A beautiful game day in store followed by a rainy Sunday

Gameday Forecast

Overnight: Clear and calm with a low in the mid 50s. 

Friday: A chance of fog in the morning will turn into a nice sunny day with a high of around 82. Winds out of the easy will pick up to 5-8 mph through the day.  A few clouds will roll in by night as the low drops to around 58.

Saturday: A beautiful day for the Western vs. Navy game as mostly sunny skies will persist over the course of the day allowing temperature to climb to the mid 80s.  A light wind from the east will die down overnight with the temperature dropping down to around 60.

Sunday: Sunday is not looking to be quite as nice as cloudy skies will consume the day along with a 60% chance of rain.  Some areas may receive up to a quarter of an inch of rain, although most areas should only receive a tenth of an inch.  A high in the low 70s with a low of around 60.

Discussion: The nice Friday and first half of the weekend will be a result of an area of high pressure parked over us.  This ridge of high pressure will stick around through Saturday until a cold front forces the ridge off to the east by Sunday morning.  The timing of this front and the associated precipitation appears to be morning to afternoon hours.  Although some thunderstorms will be possible along the front, nothing severe is expected at this time. And most importantly… GO TOPS!!  

Forecaster: Michael Flanigan

Rain chances moving back in for Tuesday and Wednesday

Forecast:

Overnight: Another cool night as the temperatures will drop down to 52. Mostly clear skies with a light northeast wind.

Tuesday:  A mostly sunny morning will give way to increasing clouds and a 20% chance of rain at 2pm.  The chance of rain showers will increase to 50% by tomorrow evening.  The high will be 78 with 5-8mph winds out of the southeast.  A 50% chance of showers will persist overnight into Wednesday with a low of 60.  Rain totals will be a tenth of an inch with some areas receiving more.

Wednesday: A 50% chance of rain showers will remain in the forecast.  A few early afternoon thunderstorms will be possible with these showers.  Showers and storms will exit our area by evening giving way to partly cloudy skies with a high possibly reaching 80. Light northwest winds will die down overnight with a low of 57.  On Wednesday another tenth of an inch of rain can be expected; however, areas hit by any thunderstorms could receive up to a quarter of an inch.

Thursday:  Clouds will rapidly decrease throughout the morning hours giving way to a calm, sunny day with a high of 80.  Clear and calm conditions will continue overnight with a low around 58.

Discussion:

A rainy Tuesday and Wednesday could be in store for us thanks to an approaching trough from the west.  A current lack of moisture in our atmosphere will hold off any early precipitation chances Tuesday.  This lack of moisture will change with the development of a southern 850mb flow Tuesday that will transfer moist Gulf air into our region.   This moist air advection coupled with lift caused by a region of upper level divergence over our region, will result in the majority of the precipitation we will see Tuesday afternoon.  As this low level flow strengthens over Tuesday as both the GFS & NAM show, our precipitation chances will continue to increase as more moisture/fuel is being added to the atmosphere.  Even after the trough axis passes through Bowling Green early Wednesday, a surface low couple with a vortmax will linger over our region producing precipitation until they move off to our east Wednesday afternoon.  By Thursday a ridge will set up over the Midwest providing us with clear conditions. 

Forecaster: Michael Flanigan

Rainy Weekend

Forecast:
Thursday afternoon and night- There is a 20% possibility of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms for the area this afternoon. A high near 85 and winds out of the southwest at 7mph.

Friday- Thunderstorms are very possible starting around noon as a cold front begins to move through south central Kentucky. There is a 40% chance of stronger storms. The high will be 83 with winds 6-10 mph out of the southwest. Around night fall the chance for storms goes up to 80% with rain fall totals between a quarter and half an inch.

Saturday- A 40% chance of storms remains in the area with a high around 76 for the day. Mostly cloudy with a light wind out of the north.


Discussion:
Tonight holds the a small chance of precipitation, but it will be mainly north and east of Warren County. Tonight will be partly cloudy with a low around 65. The main focus is on Friday. The SPC(Storm Prediction Center) has posted a slight risk that dips down into Louisville, KY. We should not see the same strong storms that they will, but we will have the chance for some strong weather. A cold front will be passing through Kentucky tomorrow beginning around lunch time bringing us a chance for storms. The National Weather Service in Louisville has said that any damage from the storms will be from strong winds and a few strong storms. We should expect to see small amounts of rain mostly west of the I-65 corridor. Rainfall totals adding up to about a half an inch at the most. The cold front will cool temperatures down for us, but not by much. The high for Saturday is 76 with partly cloudy skies. There is still a 40% chance of showers and storms on Saturday until around 1pm as the cold front pushes out of our area. This will bring in a high pressure ridge behind it clearing up the skies for the next several days.

Forecaster: John Logan Thomas

Fall is Still in the Air.

Discussion:

                A cold front is positioned from Michigan down to central Missouri. This should move into the Warren County region by early afternoon(Monday) with a slight chance for rain. With a weakening jet streak fueling most of this cold front, it will not be nearly as strong by the time it reaches us Monday afternoon. As it approaches Kentucky, the chance of rain drops down to around 20%. If we get any rain, it will be light showers around 4 pm and into Monday night. Temperatures will be chilly in the AM hours due to cloud cover over the area from the cold front moving this way. Clouds will cover us most of the day keeping the temperatures from reaching much higher than 80 degrees for a high. That cool air we felt at the end of last week will remain in place at night and in the mornings, but mid day temperatures will be warm enough to keep fall just out of our reach. 

                                      Cold front draped across Tennessee will bring mild

                                      chances for rain/storms through Monday night. 

Forecast:

                Monday: An overnight low of around 60 degrees and daytime cloud cover will keep the high temperature for tomorrow around 80 degrees. The chance of rain all day will be about 20% even when the cold front moves through in the early afternoon.

                Tuesday: Following the same pattern as Monday, the high will be around 80 degrees with partly cloudy skies. There is a 20% chance of showers and storms in the late afternoon and early evening with lows falling into the mid 60s.

                Wednesday: Temperatures reach a little higher to the mid 80s on Wednesday with a slightly higher 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms all day. It will be partly to mostly cloudy with the low that night reaching 60 degrees.  

Forecaster: John Logan Thomas

Welcome Home Fall

Days at a Glance:
Thursday: Begin the day at 66 degrees with clouds building throughout the morning before scattered to widespread rain showers enter the area by early to mid-afternoon. Accumulations of .10 - .20 of an inch are anticipated area-wide with higher values locally possible. Clouds will stick around throughout the day and clear into the overnight hours. Temperatures will reach 87 before dropping into the afternoon. Winds will be light around 5-6 mph switching from SSW to NW by mid-afternoon.

Friday: Sunrise will be 59 degrees with patchy fog clearing off fairly quickly after daybreak. Sunshine will dominate with fall-like air and temperatures reaching 78. North winds will be persistent and strongest in the afternoon at 12-17 mph before slacking overnight.

Saturday: Beginning the day at a chilly 45 degrees. Sunshine and fall-like air will once again dominate with temperatures reaching 70. Winds will be persistent from the NE at 10-12 mph.

Sunday: Another chilly start at 49 degrees. A sunny morning will give way to clouds into the afternoon hours that will persist into the evening. Isolated light showers are expected if any precipitation at all. At best, accumulations will be a trace - .05 for the area. Temperatures will reach 79 with slight mugginess returning. Winds will be from the south at 5-6 mph before becoming variable by the evening.

Discussion:
The storms were as advertised this afternoon being isolated in nature, but Bowling Green took a direct hit by a strong storm in particular. Frequent lightning, minor flooding on roadways due to heavy rain, and brief gusty winds were the major outcomes. The Bowling Green Regional Airport recorded 1.86 inches of rain with 1.59 of that falling within one hour or less. The WKU Farm Mesonet station only recorded .67 inches, which speaks to the localized nature of precipitation associated with "pop-up" or ordinary cell thunderstorms. Both stations recorded 20 mph gusts.

An improvised waterfall down a flight of stairs in front of the Industrial Education Building (IEB) on WKU's Campus. Picture courtesy of STN Board Member, Will Paschall, from inside IEB. This was during the peak of today's heavy rainfall.

If you are tired of this uncomfortable, sticky heat, then you are in for a treat. The cold front mentioned in Sunday's forecast is projected to pass the area tomorrow afternoon. Scattered to widespread showers will bring .10-.20 of an inch of area-wide rainfall with locally higher amounts possible due to embedded thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected, with localized lightning and heavy rain the major threats.

NAM 21Z (4PM CDT) Composite Reflectivity for Thursday roughly indicating the rainfall associated with the cold front (thin horizontal green band spanning the KY/TN border) to be through our area.

Clouds will stick around and dissipate overnight. While relief will not be immediately felt, cooler and much drier air will begin to rush into the area overnight Thursday and all day Friday. It's time to dust off your jackets because Friday and Saturday night will be rather chilly in the mid to upper 40's by daybreak on Saturday and Sunday respectively. Sunshine will dominate Friday and Saturday with temperatures in the high to low 70's respectively, but clouds will build into the area once again Sunday afternoon with little to no rain anticipated. This is associated with a very weak and dissipating cold front.

Get out and enjoy the comfortable, beautiful weather in store this weekend as fall makes a pleasant surprise!

Forecaster: Austin Boys

Mugginess to Continue Through Midweek

Days at a Glance:
Tonight: Showers and lingering clouds will dissipate into the evening and overnight hours with winds from the SE at 5-6 mph. Only trace accumulations are expected.

Monday: Begin the day with a low of 68. Skies will continue to clear into the morning and afternoon with southerly winds at 5-6 mph. It will be rather steamy with a high of 92. Popup showers due to increasing instability are 10% likely into the latter half of the afternoon with likelihood decreasing by nightfall. Associated showers will be relatively brief and localized with accumulations under .10 of an inch. 

Tuesday: Start the day with a low of 70. Clear skies will dominate throughout the day with SSW winds at 11-12 mph. More of the same sticky heat with a high of 93. There is a 20% chance of popup showers likely in the later afternoon hours until nightfall. Associate showers will be relatively brief and localized in nature with accumulations under .15 of an inch.

Wednesday: Begin with a low of 71. Clouds will begin to increase throughout the day, especially into the afternoon hours. Winds will be SW at 5-7 mph with temperatures reaching 92. A 25% chance of popup showers remains as with Monday and Tuesday, but the chance for widespread showers will also increase into the evening and overnight hours. 

Discussion:
Increasing clouds since this morning has produced overcast conditions and disrupted our streak of sunny days. Only a marginal chance of precipitation accumulation will persist into the evening and overnight hours as clouds begin to dissipate. The sun will reemerge tomorrow as will this sticky heat that will persist into the middle of the work week. Temperatures will reach the low to mid 90's Monday through Wednesday with dew points in the upper 60's. This will make for a unpleasant couple of days, but do enjoy the sunshine. If outside, remember to drink plenty of fluids, especially if performing strenuous activities.

But transition is in the air as a cold front will begin to slide through our area overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Models are having difficulty agreeing to the exact timing, strength, and expected rainfall accumulation of this cold front. A better picture can be made closer to Wednesday but the setup is not looking overly impressive.

GFS 12Z (7am CDT) Thursday showing wind vectors and surface mixing ratio (i.e. amount of atmospheric moisture). Notice the bold black arrows pointing SE across the Great Lakes region. This symbolizes the leading edge of cooler, and much drier air that will filter into our area into the final days of the work week and weekend behind the cold front.

Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms is possible with severe weather not expected. What can be assumed is a nice relief from the humidity into the final days of the work week and weekend.

Next Forecast: Wednesday
Forecaster: Austin Boys

Temperatures on the Rise

It has been a wet August for most of Kentucky, which is quite the contrast to this time last year. Here's a look at the monthly rainfall across the state.

Anywhere from 10 to 15 inches of rain fell around the Bowling Green area this month. Currently, no counties are experiencing any drought.

This time last year much of the western half of the state was under a severe drought or worse and everyone except far eastern Kentucky was in some sort of drought.

Overall, this summer will finish much wetter and cooler than last summer. But will this pattern stick with us and bring us a cold and snowy winter?
The Climate Prediction Center doesn't seem to think so. They are forecasting a higher chance of above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation for the Ohio Valley.

But, the Farmer's Almanac is a different story! They are forecasting a biting cold and snowy winter for southern Kentucky extending up through the Great Lakes. After a winter like the 2012-2013 season, I'm sure most people wouldn't mind seeing a little more snowfall.

Today:

It was a gorgeous day across southern Kentucky as there were few clouds and the temperatures struggled to make it out of the low 80s. Bowling Green is currently hovering around it's high temperature for the day at 81 degrees.

Tonight:

We will dip into the upper 50s tonight with clear skies. Make sure you grab your jacket in the morning if your leaving for work early or heading out to class.

Tomorrow: Expect a high temperature of 84 degrees with sunny skies

Tomorrow night: Another cold front will work it's way into the region tomorrow night, but don't expect much in the way of rain as only a few scattered showers are expected, mainly north of the area. So if you have any outdoor plans, don't be too worried. Temperatures won't be affected by this system much at all as temps will only drop into the low 60s Thursday night and Friday looks to continue the warming trend.

Overall, a nice weekend is taking shape. It will be a little on the warm side, but rain chances will remain low.

Weekend Outlook:

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 85. East wind 3 to 5 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 63.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 87.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 66.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 89.



Here's the forecast for all you folks heading down to Knoxville, Tennessee for the WKU vs. Tennessee football game. (Kickoff is at 11:21 am central time)

Kickoff: 74 degrees and sunny

End of Game: 86 degrees and sunny


Forecaster: Tyler Smith

Cooler Days Ahead

Much of Kentucky saw torrential rain over the weekend which led to flooding across parts of the Bluegrass. An impulse of energy swept through the region Saturday evening into the overnight hours bringing isolated severe weather. Gusty winds led to down trees and a few power outages near Louisville and flash flooding resulted from a shield of rain with embedded, heavy rain producing thunderstorms moving slowly across central Kentucky. Once the westward moving outflow boundary interacted with the line of storms coming from the northwest, the rain began to move south more rapidly. The storms started to dissipate before reaching the Bowling Green area around 2 am.The rain cleared out early Sunday morning allowing the heat and humidity to filter back into the area.
A 30% rain chance will linger throughout Labor Day as a small disturbance pushes south and east out of southern Illinois, but as we head into the late evening hours, the rain chances will begin to diminish. Expect partly cloudy skies with a high near 86 degrees. A cold front will sweep through the region tonight, helping temperature to dip into the low to mid 60s and providing much more comfortable conditions for the following days. We will struggle to make it into the 80s tomorrow as a we look to end up around 80 degrees late afternoon. You will need a jacket if you plan on being out and about tomorrow night as the low temperature will be in the mid to upper 50s.

Weekly outlook:

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 81.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 60.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 62.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 63.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 87.

Forecaster: Tyler Smith