!

Week at a Glance:

Thursday: High 50, Low 37. Rain showers moving in by lunch time and continuing into Friday morning. Rain totals will remain less than .10". Chance of precipitation 70%. Winds light at 1-5 mph.

Friday: High, 53. Low, 37. Scattered rain showers ending by 10 am. Sunshine returns with a slight warm up. Chance of precipitation 20%. Winds at 5-10 mph. 

Saturday: High, 72, Low, 51. Mostly sunny with a warm up for the weekend. Chance of precipitation 10%. Winds at 10-15 mph.

Discussion:

Thursday will bring showers by Noon as a low pressure system passes to the south further enhanced by an upper level disturbance. Rain totals should be light and under .10". The highs for Thursday will be in the low 50's with lows in the mid-30's. Showers will continue off and on throughout the day into early Friday morning. Patchy fog could be a concern by around 1 am Friday morning but will quickly dissolve as the sun comes up. Friday will start out partly cloudy as remnants of the Thursday system move out to the east. Sunshine will move in by 10 am and remain mostly sunny as the day progresses. Highs are expected to be in the mid-50's with lows in the mid-30's. Saturday will bring a warm up as high pressure builds back in from the west brining temperatures into the 70's. Saturday will be mostly sunny with little chance of precipitation as an area of low pressure moves to the north. This system will cause a tightening in the pressure gradient and increasing winds Saturday from 10-15 mph. Lows Saturday are expected to be in the low-50's. A beautiful weekend ahead! Next chance of showers are on Sunday.

GFS MSLP Valid for 18z (Noon) Thursday April, 4 2013

HPC Precipitation Totals Valid for 12z Thursday April 4, 2013 thru 12z April 5, 2013

Forecaster: Emily Yates