A sunny rest of the week with some weekend storm chances! Heat index may effect any outdoor plans.

Thursday: High, 92. Few clouds with mostly sunny conditions. Heat index values could rise over 100. Winds northwest at 7-10 mph.

Thursday Night: Low, 72. Clearing skies with winds becoming calm.

Friday: High, 93. Light winds with another day of possible high heat index. Mostly clear and sunny.

Friday Night: Low, 73. Few clouds with light winds.

Saturday: High, 89. A few scattered showers possible. Clouds increasing through the afternoon.

Saturday Night: Low, 73. Few clouds with light winds.

Sunday:High, 90. Mostly sunny with winds 5-10 mph. A few scattered storms/showers possible.

Sunday Night: Low, 73. Clouds increasing into the evening.

Discussion:
The front promised earlier in the week has begun to sag into northern Kentucky this evening moving slower than originally forecast. This front will not bring much in the way of relief as we continue to see a persistent ridge of high pressure aloft. The hot and humid near 90 degree days looks to continue into the weekend. Saturday, we will begin to see this high pressure ridge finally begin to sink back southwest and a return of near 80 temperatures possible into next week. A few shower and storm chances into the weekend as a few weak upper level disturbances move in Saturday night into Sunday. Without any strong atmospheric forcing, it is hard to say any significant activity will develop. With the ridge moving slightly southwest, areas to the east will have the best chance as they are on the edge of the retrograding ridge.

Figure: (Right) 12 z Friday NAM forecast 250 mb heights and winds showing upper level ridging still in place. (Left) 12 z Sunday NAM forecast 250 mb heights and winds showing ridge has moved southwest with relief in some small disturbances aloft.

Looking into the weekend, the high heat index values of 100 could be possible. Outdoor activities should be done with caution remaining well hydrated. Saturday night/Sunday could produce some thunderstorm development. A few of these may be strong with the best chances to the east. Storms should be scattered in nature.



Forecaster: Emily Thornton
Next Update: Sunday, August 31.

Summer is Still Here! A Warm Week Ahead with Rain Chances Wednesday.

Tuesday: High, 90 . A warm day with only a few clouds in the afternoon. Light southerly winds around 5-10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Low, 72 . Cooling down the low 70's with clearing skies and light wind around 5-7 mph.

Wednesday: High, 92. Warming up slightly from Tuesday. Winds shifting from the west at 5-10 mph. Clouds increasing into the afternoon. 10% chance of precipitation into the afternoon.

Wednesday Night: Low, 73. A mostly cloudy night with lows in the mid to low 70's. Winds around 5-10 mph.

Discussion:
An upper level ridge and surface high pressure will remain in place across the central and eastern US suppressing much in the way of thunderstorm/rain development in the afternoons as has been the pattern most of the summer. More "summer" like temperatures with highs into the 90's for your work week. Dew points will remain in the 60's and 70's making for humid conditions as moisture is pulled in around the surface high.

Figure: Right: NAM 250 mb heights and winds valid for 12 z Wednesday showing upper level ridging still in place over Western Kentucky. Left:  NAM 12 z MSLP/6 HR Precipitation/ 1000-500 mb thickness valid for Wednesday showing surface front and corresponding expected six hour precipitation totals with more favorable development in eastern Kentucky. 

The surface high will begin to move out Tuesday night. The ridging aloft looks to remain in place through the period. A weak cold frontal boundary will move in Tuesday night into Wednesday. The ridging aloft and a "lid" in the the form of a consistently warm temperature profile as you move up from the surface will work against any thunderstorm development. A few stray showers and thunderstorms may develop Wednesday afternoon in areas where this "lid" breaks down from surface heating. The best areas for development appear to be to the east of Warren County.

Forecaster: Emily Thornton
Next Forecast Update: Wednesday, August 28.

Weekend Will Be Sunny & Warm

Daily Forecasts: 

Friday Night: Clear skies with light north to northeasterly winds. Low around 64. Some patchy fog is possible in the morning.

Saturday: Sunny skies and warm with a high near 90. Northeast winds from 5-10 mph.

Saturday Night: Clear skies with a low near 63. Light to calm winds with patchy fog again possible.

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies with a 10% chance of an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon. Still warm with a high around 89. South to southwest winds at 4-8 mph.

Sunday Night: Clear skies and a low near 68. Light south to southwesterly winds.

Monday: Mostly sunny skies with a high around 90. 10% chance of an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon.

Discussion: Summer has made a come back during the later half of this week and that trend looks to continue into the weekend. After an extended time of unseasonably cool temperatures, the temperature has warmed back up to the upper 80s; 89 is the average high this time of year. A very weak cold front has slid through the Commonwealth today which sparked off a few showers and thunderstorms, predominately over southern and western parts of the state. A few storms pulsed up and briefly became severe, one of which happened to be over parts of Warren County. There were several reports of pea to quarter sized hail mainly confined to south side of Bowling Green along Scottsville Road down to I-65. The image below was hail sent in by Andrew Schuler which fell at Sam's Club near the intersection of Scottsville Road and I-65. The storm also dumped some heavy rain with over 1.5" of rain falling at the Warren Co mesonet site.

This photo was captured near the intersection of Scottsville Road and I-65 (Sam's club) this afternoon during a severe thunderstorm. Photo courtesy of Andrew Schuler.

Now with the cold front past, the threat of scattered thunderstorms has come to an end and the chance for more thunderstorms will be very low the next couple of days. We'll generally have mostly sunny to sunny skies through the weekend. Only a very slight (10%) chance for an isolated thunderstorm in the heat of the day will exist during the afternoon hours. Some patchy fog will be possible during the morning hours. While the cold front did bring lowered rain chances and some drier air, it didn't bring cooler air so take the name "cold front" with a grain of salt. Temperatures won't cool at all during the next couple of days but rather they will continue to be warm with highs around 90. Our calm and warm weather will be thanks to a high pressure system in control of weather over the Ohio Valley and into the mid-south. The area of high pressure will stick around into much of next week with our next real weather maker not forecast to impact the area until mid-week. Temperatures will remain warm into mid-week with highs generally in the low 90s.

This is a modeled (NAM) forecast temperatures for Saturday afternoon. Despite the "cold" front temperatures will still be around 90 for afternoon highs through the weekend into early next week.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

Afternoon Rain Chances as Temperatures Return to Near Average

Daily Forecast:

This Afternoon: Partly cloudy with a high around 83. East winds at 2-8 mph.

Tonight: Partly to mostly clear with a low near 65. Some patchy fog is possible during the morning hours. Winds will be light to calm.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of an afternoon thunderstorm; high around 85. Winds will from the southeast at 2-8 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly to mostly clear with a low near 67. Calm to light southerly winds

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. High near 87. Light winds from 2-8 mph out of the south-southwest.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy with a low around 67. Light to calm southwesterly winds.

Thursday: Partly cloudy skies with a high around 89. 40% chance of scattered afternoon thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with a low near 68. 30% chance of a scattered thunderstorm early.

Discussion: Despite how the weather has felt lately it is indeed still August. Temperatures have been 5 -15 degrees below average for the past several days during what should be one of the hottest months of the year. Temperatures have gradually warmed though as we moved through the weekend from the 70s last Friday to the low 80s today (Monday). As for precipitation? Rainfall was heavy with a round of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon in which the Bowling Green/Warren County Regional Airport picked up over an 1.50 inches of rainfall. For the most part things have dried out since then despite our fair share of clouds in the area.

Looking into the week ahead, no major weather systems are expected to impact south-central Kentucky. An area of weak surface high pressure will control our weather for the most part though an area of disturbed weather over the southeastern US will slowly creep north and east. An area of disturbed weather in the upper-levels will also settle in across the Ohio Valley. While the best rain chances will be to our southeast from Alabama to the Carolinas rain chances will gradually increase from 20% Tuesday to 40% by Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Any thunderstorms will be scattered in nature but could bring some lighting and heavy downpours at times. Temperatures should continue to gradually warm and will return to near normal with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 by mid-week.

The NAM model forecast for Wednesday afternoon indicates the high pressure system over the southeast with a chance for scattered thunderstorms over south-central Kentucky.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

Chance of Rain for the Weekend

Discussion:
As the weekend approaches, so does the chance for rain. Bowling Green is directly between a high pressure system centered in Michigan, and a low pressure stationary system down around Florida. The high pressure will diminish on Saturday allowing for moisture to build up in the atmosphere. This will  bring a chance of rain and a thunderstorm or two for the whole weekend and even into Monday. Although there is a possibility of thunderstorms this weekend, these storms will be very scattered and will not be severe. The unseasonably low temperatures will remain in place, but will slowly rise as the humidity increases over our area. The chance for rain this weekend will be around 40% with the temperatures around the low 80s.


Forecast:

Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 11am and 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming northeast 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday: A 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind.
Monday: A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 83.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with a high near 85.

Forecaster: John Logan Thomas

Rain Comes to an End

This morning Warren County received nearly half an inch of rain adding to a total of 4.19 inches for the month of August, according to the Kentucky Mesonet. When compared to August of the past, this year has been very wet. Warren County has already collected more rain this year than the past two years combined. The chance for rain will begin to diminish as the week moves on. There will be a few scattered storms that will move into the area tonight and into tomorrow as a cold front passes through. The low pressure system will move through the area by Tuesday night leaving the end of the week clear and warm with highs in the low 80s.  Beginning on Wednesday a high pressure system will move into the area and remain draped over the central Unites States into the weekend. This will allow for a dry week ahead making it feel more like a normal August for South Central Kentucky.

Daily Forecast

Tuesday: High of 84. Low of 58. 30% chance of rain throughout the day. Wind out of the NW at 10mph.

Wednesday: High of 79. Low of 55. 10% chance of rain in the morning. Wind out of the NE at 10 mph.

Thursday: High of 78. Low of 59. 0% chance of rain. Wind out of the NNE at 8 mph.

Friday:  High of 80. Low of 64. 0% chance of rain. Wind out of the NNE at 7 mph. Partly cloudy.

Forecaster: John Logan Thomas

Stormy Rest of the Week

Discussion 

An active pattern on tap for the second half of this week. A front will march closer to us for the next day, which will increase our chances for precipitation tomorrow. Cloud cover will keep temperatures into the low to mid 80s as this front approaches. Friday will be marked with an even better chance of precipitation as sufficent moisture enters Kentucky. Heavy rain looks to be likely with amounts up to an inch and a half from Thursday through Saturday. Current thinking suggests rain will be pushing out Saturday afternoon as the cold front drapes through Kentucky.

HPC Forecast for precipitation from Thursday through Saturday. Current thinking is they are overdoing the amounts. An inch and a half is safe to say. 

Overview

Thursday:  High 83  Low 75 Fog cannot be ruled out for the commute tomorrow morning. Scattered rain and a thunderstorm could pop up early morning into late afternoon.  Mostly cloudy skies. Chance of precip 50%

Friday:  High 85 Low 75 Better chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Precipitation will become more widespread in the afternoon hours.  Mostly cloudy skies. Chance of precip 60%

Saturday:  High 83 Low 68  The cold front will be making its way through Saturday afternoon with precipitation dissipating throughout the afternoon into the evening. Clouds clearing into the evening. Chance of precip 60%

Forecaster: Brian Urbancic

Normal Weekend Ahead

Discussion

Over the weekend, temperatures will unfortunately be returning to just under normal temperatures as an area of high pressure moves over our area this afternoon.  With this area of high pressure moving into our area during the day today, winds will remain out of the south to southwest bringing in warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico.  This increase in moist air will cause the humidity and heat index to rise.  We will be expecting the temperatures to remain in the upper 80s with the heat index making it feel like the mid 90s.  The increase in moisture in the atmosphere also allows for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop on Saturday and Sunday.

Satellite Imagery map with fronts overlaid.  Valid for today at 21z.

Overview

Friday: High: 87 Low: 66 Patchy fog in the morning will clear up to mostly sunny skies by the afternoon.  Winds will be out of the south around 5 mph.  No precipitation is expected.

Saturday: High: 87 Low: 70 Mostly cloudy skies with a chance of a scattered shower or thunderstorm by early afternoon.  Winds will be coming out of the southwest between 5 and 10 mph.  Chance of rain: 40%

Sunday: High: 84 Low: 64 Partly cloudy with a chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm by early afternoon.  Winds shifting to coming out of the north between 5 and 10 mph.  Chance of rain: 30%

Forecaster: Will Paschall