Returning Back to Normal

Days at a Glance:

Friday: High: 67 Low: 44 Skies will start partly cloudy and then clear up by the end of the day.  Winds will be coming out of the west between 6-14 mph with gusts up to 22 mph.

Saturday: High: 57 Low: 35 Clouds will roll back in for the day as a weak cold front swings down from the north.  Winds will be coming out of the NW between 6-16 mph.

Sunday: High: 55 Low: 38 Sunny skies with winds coming out of the NE around 4 mph.

Current temperature lines for 00z on November 1st.

Discussion: Now that the cold front responsible for the severe weather threat on Halloween has passed, we can expect nothing but cooler temperatures and clearer skies.  We will experience the typical fall weather known to Bowling Green, KY.  Another cold front will be coming out of the North on Saturday, bringing with it another small chance of rain.  Once that passes, we can expect clear skies for the rest of the weekend.

Halloween Briefing and a Look at What is to Come

As of 5:00 pm, we have decided to bring back in our spotters that we sent out to check on the severe weather threat for Bowling Green.  The spotters took anemometers out into the field to measure the wind so that they could report any wind gusts that qualify for severe winds.  The first photo is from Hadley Fire Department looking to the SSE.  The second photo is of Lead Spotter Ryan Difani and spotter Jordan Bailey as they try to measure the wind with the anemometers.

Now for a quick briefing about why the severe weather did not happen when it was forecasted.  The original forecast called for severe weather to be over our area around 3:00 pm, but as we all know, that did not happen.  The reason for that was that the severe weather we anticipated with the first line of showers that came through during the predicted time completely diminished.  It diminished due to the fact that there was no energy available due to the cloud cover and lack of instability.

Do not let your guard down though.  The main threat for severe weather is still on its way with the cold front that is expected to reach our area between 8:00 pm to 10:00 pm.  We still have a threat for strong to severe winds and a very slight chance of an isolated tornado on the leading edge of the cold front.  

Halloween Severe Weather Threat

Stormtopper Network has officially been upgraded to an Alert status.  This is all due to the severe weather threat for tomorrow (10/31) afternoon and evening.  The Storm Prediction Center has put Bowling Green, KY and surrounding areas in a 30% chance of having severe weather tomorrow. 

From the latest model runs, we are anticipating these storms to be firing up after 3:00 pm and to continue till about midnight.  Due to the fact that these storms have the capability to continue to the late evening hours, we strongly advise you to have a NOAA weather radio nearby in the case of late evening warnings.  Since tomorrow is Halloween, it is highly advised to reconsider any outdoor activities as these storms have the chance of producing severe winds as well as a possible isolated tornado.  Even if no severe weather materializes, these storms will produce heavy rain.  The National Weather Service, Warren County Emergency Management, and Stormtopper Network strongly advises anyone and everyone to tune in/be listening to their local news stations as well as the National Weather Service offices in Nashville, Paducah, or Louisville for any watches/warnings.

Welcome Back to Fall...

Daily Forecasts:

Monday: High: 66 Low: 50  Skies will remain mostly cloudy throughout the day with a slight chance of some showers up till 1pm or so.  Winds will be relatively calm.  Chance of rain will be only 20%.

Tuesday: High: 70 Low: 58 Skies will continue to remain mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower in the morning changing to a higher chance of a shower or thunderstorm after 1:00 pm or so.  Winds will change from a calm wind in the morning to around a south wind between 5-8 mph. Chance of rain increases to 40% as you go throughout the day on Tuesday.  We can expect less than an inch of rain to fall.

Wednesday: High: 74 Low: 60 Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with the sun poking through every once in a while with a small chance of a shower throughout the day.  Winds will speed up to about 10 mph during the day and slow down to about 6 mph during the evening and overnight hours.  Chance of rain will be 20%.

Thursday (Halloween Night): High: 70 Low: 54 Skies will be cloudy throughout the day with higher chances of showers and thunderstorms than they were on Tuesday.  Winds will pick up to a south wind between 10-14 mph.  Chance of rain will be 60%.  We can expect more rain than on Tuesday.

Precipitable Water, aka most likely where rain is falling, for Thursday around 1:00 pm

Discussion:

Now that we have officially thawed out from the winter tease we had at the end of last week, we can now officially say hi to the typical Bowling Green fall weather.  Monday and Wednesday will be good days for any outdoor activity, except sunbathing, as we are going to have pleasant conditions with a chance of a stray shower or two.  We can expect a higher chance of seeing rain on Tuesday as a shortwave passes by bringing with it warmer temperatures and a chance for more showers and thunderstorms.  The main event of the week though will not happen until Thursday, which ironically is Halloween night.  It is still too early to tell whether or not this system will still have enough strength to produce severe weather in our area, but we can still expect that we will have a soggy and windy Halloween, so be sure that all of your outdoor decorations are securely fixed to the ground or risk them being blown away.  This system will be monitored as the week goes on and updates will be issued if necessary. 

Forecaster: Will Paschall

End of the Week Get Off to a Cold Start... First Freeze of the Season!

Daily Forecasts:

Friday: A cold start after a morning low near 25. Skies will be sunny but it will be a cool day with a high near 49. Light northwest winds up to 8 mph.

Friday Night: Cold, clear with nearly calm winds and a low around 27.

Saturday: Sunny to start the day with increasing clouds though the afternoon becoming mostly cloudy by evening. Warmer with a high near 62. Southwest winds from 5-15 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly to partly cloudy skies with some clearing by morning. Low around 39. West winds up to 8 mph.

Sunday: Sunshine with a high near 60. West to northwest winds from 5-10 mph.

Sunday Night: Clear skies with clouds increasing by morning however. Low near 39.

Monday: Partly cloudy skies and becoming warmer with a high in the mid to upper 60s.

Forecast Discussion:

Somebody turn up the heat because its cold outside! The coldest air so far this season has arrived to south-central Kentucky after three pushes of cold air have moved in this past week. The cold air along with a weak disturbance moving over the Ohio Valley allowed some locations across northern Kentucky to see some sleet and snow Thursday morning. There will be no snow here in south-central Kentucky but the ground may be solid white by Friday morning. With an upper-level trough and a surface high pressure in place, creating a couple of calm clear nights, you can bet that the temperature is going to drop. A Freeze Warning has been posted for the entire state of Kentucky for Thursday night as temperatures plummet to the mid 20s. Be sure to grab the jacket or maybe even the coat before heading out the door Friday morning.

A surface high pressure system will create calm winds and clear skies allowing for a cold night with temperatures dropping to the mid 20s. RUC forecast temperatures for 7 am Friday morning.

Temperatures will not warm much Friday despite sunny skies; the high will be around 50. Temperatures will again drop into the upper 20s Friday night/Saturday morning under clear skies. By Saturday winds will switch from the southwest ahead of a very weak disturbance. The southwest winds and sunny skies will allow temperatures to moderate into the low 60s. The weak disturbance will bring a few clouds to the sky by Saturday evening but they should clear by Sunday morning and thus a sunny Sunday with a high near 60 is expected. This is the result of another surface high pressure system moving in behind the weak disturbance.

Looking longer range and into early next week, a warm front should start the week off right allow temperatures to warm to the mid to upper 60s by Monday. Data suggests that 70s will return by Tuesday. The next major storm system is expected around during the midweek time frame.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

Nice Monday... Temperatures Cooling Thereafter

Daily Forecasts:

Monday: Mostly sunny to start the day though clouds will increase after 3 pm, becoming cloudy by 7 pm. Highs will warm to near 68. Southwesterly winds at 5-12 mph.

Monday Night: Cloudy skies with a 60% chance of showers primarily after midnight. Showers will remain light with rainfall totals less than 0.10”. Low around 44. Light winds from the northwest.

Tuesday: Clouds will clear early becoming mostly sunny during midday. High near 61. Clouds will again increase by the evening. 5-12 mph winds turning back from the southwest.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy skies with a low near 39 with westerly winds at 4-10 mph.

Wednesday: Clouds will clear early for a mostly sunny day but cool with a high only around 52. Northwesterly winds from 5-10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Low near 37 with increasing clouds.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy to start the day with skies becoming mostly sunny by the afternoon. High in the low to mid 50s.

Forecast Discussion:

After a rainy start to the weekend on Saturday morning, weather conditions certainly cleared up for a gorgeous Sunday. The day got off to the chilliest start of the fall season thus far though. The low was 34 at the BGWC Regional Airport while the low dropped to the freezing mark at the Warren County mesonet site just outside of BG. The wall-to-wall sunshine helped to warm us into the low 60s by this afternoon, however that is several degrees below our average high for the date of 70. With such cool temperatures there were some areas of frost along with areas of fog to start Sunday.

Our cool weather is thanks to a cold front which passed through Saturday and also an upper-level trough located over the upper-Midwest which has setup a fairly zonal flow over the Ohio Valley. Associated with this trough is the next weather system poised to impact Kentucky. There is an associated low pressure system which is currently over the Great Lakes and a cold front extends from the system through Illinois and into Texas. Ahead of the system southerly winds and mostly sunny skies will allow for temperatures to rise into the upper 60s. It should be a phenomenal fall Monday but clouds will begin to increase into the afternoon hours, with cloudy skies likely by sunset thanks to the approaching system. The low pressure system itself will pass well to our north but the cold front will slide through the Commonwealth on Monday night. The frontal passage marks the first of several weak fronts to pass through this week which will usher in much cooler air. There is a slight chance of a few showers with the front, though any showers will likely be in the early morning hours Tuesday morning and thus go unnoticed by most. Rainfall will very light totaling no more than a tenth of an inch.

This NAM model forecast indicates light rain along the cold front valid for 4 am on Tuesday. Behind the front cooler air will move in, and after another system moves by on Tuesday night, more cool air will spill in for mid-week.

 

 

 Clouds will move out temporarily on the day Tuesday though yet another weaker system will approach by Tuesday evening bringing with it more cloudiness. Due to the very dry air which will already be in place, showers are unlikely with this system. However cool air will come crashing in. By Wednesday, mostly sunny skies will dominate but temperatures will struggle to climb. After starting out Wednesday morning near 40 highs will only reach the low 50s. Yet another weak disturbance will move toward the Ohio Valley by Wednesday night/Thursday morning and depending on its exact timing (which the models currently disagree on) will determine just how chilly it is to start Thursday. Either way it will likely be in the 30s. This very weak disturbance will again bring in more cool air in for the end of the week and it looks quite likely that our first real freeze of the season will occur Friday morning as temperatures are expected to drop to near 30. Cool below average temperatures are expected to continue right into next week as you can see predicted by the Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day temperature outlook. They are giving at least a 70% chance of below average temperatures through next Wednesday.

 

At least a 70% probability of below average temperatures is predicted by the Climate Prediction Center for this weekend into early next week. Thus cool temperatures are here to stay for a while.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

A Brief Warm-Up After the Rain

The rain and overcast skies finally cleared the Bowling Green area around noon today. The cold front responsible for these conditions was nearly stationary as it passed over us last night, but it briefly surged ahead this afternoon, only to stall over the Appalachians. Fortunately, this front is no longer a bother to us, and we will see continued clearing as the evening goes on. High pressure will slide in from the southwest as a response to this retreating frontal system. With plenty of low-level moisture in place thanks to the rain, this high will keep the moisture pinned to the ground. As a result, fog is expected, dense at times, tonight into early tomorrow morning. Use caution if you are driving during these hours.

Skies tomorrow should be virtually cloud-free as the ridge of high pressure parks itself over eastern Kentucky. This ridge may drift northward enough to allow warmth from the Gulf states to creep our way. Consequently, high temperatures tomorrow will have a shot at cracking 70°. This "warmth" will not stick around, though, as a weak cold front is expected to move through south-central Kentucky early Saturday morning. Temperatures will dip slightly, and a few showers will be possible, although the models indicate that the best chance for rain will be along and north of the Ohio River. Cloud coverage will increase as well, although the sun should return in time for Sunday.

Temperatures valid at 4 PM on Friday as modeled by the NAM

Forecast:

Friday: High of 68°. Dense fog is likely in the early morning hours, and may last until 9 AM. Abundant sunshine, though clouds will increase late Friday night. Winds from the southwest at 5 mph.
Saturday: Morning low of 46°. A 30% chance of rain before noon; no significant rain accumulation is expected. Mostly cloudy skies with a high of 61°. West winds at 5-10 mph.
Sunday: Morning low of 39°. Sunshine returns with a southwest wind at 5-10 mph. High near 65°.

Forecaster: Caleb Chevalier

Rain Chances in Store

High temperatures continue to be above average for this time of year across south-central Kentucky. This is partly due to the amount of sunshine we have received over the past few days, but can be more directly attributed to a ridge of high pressure dominating the Great Lakes region. As a result, cooler air from the north is having a difficult time mixing into our area. Sunshine was not as plentiful today thanks to high clouds moving in from the south and west. The clouds are in advance of a gently-sloping warm front aligned over the Dixie Belt. Clouds will increase in coverage as this warm front approaches.

By tomorrow afternoon, the warm front will have lifted to the north, and cloud coverage will remain dense as a cold front moves in from the west. This front will be draped from north to south as a mid-latitude cyclone spins over Minnesota and Iowa. The NAM indicates that Bowling Green will see a frontal passage right around sundown, while the GFS is slower by a few hours. Nevertheless, it appears rain is very likely on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Showers will be in a mostly scattered fashion during the day, with perhaps a thunderstorm or two, with a more linear mode of rain arriving with the cold front passage. Unfortunately, this does not fare well for football weather. It appears the Hilltoppers will have to dodge some rain as they face Louisiana-Lafayette at home.

NAM hi-res composite reflectivity valid at 4 PM on Tuesday

Forecast:

Tuesday: High of 76°. Expect mostly cloudy skies with a 40% chance of rain in the early afternoon hours, increasing to 80% by sunset. Winds will be out of the south at 10 mph.
Wednesday: Morning low of 61°. Rain tapering off during the day, giving way to partly cloudy skies. High around 65°. West winds at 5-10 mph.
Thursday: Morning low of 44°. Look for partly sunny skies with a very slight chance of rain (20%). High temperature around 61°. Winds will be from the west at 4-7 mph.

Forecaster: Caleb Chevalier

A Perfect End to the Week

You couldn't ask for a more beautiful end to the week! High temperatures heading into our weekend will hover in the mid to upper 70s with no rain in sight. Morning lows will continue to be a bit chilly, but not as low as what we saw the past two mornings with lows dipping into the mid 40s. A large area of high pressure is sitting just to our southwest and will continue to give us sunny skies through the early weekend.

 A small disturbance will push through the area Saturday night, but not much in the way of rainfall is expected due to the dry atmosphere. A 20% chance of thunderstorms will come into play on your Sunday, but don't cancel any outdoor plans just yet as most people will see a good deal of sunshine and dry conditions. A more substantial chance for rain will arrive early next week ahead of a cold front which looks to push through during the day on Wednesday.

Short Term Outlook:

Temperatures will gradually cool down overnight and reach a low of 50 degrees by early tomorrow morning. WKU students will need that jacket for early morning classes. An absolutely perfect day is shaping up for your Thursday. The high temperature will be 75 degrees with mostly sunny skies and a light breeze at 5 mph. Tomorrow night will once again be on the chilly side with lows dropping into the low 50s.

Extended Forecast:

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 78. Light east wind.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 77.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 78.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.

Columbus Day: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 71.

Fall is in the Air!

Heavy rain swept through the area this morning ahead of a cold front which is currently tracking through the region. Bowling Green picked up just over a half inch of rain last night through this morning with higher totals to the north and west. Flooding occurred in some of our far northern counties where torrential rain tracked over the same areas last night and early this morning. Over 6.5 inches of rain fell across Louisville within the past 24 hours. A few counties in far western Kentucky even saw a tornado warning issued with the round of storms that moved through yesterday evening. No damage has been reported with any of those storms.

The threat for severe weather will remain to the east of our area ahead of the cold front, but we will see only a few lingering showers for the rest of our Sunday. Clouds will persist through the evening.

The rain chances will continue to diminish as we head into the evening hours with clearing overnight.

After a warm start to October, a more seasonable pattern will begin to set in this week. Temperatures will find themselves on the chilly side as we head into our Monday morning. You won’t need that winter coat quite yet, but a jacket will be handy tomorrow, especially if your heading out before 10am. The sun will be out again tomorrow, but temperatures will only reach the mid 60s. Temperatures will again dip into the mid 40s for Tuesday morning and will climb to around 70 degrees by mid afternoon. Temperatures will remain fairly seasonable for the rest of the week with minimal chances for rain over the next five days.

It’s Fall and that means the leaves are changing! Here is a map from The Weather channel breaking down the time of peak foliage for the area. Bowling Green’s foliage peaks around late October.

So what causes the leaves to change color? Plants use glucose as a building block for growing. The plant turns water and carbon dioxide into oxygen and sugar through a process called photosynthesis which means (putting together with light). The chemical called chlorophyll is what gives the plants their green color. During the winter there is not enough daylight or water for photosynthesis. This means the trees must rest and live off the food stored up during the summer. They begin to shut down the food making process, which results in the disappearing of the chlorophyll. As the green color fades, we begin to see the yellow and orange colors (which have been in the leaves all along). The reason we can’t see these colors in the summer is because they are covered up by the vast amounts of green color.

Weekly outlook:

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. Northwest wind 3 to 8 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 45. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 69. Calm wind becoming northeast around 6 mph in the morning.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 74.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 75.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 52.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

Update on Weekend Forecast and Storm Chances.

We are keeping a close eye on an strong October mid-latititude cyclone that has been brewing in model forecasts for a few weeks now. This system is currently located over Nebraska bringing several inches of snow to Wyoming, and South Dakota. This system looks to arrive for us in central Kentucky late Saturday night into early Sunday morning brining a multi-cellular broken squall line across the eastern United States. The main threats appear to be damaging winds and an isolated hail chance. With the continued model consensus that the surface low will move to our north over the Great Lakes region, we can expected a much more dampened severe storm concern as the best ingredients will remain to the north along the warm front/surface low region. This does not rule out all chances for some storms to reach severe limits as instability looks to be more favorable than earlier this week with a strong cold front for ample forcing.

NAM forecast composite reflectivity (Left) and GFS  MSLP and precipitation (Left) comparison valid for 06 z (1 am CDT)  Sunday. 

The NAM and GFS models agree fairly well on timing for this system entering around 1 am. They are also in good agreement about the mode being linear with the most intense sections of the line being to our north where better ingredients will be in play. The strong cold frontal boundary will pass through around lunchtime Sunday after the rain and storms move through brining a drop in temperature and a more October feel to the first part of next week.

NAM surface temperatures valid for 18z (1 pm) for Sunday showing sharp temperature gradient associated with cold frontal boundary.

Stormtopper Network will keep you informed with up to the minute updates as storms move into Kentucky on  our Facebook page (Warren County WX) and Twitter account (@WarrenCountyWX).



Saturday: High, 82. Chance of precipitation increasing into the day. Some locally-strong storms possible.

Saturday Night: Low, 62. Chance of precipitation increasing into the night with a cool off after frontal passage.

Sunday: High, 68. Storms strong to severe in morning. Largest threat damaging winds and small hail.
Rain chances decreasing after front passes around lunchtime/early afternoon. 

Sunday Night: Low, 45. Cooling off with the passage of the front. Cloudy with lingering rain showers into the early morning Monday. 

Forecaster: Emily Thornton
Next Update: Sunday October 6th.

An End of the Week Shift to more Seasonal Temperatures for October

It has been a warm start to October with highs reaching into the 80's for the first day of the month. According to a monthly summary from the Kentucky Mesonet for October 2012, the high temperature for October 1, 2012 was 66.4 F at the station located at the Western Kentucky agricultural farm. The following week, however, showed a climb back into the upper 70's before a drop back into the 60's with lows in the mid 30's. This shows that though we are unseasonably warm, we are not far off from the October temperatures of last year.

As of now, a ridge of high pressure is dominating weather over the Commonwealth bringing in the oppressive October heat. A chance for precipitation exists Wednesday as an upper level low becomes a broad low pressure wave and moves over Kentucky. Any showers that develop will likely be in the morning hours and isolated in nature.  A pattern shift will occur  into the weekend when we will see a stronger system move in bringing a trough swinging through the eastern US and bringing the polar jet and cooler drier air behind a significant cold frontal boundary set to march across the eastern United States into Saturday. This cool down will provide us temperatures more favored to the mid-60's with lows in the mid-40's by Sunday after the front passes through.

NAM Surface Temperature and Winds Valid 12 z (7 am CDT) Saturday, October 5th.

With this system, we will also expect some rain/thunderstorm chances Saturday and Sunday as the front approaches. The highest chance for precipitation looks to be Saturday night as the models bring the frontal boundary through western/central Kentucky. With the surface low displaced to our northeast, the severe threat will be significantly higher to the northeast across  Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio and  diminished for us in south-central Kentucky. This will not rule out some locally strong storms with ample moisture and moderate pockets of instability depending on the frontal passage timing and thunderstorm development period. A further update on the severe weather potential will be given on Friday.

GFS Mean Sea Level Pressure and Precipitation valid 12 z (7 am CDT)  for Sunday, October 6th.

Daily Forecasts

Wednesday: High, 80.  Partly cloudy with winds calm to 5 mph. Slight chance for isolated rain/thunderstorms around 30%.

Wednesday Night: Low, 69. Cloudy with light winds. Slight chance of precipitation around 20%.

Thursday: High, 81. Mostly sunny with light winds from 5-10 mph.

Thursday Night: Low, 68. Cloudy with light winds.

Friday: High, 83.  Sunny with few clouds.

Friday Night: Low, 70. Cloudy.

Saturday: High, 82. Chance of precipitation increasing into the day. Some locally strong storms possible.

Saturday Night: Low, 62. Chance of precipitation increasing into the night with a cool off after frontal passage.

Forecaster: Emily Thortnon
Next Update: Friday, October 4th.