Rain Continues

Discussion:

As of 10:21 this evening, the current temperature is 69°F with the humidity values above 95%.  The winds are coming out of the SE around 6 mph.  The unseasonal temperatures will continue for our area for the next couple of days.  This is all due to a cold front associated with a surface low pressure system that is slowly making its way to us from the central plains.  As this cold front gets closer to the Bowling Green area, the chances of seeing rain will increase as well as the chance of thunderstorms, but as of right now, they are not looking to be severe storms.

Current satellite view with fronts

Outlook:

Wednesday: High 83, Low 68. Winds coming out of the south between 6-8 mph.  Showers and thunderstorms likely throughout the morning with smaller chances of a shower after noon. A quarter to half an inch of rain is possible.  Chance of rain: 70%

Thursday: High 83 Low 66.  Winds will be calm in the morning then strengthening to 5-8 mph out of the northwest.  Showers and thunderstorm are possible up till 2:00 pm, then skies will be clear up to partly cloudy skies by the end of the day. Chance of rain: 20%


Forecaster: Will Paschall

Cooler and less humid start to the Weekend!

Current:


A much cooler afternoon is in store for us today.  Current temperature is 81 w/ a few clouds around and winds NW at 5 mph.  Since the winds are out of the north, it has helped to stabilize the atmosphere eroding our chances for showers and storms this afternoon.  The cause of the cooler temperatures is an upper level low located over the great lakes.  All upper level moisture has been pushed south of our area is currently over northern Alabama.  Since the upper level moisture was pushed south, this will cause us to have less humid conditions.  At the surface, a cold front stretches from the Texas Panhandle all the way up the east coast.  The cold front pushed through earlier this morning, therefore we can expect cooler temperatures this afternoon/evening and into tomorrow.  Surface low is located over Arkansas.

Infared Satellite image valid for 3:15 P.M. CDT.  Take note of the clear conditions over KY.

Forecast:
The upper level low that is currently over the great lakes will remain in control of our weather over the next couple of days.  Cooler temperatures and less humid conditions are in store for tomorrow with warmer conditions returning on Friday.  On Friday, the upper level low will deepen starting at Iowa and will propagate down over our area into Saturday.  With this deepening, a cold front is expected to move through Friday night into Saturday.  Due to increased upper level moisture, moderate to heavy rain is anticipated with this system.  Rain chances were will diminish throughout the day on Saturday.   As the time gets closer, will have more on this weather situation.  Tomorrow, expect a high temperature of 83 with cooler conditions and the low will be 56 with mostly sunny skies with winds remaining out of the north.  

Days at a Glance

Thursday:   High- 83   Low- 59  Winds north at 5 mph with mostly sunny skies.  No precipitation is expected.     

Friday:   High- 87  Low- 60  Winds west at 5 mph with partly cloudy skies.  No precipitation expected during the day, however as a cold front approaches from the west, chances increase for the evening and overnight hours.  Chance of precipitation is 60% 

Saturday:  High- 85  Low- 63  Winds north at 5 mph with mostly cloudy skies becoming clear.  Precipitation is expected in the early morning hours tapering off in the afternoon.  Chance of precipitation is 40%

Sunday:  High- 87  Low- 64  Winds north at 5 mph with mostly sunny skies.  No precipitation is expected.

Forecaster:  Tyler Binkley        

Wet start to the Week

Current: 
It has been a wet commute for many this morning as showers, some heavy at times, moved through Bowling Green this morning.  The temperature is 74 with winds SW at 10 mph and humidity is 94% as of 10:45 A.M.  Warren County has picked up 0.84 in. of rain since 12:00 A.M. this morning according to the Mesonet station in Bowling Green.  A slow moving shortwave trough is located over northern Kentucky and southern Indiana and Ohio.  The shortwave trough is causing enhanced lift over our area allowing for the formation of the showers this morning.  At the surface, the surface low is located over Illinois with a stationary front stretching from Minnesota over to the east coast.  Since the humidity is still relatively high, more shower development is possible today which means driving conditions could become treacherous. 



Visible Satellite with fronts valid for 11:13 A.M. on Monday, July 22, 2013.

 

Forecast:
Showers will continue to move off to the east this morning and allow for clearing conditions to occur.  Winds will remain out of the south over the next few days bringing with it warm Gulf of Mexico moist air allowing for occasional pop-up showers to occur as afternoon heating occurs.  Shear will be weak as the storms occur so the only threat will be moderate to heavy rainfall and cloud-ground lightning.  The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for tomorrow due to the saturated air coming in from the Gulf which could prompt storms to fire tomorrow afternoon.  A few of these storms could become severe.  Models are currently indicating a cold front moving through Wednesday evening which will bring cooler, less humid conditions for the weekend.  More on this as time progresses.  The high for today is expected to be 84 and the low tonight will be 71.

Slight Risk for Day 2 issued on July 22, 2013, at 12:30 P.M. CDT

Monday:  High- 84  Low- 71  rain will continue to move off to the east allowing for clear skies to occur in the afternoon. 

Tuesday:  High- 92  Low- 71  winds south at 11 mph.  Mostly sunny skies becoming cloudy later in the day as afternoon heating occurs.  Scattered thunderstorms possible after 5:00 P.M.  Chance of rain 30%. 

Wednesday:  High- 84  Low- 67 winds south at 5 mph becoming north later in the day at 11 mph as a front moves through.  Rain chances increase after midnight as the front moves closer.  Chance of rain is 60%. 


Forecaster:  Tyler Binkley         


                  

Stormy Weekend will Bring Cooler Temperatures!

Discussion:

It's been a hot and humid work week in Warren County. The strong upper level ridge positioned over the Ohio Valley has brought hot temperatures and uncomfortable dew points with it. This afternoon, Bowling Green reached 94 degrees, and dew point temperatures in the 70s allowed heat indices to top out around 100 degrees today. Winds have been light and variable today, not offering much in the way of relief from the heat. Isolated showers and thunderstorms popped up across Kentucky this afternoon driven by daytime heating and these should continue into the evening before dissipating. These showers and storms are very isolated in nature and the only threat with them will be some cloud to ground lightning and brief heavy rain. Overnight, we will stay pretty warm as temperatures will only dip into the lower to middle 70s. With dew points still around 70 degrees, not much relief from the heat can be expected over night and patchy fog may develop by daybreak in some low lying areas. Much of the same story tomorrow, as temperatures will climb back in the lower to middle 90s. This will allow for some more isolated showers and storms to pop up again. The ridge over our area will have weakened just a little bit, allowing for a bit more thunderstorm coverage, but these should die off as we lose daytime heating tomorrow night.

Current surface observations at 5 P.M. this evening show hot and humid weather across most of the eastern United States.

Friday will be our last day dealing with the heat and humidity and temperatures will soar once more into the lower 90s. An upper level trough will be moving into the area on Friday afternoon and convection will be expected to pop up once more, but forcing from the incoming surface cold front to our north may allow for these storms to continue into the night. As the front sags south, Saturday will be interesting as precipitation will spread south throughout the day. This cold front will allow for fairly widespread rain and thunderstorms late Saturday. Even with the instability that will be in place, lack of wind shear should limit these storms from becoming organized and becoming severe. Regardless, a thunderstorm producing brief high winds cannot be ruled out late Saturday into Saturday night, and heavy rain and lightning will still be a threat with the storms. How far south this front goes is still in question, as there are some indications that the front will slow down after passing over southern Kentucky, allowing for precipitation to linger into Sunday. Around a quarter to a half inch of rain is expected with this frontal passage. With the trough in place, Sunday will feel much cooler as temperatures will only reach the mid to upper 80s, with much more comfortable dew points.

Days at a Glance:

Wednesday Night: Low - 74 Winds - NE around 5 mph becoming calm overnight.
Precipitation - 20% chance of an isolated thunderstorm. Any isolated storms in the area will diminish by late evening. Skies - Mostly Clear.

Thursday: High - 93 Low - 74 Winds - Light and Variable.
Precipitation - 20% chance of an isolated thunderstorm. Any isolated storms in the area will diminish by late evening. Skies - Mostly Clear.

Friday: High - 94 Low - 73 Winds - SW 4 to 7 mph.
Precipitation - 30% chance of thunderstorms. Some of these storms may continue into Friday night. Skies - Mostly Clear

Saturday: High - 89 Low - 70 Winds - SW 5 to 10 mph.
Precipitation - 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the evening.  Skies - Mostly Cloudy. Total Precipitation - 0.25" to 0.5" An isolated severe storm with damaging winds cannot be ruled out.

Sunday: High - 87 Low - 69 Winds - NW around 5 mph.
Precipitation - 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Skies - Partly Cloudy

Forecaster: Zack Leasor

Warming Up!

Discussion:

Temperatures across Warren County this afternoon reached the upper 80's as a strong upper level ridge continues to move in from the east. This strong ridge will be here to stay as dewpoints continue to rise and the humidity returns. These higher dewpoints have created enough instability to kick up some scattered showers and thunderstorms across southern Kentucky this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity remains relatively weak, with storms only producing a brief downpour and maybe a few rumbles of thunder. Otherwise partly cloudy skies can be expected for the remainder of the evening and into overnight. These scattered showers and thunderstorms should diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Low temperatures will fall into the lower 70s overnight.

12Z GFS model showing strong upper level ridge over Kentucky. Valid 18Z Monday (courtesy NOAA)

Winds from the southeast on Monday will usher in higher temperatures and dewpoints and this will set the stage for the weather this week. Afternoon highs will top out in the low 90's Monday and Tuesday with high temperatures possibly creeping into the middle 90's by Wednesday. A saturated ground over most of Kentucky will help limit temperatures from climbing much higher this week, but will allow for dewpoints to rise to around 70 degrees creating some very muggy weather. Heat indices could near 100 degrees by mid week! Low temperatures will remain fairly mild during this time, only falling in the lower to middle 70s. This ridge will also allow for mostly clear skies through Wednesday. A stray afternoon shower and thunderstorm can't be ruled out Monday and Tuesday, and isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon as thunderstorm coverage increases.

Days at a Glance:

Sunday Night: Low - 71 Winds - SE 5 mph becoming calm overnight.
Precipitation - 30% chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 10 p.m. Otherwise, mostly clear skies can be expected overnight. Precipitation totals - less than .10"

Monday: High - 91 Low - 73 Winds - SE 5 to 10 mph becoming calm overnight.
Precipitation - 20% chance of an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon. Skies - Mostly Clear

Tuesday: High - 92 Low - 74 Winds - Calm wind becoming NE around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Precipitation - 10% An isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon is possible. Skies - Mostly Clear

Wednesday: High - 93 Low - 75 Winds - Light and variable.
Precipitation - 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms. Skies - Mostly Clear

Forecaster: Zack Leasor

A Cool Down to End the Work Week and a Beautiful Saturday to Get Outside!

Forecast Highlights:
Thursday: High, 84. Low, 64. Foggy conditions in the morning clearing around lunchtime. A 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Winds 5-10 knots N.

Friday: High, 87. Low, 65. Clouds clearing out for mostly sunny conditions. Winds 5-10 knots NE. A beautiful start to the weekend!

Saturday: High, 85. Low, 62. Winds NE 5-10 knots. Partly cloudy with clouds increasing into the evening.

Sunday: High, 83. Low, 60. Winds SE 5-10 knots. Clouds increasing with 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Discussion:
A cold frontal boundary swept through the southeast last night bringing much cooler temperatures and foggy morning conditions on Thursday. Highs will remain in the upper 80's with lows in the mid-60's for the remainder of the week into the weekend. The trough that came in Wednesday bringing the severe weather will continue to advance out to the east with clearing skies into Friday. Friday will bring sunshine into the Commonwealth with highs reaching back up slightly from Thursday and Friday as a ridge of high pressure and surface high pressure builds in behind the exiting trough.

GFS MSLP 1000-500 mb thickness precipitation (in) valid for 1 pm CDT

The next chance at showers/thunderstorms will come Sunday as the surface high moves off the Atlantic Coast and a southern flow returns our moisture source into the area. Thunderstorm activity will be scattered in nature. Cloud cover will move in Sunday increasing into Sunday night.


Forecaster: Emily Yates Thornton

Hot and Humid with Relief on Your Wednesday Hump Day

Forecast Highlights:
Monday: High, 90. Low, 72. Partly cloudy with isolated shower chance around 20%. Winds SW at 5-10 knots.

Tuesday:High, 92. Low,  70. Partly cloudy with isolated shower chance around 30%. Winds SW at 5-10 knots becoming more south.

Wednesday: High, 88. Low, 70. Widespread shower/thunderstorm chances return beginning early in the morning becoming more frequent into afternoon. Damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall will be the largest threat. Winds southwest from 10-15 knots.

Discussion:
The first part of our week leading into Wednesday we will be under the influence of upper air ridging and surface high pressure keeping our skies partly cloudy and sunny with very warm. A few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out ,as is the story for the past few weeks, as daytime heating leads to strong instability and a moist airmass in place. The lack of a "trigger" will keep the storms isolated in nature and lower chances into the 20-30%. Wednesday, the upper air ridging will break down as a trough swings in from the west. Our rain chances will begin to increase into the day Wednesday as shortwave disturbances begin to ripple through ahead of the main trough.

GFS 700 mb Heights/Winds/RH/Omega Valid Wednesday July 10 at 1 AM CDT

 Flood prone areas could see flash flooding where locally heavy rainfall occurs. Temperatures will cool down slightly from the first part of the week as the trough brings in a cooler air mass to the area. A cold frontal boundary will pass through Friday morning bringing a cool down for Saturday.  An update later in the week on Wednesday will speak more to the storm mode and severe storm chances which right now seem marginal.


Forecaster: Emily Yates Thornton
Next Update:7/10/13

Rain Continues into the Weekend...

Happy Independence Day! Hope you all have had a wonderful forth of July and have found a way to stay dry! As of right now the rain has moved off to the east making for a goodnight for fireworks. There is a chance tonight that the rain may move back to west as it moves north and reenter Warren County. According to the Kentucky Mesonet, Warren County has accumulated 1.22" of precipitation. Several counties to the east of Bowing Green have accumulated upwards of 2.5".

As the week comes to an end, the chance for rain only diminishes slightly. Friday will have a high of 80 and a low around 65 with a 60% chance of rain throughout the day. Saturday looks to be the same as Friday, but with a high of 82. It is not until Sunday that the rain chances begin to end. However, the chances will not be completely gone. There will be small chances of thunderstorms for the next few days in the afternoon as well. As next week rolls around, we begin to see the warmer weather that we normally expect for the first week of July. Monday's high looks to be around 87. That is far from record setting, but it is still hot.

Daily Forecast:
Tonight: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 3am, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 3am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy, with a low around 67. East wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. South wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precip. is 60%, New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch. except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy, with a low around 67. South wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precip 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and a half of an inch possible.

Saturday: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 79. South wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precip is 60%.

Sunday: A 30% chance of showers. Partly sunny, high near 82.

Monday: A 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, high near 87.

Tuesday: A 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, high near 87.


Forecaster: John Logan Thomas

Cool Temperatures for the 4th

Monday was filled with several storms that rolled through Kentucky, including several hail producing storms as well. Simpson and Green counties saw large hail a little after noon Monday along with strong winds that covered the state. The Mesonet site for Warren County at the WKU farm measured 1.72" of rain for the day. Monday morning started off with several Flash Flood Warnings for much of Warren County. Around 7 A.M. there were minor reports of flooding including water blocking Russellville Rd. as it passes under the railroad track before entering campus.

This week will continue the same pattern that began in the later parts of last week. A high pressure system has set up off the east coast blocking a low pressure system that is centered over the Tennessee Valley. This will remain in place for the next few days causing a stationary front to form and drape across the Southeast United States. This was explained in the last post, but it is still happening right now. A high pressure system is also called a ridge where a low pressure system is called a trough. Underneath the ridge hot dry air fills in from Mexico creating much higher than normal temperatures for the Nevada and Utah region. The trough however is dipping down below Bowling Green, KY and down into Tennessee for the next few days allowing the cooler air from the north to flow into Southern Kentucky. These temperatures are unseasonable for this area in the end of June and the beginning of July.

As this trough tries to move through our area, several isolated storms will be created in the afternoons for the next few days. Some of that was seen yesterday as the storms increased around 4 P.M. The same pattern will appear today with a 40% chance for rain around 9am. As the day progresses so do the chances for a few isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon continuing into the night. The high tomorrow will top out at a mild 82. The same is expected for Wednesday and Thursday as well with rain in the afternoons and mild high temperature. It is going to be a wet week, but get out and enjoy the cooler weather if at all possible, because it will not last forever.  

Daily Forecasts:
Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Calm winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
 
Tuesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, maily after 1 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the morning.

Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudly, with a low around 66. South wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Independence day! A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostlly cloudy, with a high near 82. Showers and thunderstorms likely to continue that night. Mostly cloudy, low around 68. Chance of precipitation in 60%.

Friday:  Showers and thunderstorms likerly. Cloudy, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitaion is 60%.
 

Forecaster: John Logan Thomas