Quiet Weather on Tap for Thanksgiving Weekend!

Discussion:

BRR!! It has been a chilly start to Thanksgiving today. With an area of high pressure over our area, the temperature fell to just 15 degrees overnight at the Bowling Green airport. The current temperature at the airport has now warmed up to 21 degrees (8:15) and light winds from the south today will help afternoon temperatures climb to near 40 degrees. High pressure will help our skies remain clear today and into overnight which will allow for another chilly night. Southerly winds will keep us a little warmer than last night, but temperatures will still fall into the lower 20's tonight.

Quiet weather remains on tap for southern Kentucky well into the weekend as a weak ridge positions itself over the southeastern United States. This ridge will allow for southerly winds to keep pumping warmer air into our area, and temperatures will gradually warm each day. Temperatures on Friday will top out in the mid to upper 40s, with clear skies again on tap. Friday night looks chilly as temperatures will dip into the middle 20s before temperatures finally surpass the 50 degree mark on Saturday afternoon. A very weak shortwave will move through the area Saturday, leaving behind a few more clouds than the previous days. Nevertheless, temperatures will reach the lower 50's on Saturday underneath partly cloudy skies. Increasing cloud cover should keep Saturday night's low in the middle 30s and by Sunday, another shortwave disturbance will produce mostly cloudy skies. The high temperature will be right around 50 degrees Sunday, and this shortwave disturbance will have a little bit more moisture to work with and could produce some light rain late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening. Enjoy the quiet weather this Thanksgiving weekend!

Days at a Glance:
Thanksgiving Night: Low - 21 Winds - S 5 mph becoming calm overnight.
Precipitation - 0%  Skies - Clear.

Friday: High - 47 Low - 25 Winds - Light & variable.
Precipitation - 0% Skies - Clear

Saturday: High - 53 Low - 35 Winds - S 5 to 10 mph.
Precipitation - 10% Skies - Partly Cloudy.

Sunday: High - 50  Low - 37 Winds - S 3 to 7 mph.
Precipitation - 20% of light rain late Sunday afternoon or evening. Skies - Mostly cloudy.

Forecaster: Zack Leasor

Wintry Precipitation to Usher in Cold Weather for Thanksgiving!

Discussion:

Temperatures are on the chilly side today, with a current temperature at the Bowling Green airport of 44 degrees. (2:00 P.M.) Aloft, an upper level trough currently positioned over New Mexico and western Texas continues to work its way eastward. Ahead of the trough, light winds from the southwest have ushered in slightly warmer temperatures than yesterday. However, we still remain in a moderately dry air mass with a current dew point of 13 degrees. (2:00 P.M.) At the surface, a weak area of low pressure is currently moving eastward across the Florida panhandle. As this moves east, there will be some phasing as the energy from the southern low will be transferred northward to another area of low pressure moving across the northeast headed toward the Atlantic Ocean. These areas of low pressure will serve as our main trigger for precipitation now through Tuesday night. With cold temperatures, wintry weather can be expected with this storm system! Current radar shows an area of rain and snow to our south and southwest that will slowly work into our area by this evening. Precipitation will be light, but a mixed bag of precipitation is in store for Warren county this evening, as we will most likely see a combination of rain, snow, and sleet. Low temperatures this evening will be right around the freezing mark. This combined with fairly warm ground temperatures will prevent any of the wintry precipitation from accumulating. There could be a quick coating to a half inch of snow on grassy surfaces overnight, but roads should remain just wet. Regardless, take caution driving in the morning, as there could be a few slick spots around town.

National Weather Service doppler radar at 2:26 P.M. CST showing area of light rain and snow making its way towards our area.

Tomorrow, snow and sleet will give way to plain rain by mid morning. Light rain will continue on Tuesday with temperatures rising to around 40 degrees by the afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be around a tenth of an inch during the daytime tomorrow. As the day progresses, a cold front will progress westward closer to our area allowing for temperatures to tumble Tuesday night. This will allow precipitation to briefly change back over to some show showers before precipitation completely ends before midnight Tuesday night. No snow accumulations are expected Tuesday night, but there could be a few slick spots develop on the roads as temperatures plummet behind the cold front. Wednesday looks to be chilly as an area of high pressure over eastern Kentucky and winds from the northwest should keep the daytime high temperature right around freezing. A few isolated snow showers cannot be ruled out Wednesday afternoon, as the northwest winds could pull some moisture from the Great Lakes down into Kentucky. With clear skies, Wednesday night will be cold with low temperatures dropping into the upper teens by daybreak on Thanksgiving. The area of high pressure will keep us dry on Thanksgiving, but high temperatures will only be in the upper 30s. So be sure to bundle up if you plan on traveling during Thanksgiving!

Days at a Glance:

Monday Night: Low - 32 Winds - SW winds around 5 mph becoming calm overnight.
Precipitation - 70% chance of a wintry mix of snow, sleet and rain. A coating up to a half inch of snow is possible on grassy surfaces by morning. Skies - Cloudy.

Tuesday: High - 40 Low - 25 Winds - N wind of 5 mph increasing to near 10 mph by the afternoon.
Precipitation - 80% chance of rain and snow on Tuesday. Snow showers in the morning will give way to rain throughout the day. A brief period of snow showers is possible as the precipitation ends by midnight Tuesday night. Rainfall around a tenth of an inch No snow accumulations are expected. Skies - Cloudy becoming clear overnight.

Wednesday: High - 32 Low - 17 Winds - NW 10 to 15 mph.
Precipitation - 10% of an isolated snow shower during the afternoon. Skies - Mostly clear.

Thanksgiving: High - 38 Low - 24 Winds - Light and variable.
Precipitation - 10% Skies - Mostly clear.

Forecaster: Zack Leasor

Winter Knocking on Door....Again

Days at a Glance:
Thursday: Another mild day starting around 40 degrees and reaching the upper 60's with S-SE winds blowing 8-12 mph. Clouds will be increasing throughout the day with 30% rain showers beginning late around Midnight.

Friday: Very warm start to the day in the low 50's. Temperatures will only rise to the mid 50's under cloudy skies with 90% chance of light to moderate rain showers from Midnight throughout the remainder of the day. Accumulations will range between 1 - 1.50 inches. Winds will shift from the SE to the NW at 8-12 mph Friday evening as cold air begins to spill in the area.

Saturday: Start with a low in the upper 30's with a high in the lower 40's as very cold air rushes into the area all day with 12 - 15 mph NW winds. Wind chill will make it feel colder than it is! Precipitation lingering from Friday should dissipate overnight as clouds will dissipate throughout the day.

Sunday: Very cold start to the day in the lower 20's. High's will be lucky to break the freezing mark reaching the mid 30's at best under sunny skies and 5 mph N winds turning light and variable into the evening.

Discussion:

As was hinted at in the previous forecast, Old Man Winter will make his way back down to our area this weekend with Sunday's high temperature barely reaching the mid-30's. With that said, savor tomorrow's mild temperatures in the upper 60's as clouds increase into the afternoon and evening. This is preceding a cold front that will pass through the area during the day Friday. Light to moderate rain showers are only expected and will persist throughout the entire day from Midnight to Midnight before tapering off into Saturday morning. Total accumulations should remain below 1.5 inches with no other hazards expected. Cold, Arctic air will spill into the region (cold air advection) all day Saturday as skies clear throughout the day.

GFS 12Z (6am) Sunday morning surface temperatures and wind barbs showing the very cold air settling into our area after persistent cold air advection (CAA) all day Saturday.

As a result, Sunday will be very cold with morning temperatures in the low 20's reaching the mid 30's in the afternoon under sunny skies. Dust off the winter jackets again and get the hot chocolate ready.

Forecaster: Austin Boys

Quiet Weather to Start the Work Week

Days at a Glance:
Monday: Starting in the mid 40's and rising to the mid 50's under blue skies. Gusty NW winds averaging 12-17mph will make it feel on the colder side than temperatures suggest.

Tuesday: A calm and clear night will produce a morning low at or just below the freezing mark with highs barely scraping 50 under blue skies. Winds will be light and variable.

Wednesday: Another calm and clear night produces lows at or just below freezing. Highs will reach the low to mid 50's under blue skies with 6-10 mph winds out of the S-SE.

Discussion:
After a very dramatic severe weather day across the Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes region especially (Figure below), we will settle back down into a quiet weather pattern.


Initial SPC severe weather reports for today as of 8:55pm CST tonight. An overall devastating event for the Midwestern US. As of yet, Warren County had 0 reports recorded.

A high pressure system is currently shifting over our area from the west and will park it for the remainder of the forecast period. This will produce beautiful and pleasant fall-like days.

Models are depicting another blast of Arctic air near the end of the work week and into the weekend behind a relatively weak front. More on this development with Wednesday's forecast.

Forecaster: Austin Boys

Severe Weather Update

Good morning all.

As the data has rolled in, I am becoming increasingly more confident on what we all can expect in the Bowling Green area. As the squall line forms to our west around 1:00 PM today it will be moving with substantial speed the east.

NAM model simulated reflectivity showing strong line of storms moving through around 6:00 PM this evening.

The timing for this storm's impact will be between 6:00 PM and 8:00 PM. Strong to severe winds and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Again please take any needed precautions today.

Forecaster: Brian Urbancic

Severe Weather Breakdown

Good evening folks. Here is a breakdown on what we can expect for our severe weather chances for tomorrow.

Current thinking suggest showers beginning to form in the early morning hours of Sunday. Energy will be limited with these showers, but gusty winds can not be ruled out. Winds tomorrow will gust from 40-50 mph. The main line of storms looks to be passing through the Bowling Green area between the hours of 6:00 PM and 8:00 PM.  This is when the best chance of severe weather will take place.

WRF Simulated precipitation model for tomorrow evening. Squall line looks to be making its way through the Bowling Green area between 6:00 PM - 8:00 PM.

Main impacts for this event include small hail, damaging winds and a small chance for isolated tornadoes. Be aware and take needed precautions.


Forecaster: Brian Urbancic

Temperatures on the Climb!

Current temperatures in Bowling Green at the Mesonet site is 28 degrees. Temperatures will be on the climb tomorrow but starting out cold at a brisk 25 degrees. Sunshine tomorrow will bounce our temperatures up into the mid 50s! This warming trend will continue into the weekend where temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s. We could even see 70 degrees on Sunday. With these unseasonably warm temperatures, our storm chances will pick up. Timing and intensity are still questionable, but as of tonight look for a storm chance on Sunday.

NAM model run for early Sunday. Low pressure developing to our northwest raising our storm chances with an oncoming front. 

Thursday: Clear skies throughout the day with a high temperature of 56 and a low of 24 in the early morning hours. Winds becoming southwest with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Friday: Clear skies in the morning to mid afternoon then increasing clouds in the evening. High temperature of 58 with a low of 45.

Saturday: Variable cloud coverage throughout the day. High temperature of 67 and a low of 55.

Sunday: Increasing storm chance throughout the day. High temperature of 69 with a low of 53.

Stay up to date with the storm chances this weekend on the STN blog!


Forecaster: Brian Urbancic

Colder Temperatures in the Forecast

Current temperatures in Bowling Green are in the upper 50s closing in on 60 before the cold frontal passage for tonight. Our low temperature for this morning's commute was a brisk 29 degrees because of our clear skies last night. Skies currently in Bowling Green are overcast keeping temperatures on the warmer side for now. The cold front intruding our way will be knocking on our door in the early morning hours of Tuesday. With this front comes precipitation, some of which may be frozen.

As the front passes Bowling Green tomorrow morning, look for temperatures to plummet into the low 30s. This may be cold enough for some snow to develop, but no accumulations are expected. Rain will most likely form ahead, changing to light snow with the front tomorrow morning.

This figure shows the HRRR model for early tomorrow morning. Current thoughts are temperatures will be above freezing with very light snow showers between 5:00AM and 9:00AM.

 Again no impacts are expected with this system. Fast forward into later in the week and we see cooler temperatures dominating Wednesday with highs only in the low 40s. Winds will turn southerly on Thursday warming our temperatures back up into the 50s.

NAM model map for surface temperatures for early morning Wednesday. Notice the cold air dominating Kentucky and holding strong.

Monday Night: Showers beginning to develop late tonight. Winds becoming more northerly 12-15mph. Low temperature of 33.

Tuesday: High temperature of 39 with a low of 24. Sustained winds at 10-15mph with gusts near 35mph. Rain turning to snow showers tomorrow morning with no accumulation expected, then clear skies going into the night.

Wednesday: High temperature of 45 degrees with a low of 24 with clear skies. Winds turning southerly in the night.

Thursday: High temperature of 50 with a low of 35. Warming trend continuing into the weekend with southerly winds.

Forecaster: Brian Urbancic  

Cool start to the weekend!

Current temperature as of 9:00 P.M. CDT is 38 degrees under clear skies with winds W at 2 mph.  The official low at the airport this morning was 41.  An upper level low is currently located over Canada with a ridge axis stretching from New Mexico up to Montana that will be moving into our area.  Dry cold air from the north is advecting into our area which explains the clear skies over the area.  At the surface, high pressure is centered over Texas that will push into our area into tomorrow.  High pressure will move into our area tomorrow and will be in control throughout the rest of the weekend, which means it will be a great weekend to get a jump start on your Holiday Shopping.  Expect a high temperature tomorrow of 58 degrees under mostly sunny skies with a low temperature of 32 degrees.

Temperature map valid for 9:00 P.M. CDT on November 7, 2013.

Thursday Evening:  Low temperature of 34 under mostly clear skies with winds out of the west at 5 mph.  No precipitation expected.

Friday: Low temperature of 32 and a high temperature of 58 degrees with mostly sunny skies and winds out of the north at 5 mph.  No precipitation expected.  

Saturday:  Low temperature of 35 and a high temperature of 62 degrees under mostly sunny skies with winds out of the south at 5 mph.  No precipitation expected. 

Sunday:  Low temperature of 39 and a high temperature of 59 degrees under mostly sunny skies with winds out of the southwest at 5 mph.  No precipitation expected.

Forecaster:  Tyler Binkley                 

Warmer start to the week! Rain Wednesday?

Currently the temperature is 61 with winds SSW at 9 mph.  Our official low this morning was 36 degrees.  An analysis of the upper part of the atmosphere shows a ridging pattern over our area.  Winds are out of the southwest which is causing warm air advection over our area.  At the surface, high pressure is in control, however a cold front is off to our west that is moving to the NE.  We are feeling the effects in the way of cloud cover.  Since the winds are out to the south, it will allow our temperature to warm up to 64 degrees today.  Moving into Tuesday, high pressure that is over our area will begin to move out of our area, and the cold front off to our west will move off to the northeast.  An area of low pressure will form over the plains, and will move off to the NE forming a cold front that will move toward our area by Wednesday.  Winds will remain southerly on Wednesday increasing our temperatures, and the current timing of the cold front moving through is late Wednesday night.  As it currently stands, it appears that the cold front will move through as rain.  No severe weather is expected at this time.

Visible Satellite valid for 12:30 P.M. CDT on November 4, 2013.

Days at a glance

Monday afternoon:  High temperature will be 64 under partly cloudy skies with winds out of the SSW at 9 mph.  The low tonight will be 44.  No precipitation expected.

Tuesday:  Morning low will be 42 and the high temperature will be 63 under partly cloudy skies with winds out of the south at 6 mph.  No precipitation expected.   

Wednesday:  Morning low will be 47 and the high temperature will be 71 under partly to mostly cloudy skies.  A cold front will push through late Wednesday night bringing rain.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. 

Forecaster:  Tyler Binkley