Light Snow Chances Through the Weekend

Discussion:

It certainly feels warmer than the last few days as the temperature in Bowling Green has surpassed the freezing mark and looks to top out in the middle 40s by later this afternoon. To our south, portions of Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas are getting pounded by significant ice and snow which is rare for that part of the country. The area of low pressure causing trouble to our southeast has caused our skies to be mostly cloudy across the region this afternoon. There is a possibility for a few rain or snow showers to impact areas right along the KY/TN border later today as the low pressure moves farther east. As of right now it looks like little to no accumulation of snow to any areas that see any precipitation across the southern part of the state.

Ice and snow accumulation in Augusta, GA. (Courtesy: WJBF-6 Augusta)

This area of low pressure will turn up the east coast, and cloud cover will move out of the area overnight as temperatures dip down to the lower 20ss. On Thursday, an area of weak high pressure will keep skies clear with temperatures in the lower to middle 40s. Lows Thursday night look to be around 30 degrees.

Friday's weather could be messy as there are some snow chances in the forecast. A weak disturbance will dive into Kentucky early on Friday. There is a bit of model disagreement as to how far south this disturbance will track. A track farther to the south could mean more precipitation for our area, but a track to the north would mean less precipitation. There is also the question of precipitation type. While the precipitation looks to begin as snow during the morning Friday, southwesterly winds will help bring temperatures up to around 40 degrees during the afternoon which will transition the precipitation to rain. As the system dives southeast late Friday, we could see some of the precipitation end as snow before midnight Friday. As of right now, it looks like the bulk of precipitation looks to miss our area, with temps getting too warm on Friday for any accumulations. There is a chance for a dusting to half inch of snow as the system departs Friday night. We will monitor this system for any changes over the new two days.

12Z GFS  Surface Precipitation Type for 3PM Friday afternoon shows how close that rain/snow line will be to Bowling Green.

On Saturday, we will be influenced by another weak surface high pressure which will keep skies clear with high temperatures in the middle to upper 30s. Saturday night, another clipper system looks to dive in from the northwest, but confidence is pretty high that the precipitation will stay north of southern Kentucky. A few light snow showers are possible Saturday night as the clipper skirts to the north with our low temperature around 30 degrees. If Friday's clipper could lay down a light accumulation of snow across central Kentucky, that snow cover could influence a more southerly track of Saturday night's clipper so this is another system we will be watching for any changes.

An upper level ridge will nose its way eastward on Sunday, bringing clear skies and high temperatures near...50 degrees. 50 degrees will be certainly be welcomed after our recent cold spell and their are some indications that warmer temps could last into the middle of next week. That is all for this afternoon, have a great day!

Days at a Glance:

Wednesday: High - 43 Low - 22 Winds - Light and Variable
Precipitation: 20% chance of isolated rain and snow showers, especially across the KY/TN border. Skies - Mostly Cloudy becoming Clear overnight.

Thursday: High - 44 Low - 29 Winds - SW at 3-7 mph.
Precipitation: 0% Skies - Clear.

Friday: High - 41 Low - 24 Winds - SW becoming W at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation: 50% chance of rain and snow showers during the day becoming snow showers Friday night. Accumulations: A dusting to half an inch. Skies - Cloudy.

Saturday: High - 37 Low - 30 Winds- S at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation: 20% chance of isolated snow showers Saturday night. Skies- Partly Cloudy becoming Mostly Cloudy overnight.

Sunday: High - 47 Low - 34 Winds - S at 3-5 mph.
Precipitation: 0% Skies - Partly Cloudy.

Forecaster: Zack Leasor

Snow Chances and Cold Weather Continues

Discussion:

The cold weather will continue this week as the eastern half of the country remains under a stubborn upper level trough. The current temperature at the Warren County airport is 32 degrees under cloudy skies. Skies will remain cloudy as a weak disturbance dives into our area tonight bringing a chance for light snow. Much like the other disturbances that have impacted us in the past week this disturbance only brings a chance for a dusting to a half inch of snow. A few locations could see up to an inch to our north. Light snow looks to begin around 5 PM and end around midnight. Additional snow showers are possible overnight into the morning with low temperatures around 25 degrees. The map below showing accumulated snowfall with tonight's system according to the 12Z NAM paints most of Kentucky with up to an inch of snow.



12Z NAM Accumulated Snowfall through Noon Monday (Courtesy: NOAA)

Heading into the work week, the upper level trough will continue to keep our temperatures well below normal. Except for a few flurries possible Monday, the beginning of the week looks dry with temperatures on Monday and Tuesday struggling to reach 30 degrees with lows in the teens. On Wednesday, temperatures will reach the middle 30s ahead of an area of low pressure swinging through the southeast. Southern Kentucky will be right on the northwest edge of the precipitation with most of the moisture to our southeast. A few rain or snow showers are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night with no accumulations expected at this time. However, any changes in the track of the low could mean more impacts for our area so we will be keeping an eye on any possible changes to Wednesday's forecast.

 

 

Days at a Glance:

 

Sunday Night: Low - 25 Winds - N at 5-7 mph.

Precipitation: 50% chance of light snow. Accumulations of a dusting to 0.5". Skies - Cloudy.

 

Monday: High - 29 Low -13 Winds - N at 5-10 mph.

Precipitation: 30% chance of scattered snow showers before noon. Skies - Mostly Cloudy

 

Tuesday: High -28 Low - 18 Winds - N at 5-10 mph.

Precipitation: 0% Skies - Partly Cloudy

 

Wednesday: High - 36 Low - 20 Winds - Light and Variable.

Precipitation: 20% chance of rain or snow showers. Skies - Partly Cloudy becoming Mostly Cloudy overnight.

 

Forecaster: Zack Leasor

 



Chilly Rest of the Week

Good evening everyone. Hope you all are safe on the roads cause they are a bit slick out there! Current temperature in Bowling Green is 27 degrees with winds out of the northwest at 5 mph.
Winter is here to stay through the rest of the week with our temperatures struggling to get above the freezing mark.

Tomorrow's clouds will keep temperatures below freezing as high pressure begins to make its way in. Flurries cannot be ruled out tomorrow afternoon into the early evening hours though. A few rays of sunshine may make an appearance on Friday afternoon as temperatures will still struggle to raise above freezing with northwest winds. Our next disturbance looks to take shape Friday night. Accumulations look to be light at best. A dusting could accumulate Friday night into Saturday morning.

GFS 00Z paints a good picture of what one can expect. Light and scattered accumulations Friday night into Saturday morning. 

Which brings us to our next snow chance on Sunday. There's a few discrepancies between the models as you can see in the picture below. The NAM model on goes out to 84 hours so it is difficult to get an exact idea but going with persistence, a dusting to half of an inch cannot be ruled out on Sunday.

NAM vs. GFS model 00Z model run valid for Sunday morning at 3 AM.

Again, this does not look like anything too major, but be cautious of slick roadways this weekend before going out!

Days at a Glance
Thursday: High of 25 with a low of 11. Winds NNW 5-10 mph with wind chills approaching the single digits. A few flurries under mostly cloudy skies.


Friday: High of 30 with a low of 19. Partly cloudy skies. Winds from the north at 5 mph. Chance for a few flakes Friday night into Saturday morning. Slight chance for light accumulations. Chance of precip 30%.

Saturday: High of 35 with a low of 25. A few morning snow showers. Mostly cloudy skies.

Sunday: High of 32 with a low of 20. Chance of precip 30%.


Forecaster: Brian Urbancic

Rain Rain Go Away!

Good evening folks. Hope everyone had a safe night even though our snow forecast never panned out. Some wet weather looks to be in our sights again late tomorrow morning lasting through Tuesday night then switching over to some light sleet early Wednesday morning. No accumulation is expected as most of this will just be rain. So how much rain can we expect?

High resolution NAM model data valid for tomorrow at 12 PM. Notice heavy rain just to our south pushing to the NE.

The Weather Prediction Center puts Bowling Green around the 1.5 inch range for total rain accumulation. This seems a little high to us therefore one inch of rain accumulation is what we're going with. Take a look below at what the WPC is forecasting!

Two day total accumulation, which goes through Wednesday afternoon issued from the Weather Prediction Center.

Days at a Glance

Tuesday - High of 38 with a low of 30. Rain moving in during the late morning to early afternoon and continuing through the night. Total rain accumulations of 1 inch expected.

Wednesday - High of 35 with a low of 21. Mostly cloudy skies, NW winds at 5-10 mph.

Thursday - High of 32 with a low of 21. Partly sunny skies, NW winds at 5 mph.

Our next storm system looks to move in Saturday night. Cannot judge if it will be a snow or rain maker yet, but be on the lookout for another update on this system Wednesday.

Forecaster: Brian Urbancic

Got Snow??? ...Winter Weather Bust

Many are waking up this morning expecting to look outside and see a winter wonder land. However, most are only waking up to some very minor sleet and snow accumulations. In general, there were not even any reports of up to an inch of accumulation. Thus, in our books this was admittedly a "busted" forecast on our part. Our forecast of 3-6 inches posted yesterday afternoon is not exactly the 0.1" we officially received. In other words, our forecast was as bad as having to sit through a Super Bowl in which the Broncos got routed 43-8 to Seahawks last night. We know there are questions as to what went wrong and we want to be open in not shying away from an error in the forecast. We also want to explain a little about why things didn't favor the snow in the end.

A picture of the dusting of sleet and snow in Bowling Green courtesy of @Wx_Or_Not. Certainly far from the significant snowfall which was forecast.

To open, this has always been an extremely difficult forecast. If you are a frequent reader of the blog you should have gotten that impression as we tried to emphasize the difficulty in forecasting this system in prior posts. We knew all along that Warren County/Bowling Green was right on the line. In the end, we provided our best forecast based on the data we had, given the high amount of uncertainty. Here are a few quotes from our posts outlining the uncertainly:

"Totals are tough to judge. What we know as of now, a heavy snow band with a tight gradient will set up tonight in Kentucky. Current data suggests Bowing Green will be on the tip of this heavy snow line." - Posted Sunday at 4:18 pm

"The dividing line will be very close to our area and if the temperatures in the atmosphere can cool off just enough early on, a transition to snow will occur earlier. If it can't though, it may be that areas just to our north are seeing snow while our area hangs on to rain for several more hours. Truly just a tough call." -Posted Saturday at 10:02 pm

Seems like the second quote ended up being exactly what occurred as we saw rain while areas just to our north saw winter weather (mostly sleet at first) as early as mid afternoon yesterday. In the end, an area of snow did occur, but we ended up being just outside of the area that received the snow. For the most part that band was concentrated along the Western Kentucky Parkway corridor and east into central Kentucky. Below is a rough estimate of the snowfall totals from the NWS in Louisville.

So here is the what did/didn't happen... keep in mind that a technical question requires a technical response, but I'll try to keep it simplistic. To best sum it up, we had an area of warm air above the surface which was just above freezing. This resulted in what started falling as snow way up in the atmosphere, to melt and fall to the ground as rain. Once temperatures dipped below freezing, this became areas of freezing rain as it froze on contact. Eventually, when the area of warm air became smaller so to speak, the precipitation fell as some sleet. The graphic below explains the difference between why we may see snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. The graphic is courtesy of the NWS.

While we knew some sleet and freezing rain was possible, we expected that warm area of air to cool faster than it did, thus giving an area snow and heavy snow at that. Below is a model interpretation from the SREF model indicating this area of warm air. Notice how close the temperature (the red line) is to the blue freezing line... just a minor shift in this line and we see a significant snowfall in our area.

This SREF model data of the temperature profile from the surface to the upper atmosphere shows an area of warm air above freezing which caused the falling snowflakes to melt. Just a slight decrease in these temperatures would have resulted in much more snow.

Finally, just to provide an example of some of the behind the scenes data that we analyze... the image below is a short range model (HRRR) that was put out Sunday afternoon indicating 12 inches of snow in our area. While we were not crazy enough to believe those numbers, it just goes to show you how difficult it can be to try to make the right forecast given the data that we have. This was certainly not the only model indicating a significant snowfall.

We hope this gives you some insight into the forecast difficulty with a system like last night's. In the end, we hope to learn from this system and have an improved forecast in the future as a result. We also apologize if our bad forecast resulted in taking unnecessary action; but always better to be over prepared than under prepared. Also note that the snow/sleet/freezing rain did result is some slick spots on roadways, so be careful if traveling this morning. Thanks all for your support and thank you for reading. 

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

Winter Storm Warning

Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the Bowling Green area from 5 PM Sunday to 6 AM Sunday.

With that being said good afternoon folks and welcome to an interesting weather forecast for the night. As of now our cold front has pushed through as our winds are from the northwest. Temperatures will continue to drop through the afternoon into the night with rain switching to snow  early this evening.

Purple dashed line indicates the surface freezing line. Notice the northwesterly winds advecting cold air.

Winds at the mid levels of the atmosphere are coming from the SSW providing sufficient moisture for the system moving through, with sufficient upper level energy. This transition zone is currently on the Ohio river and pushing to the southeast. The major question is what time is the change over to snow and how much can we expect in Bowling Green??

As of now the change over to snow looks to occur around 6 PM - 7 PM tonight. 

 

Moderate to heavy snow showing up in the 18Z data. This run is valid for early tomorrow morning. North of the blue line across Kentucky is snow.

Totals are tough to judge. What we know as of now, a heavy snow band with a tight gradient will set up tonight in Kentucky. Current data suggests Bowing Green will be on the tip of this heavy snow line. Three to 6 inches of snow is our current thinking for total accumulation in Bowling Green. Snow will push out around 6 AM.

Be careful during tomorrows commute and tonight as you travel to and from Super Bowl parties. Moderate to heavy snow may impact the area around 11 PM - 1 AM. Roads tomorrow morning will be slick and snow covered if we do receive 3-6 inches. Snow is nothing to mess around with!


Forecaster: Brian Urbancic

Rain & Snow Potential

**Winter Storm Watch from 3 pm Sunday to 9 am Monday.**

As mentioned in the last forecast discussion, wintry weather was possible from Sunday morning into Sunday night. It was also mentioned that the forecast for Sunday was a low confidence forecast. This was because of the large variability/uncertainly in the forecast computer models used to analyze the weather. Models have now come into good agreement on the chance of snow Sunday evening/overnight... the question remains how much and what time.

Currently there is a low pressure centered near the eastern Great Lakes with a cold front extending southward through the Ohio Valley. Scattered showers extend generally along the front back into Arkansas. This front and the associated showers are generally headed in our direction and thus scattered rain showers are expected overnight. Scattered showers should be moving into our area generally around midnight this tonight and will continue off-and-on into Sunday morning.

Tomorrow is when things get interesting because colder air will filter in overnight behind the aforementioned cold front. By tomorrow morning temperatures will have fallen around 40 and possibly as low as the upper 30s.

Temperatures will hold steady for the most part through noon as areas of scattered light showers or areas of drizzle continue. By around the noon time showers will once again be increasing in coverage as a result of a wave of low pressure which will ride northeastward along the slow moving cold front. By afternoon, steady rain showers will once again be spread across south-central Kentucky. All told, rainfall should be in the 0.40 to 0.80" range before a transition to snow will occur. Some locations could see up to an inch of rain.

NAM model valid for 9pm tomorrow. The blue line on this model is a rough estimation of where the rain/snow line will be. Notice that it cuts right through south-central Kentucky which is an indication of just how tricky this forecast is.

The time of transition from rain to snow is very tricky. Furthermore there could be a time of some sleet mixing in with rain and then snow and if temperatures cool quick enough at the surface, even a brief round of light freezing rain is possible. The best educated "guess" at a change over time is between 6 pm and 10 pm. I realize a 4 hour window is very large but even at this point, it is just to difficult to say. The dividing line will be very close to our area and if the temperatures in the atmosphere can cool off just enough early on, a transition to snow will occur earlier. If it can't though, it may be that areas just to our north are seeing snow while our area hangs on to rain for several more hours. Truly just a tough call.

Obviously, the time of changeover will affect the amount of total snowfall. If a transition to snow occurs earlier... in general more snow; if later... in general less snow. There also remain questions about just how much moisture will be fed into the area after the transition occurs. For now, I expect accumulations to be in general 1-3 inches though I wouldn't be surprised if some locations saw locally around 4". After snowfall begins to fall, temperatures will drop below freezing.

Regardless of the exact amount and even timing of the snow, the confidence of at least some snow with deteriorating driving conditions is high. Thus it is recommended not to travel during the late afternoon and especially the evening hours Sunday. Temperatures will drop into the upper 20s overnight Sunday.

Snow showers will end before daybreak. However, at least a few areas of flurries will remain possible through Monday morning.

Note that this forecasts has a lot of uncertainties at this time and some adjustments with the forecast are likely. Accumulating snowfall seems likely but the transition time and the total accumulation remain question marks. Brain Urbancic will provide an update with the latest thoughts tomorrow. Please check back for the updated information.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

Trending Warmer & Wetter

As expected, temperatures finally managed to rise above the freezing mark this afternoon on a way to a high of 41 here in Bowling Green. This "warmer" trend if you will is expected to continue into the weekend.

We currently sit in the return flow region of a high pressure system. This return flow is allowing the temperatures to moderate as well as for moisture to increase in the region. The continually increasing moisture combined with a disturbance in the atmosphere moving our way this weekend will create the possibility of rain in the area by Saturday and some wintry weather is possibly by Sunday morning. 

Between now and then we'll see areas of cloud-cover but really nothing more than that as areas of precipitation move northwest of the Ohio River. It is Saturday afternoon/evening when the chance for rain begins to increase and overnight Saturday, rain seems likely. Rainfall shouldn't be overly significant but anywhere from 0.25 to 0.50" is possible at this point in time; some locations could see more.

A quarter to half inch of rainfall is expected over south-central Kentucky Saturday night. Some locations could see locally more.

By early Sunday morning, enough cold air could filter into the area to allow some of the rain over to a wintry mix of some sleet, freezing rain (if temperatures drop enough), and snow as precipitation is coming to an end. While the potential is there, at this time the overall threat for anything of concern is low because moisture will be quickly departing as the temperatures cool and in the end temperatures may not cool quite enough anyway.

Sunday should remain cloudy to mostly cloudy as another weak disturbance passes through the area. There remains the chance of a few showers or snow showers on Sunday and by Sunday night, a wintry mix again seems possible. Models remain unsure on how aggressive the system Sunday night will be. As of right now, it appears precipitation should remain light however this is subject to change as does the precipitation type. For now, I wouldn't be overly concerned with this threat but I would recommend monitoring future forecasts due to the high amount of uncertainly. In general, the forecast for Sunday remains at a low confidence level at this time due to this uncertainty and the model discrepancy.

Early next week should bring in more active weather so certainly keep an eye out for future forecasts.

Daily Forecasts:

Thursday Night: Mostly clear with increasing clouds around morning. Low near 27. South winds at 5-10 mph.

Friday: Mostly cloudy skies with a high near 44. South winds at 5-12 mph.

Friday Night: Cloudy with a low near 40. South winds at 8-15 mph.

Saturday: Cloudy with a high around 61. Windy with south-southwest winds at 10-20 mph; gusts possible over 25 mph. 40% chance of rain during the afternoon.

Saturday Night: Rain likely, 80%. Rain will be steady with between 0.25-0.50" expected, some areas could see locally more. A transition to a wintry mix is possible by early Sunday as rain transitions to or mixes with sleet and snow. No significant accumulations are expected at this time. Winds will switch from the south-southwest to the northwest. Low around 35.

Sunday: A 30% chance of wintry mix early; 30% chance of showers during the day with a 40% chance of rain/wintry mix/light snow during the evening into the overnight hours. Otherwise cloudy with a high around around 42. Overnight lows are expected to be in the low 30s. *Note: low confidence for Sunday/Sunday night*

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

Frigid Temperatures Return

It was an excellent day on Sunday across south-central Kentucky as we rose to a high of 60 today under mostly sunny skies. It was certainly windy at times with gusts as high as 36 mph reported at the Bowling Green airport. I hope you enjoyed it because change is on its way.

An arctic front is currently (midnight Sunday night) located from the Great Lakes down into Arkansas and it's quickly moving in our direction. The front should pass through by 3am and could be accompanied by a light shower or after temperatures cool enough a snow shower. Any precipitation that falls will be very light and most locations likely will not see anything at all.

Winds could be gusty as the front moves through with gusts 30 mph+ possible.

A cold front is passing through Kentucky overnight Sunday. A few isolated light showers/snow showers could occur along and behind the front but the real story is another round of very cold temperatures that will move in by Monday.

The the plunge will concur behind the frontal passage and will return us to the kind of weather we should be quite accustom too by now. By morning temperatures will be falling through the low 20s down into the upper teens. During the day, temperatures will struggle to warm as we may only manage to reach a daytime high in the upper teens.

Breezy northwest winds Monday morning will create wind chills down into the single digits. Meanwhile skies will remain mostly cloudy throughout the day. This combined with the cold breezy conditions will certainly get the week off to a rough start.

Conditions Monday night through Wednesday will remain much the same with very cold temperatures. Both Monday and Tuesday night temperatures will fall into the low single digits and some locations in the area may even fall down to 0. Tuesday will be another mostly cloudy day before skies finally begin to clear overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday.

Certainly take the typical cold weather precautions as have been advised over the past couple weeks including bringing pets indoors and leaving a light trickle or drip in water facets to prevent pipes from freezing. And of course, dress warmly!

The weather pattern will begin to change somewhat as we move from Wednesday into the end of the week. Southerly winds around a surface high pressure will allow for some moderation in temperatures by Thursday and into the late week/weekend we could see a system bring in some rain to the area.

Daily Forecasts:

Monday: Mostly cloudy and cold, could be a few scattered flurries. Temperatures will drop to around 16 during the morning with a daytime high around 18. Temperatures will drop into the low teens by the afternoon. Breezy northwest winds from 5-12 mph will create wind chills in the single digits to near 0.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy and cold. Low near 4 with wind chills dipping as low as -10. North winds at 5-12 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy and cold. High around 16. Northerly winds from 3-8 mph. Wind chills from -5 to 10.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy and cold with a low near 5. Winds will be light to calm.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and slightly warmer with a high near 25. Southwest winds from 3-8 mph.

Thursday: After a cold start near 12 we'll see increasing clouds and warmer temperatures with a high near 41.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

The Cold Continues!

Discussion 
Good evening everyone and I hope you are bundled up. Currently Bowling Green is at 22 degrees with winds at 4 mph coming from the SW. This is providing no relief to our area, which is under a Wind Chill Advisory from 3 AM to to 12 PM tomorrow. Winds will be gusting up to 20 mph overnight which will send wind chills into  negative values tomorrow morning. Bring in outside pets for the overnight cause it will be brutal.

Map highlighting the Wind Chill Advisory which is valid for Bowling Green at 3 AM - 12 PM tomorrow

Below freezing temperatures look to be here through the rest of the week. Saturday is when our next warm up is to take place where temps look to top out around 40.

Days at a Glance

Thursday: High of 15 with a low of 7. Wind chill values could be as low as -7 degrees tomorrow morning. 0% chance precip. Mostly cloudy skies.

Friday: High of 24 with a low of 5. Wind chill values could be as low -3 degrees. Cloudy conditions with 0% chance fore precip.

Saturday: High of 38 with a low of 25 with a 30% chance for precipitation.

Sunday: High of 44 with a low of 25.



Forecaster: Brian Urbancic

Winter Weather Advisory

Good afternoon folks!

Just wanted to send out a quick update on the system working in tomorrow. There looks to be a little more moisture mixing in than previously thought. A winter weather advisory is in effect from 12 AM Tuesday to 12 PM Tuesday (midnight tonight-noon tomorrow). This clipper system is capable of putting down a quick inch of snow.

New totals look to be a dusting to an inch for Bowling Green. Here's a look at the simulated reflectivity for tomorrow morning around 6 AM.

NAM simulated reflectivity model run valid for 18z today. 

I do not expect all of this to stick because of such warm conditions today. Be on the lookout tomorrow morning though because this round of snow looks to move in before the morning commute around 3-4 AM. Remember to take it slow tomorrow morning and give yourself plenty of time. Have a great Monday afternoon!

Forecaster: Brian Urbancic

Fair Today/Tomorrow, Cold Later in the Week

Discussion

Today has brought clear weather this afternoon in Bowling with temperatures topping out at 44 degrees. Give thanks to those southwest winds which are providing relief before another cold week.

Kentucky Mesonet showing our winds coming from our southwest giving a slight relief from the cold today and tomorrow.

 Another clipper system will usher in cold air from Canada on Tuesday dropping our temperatures into the mid to lower teens at night. Upper level energy looks decent, but the lack of moisture is an issue to produce a measurable amount of snow. One thing we can count on is the cold moving in. Highs Wednesday look to be in the upper 20s, and if we get clear skies, lows could be in the single digits again later in the week.

Daily Forecast

Sunday Night: Low of 31 with clear skies and winds staying out of the SW at 9 mph.

Monday: High of 44 with skies clear with a few stray clouds. Low of 25 with winds beginning to come from the NW at 3-5 mph.

Tuesday: High of 25 with clouds moving in during the morning hours. A few flurries can be expected. Low of 15 with winds at 5 mph.

Wednesday: High of 27 with clouds clearing in the afternoon. Low of 17 with clouds pushing in during the evening.


Forecaster: Brian Urbancic

Cold Weather Continues!

Discussion:

Good afternoon! Currently at the Warren County the temperature is 30 degrees with winds W at 9 mph. A deep upper level trough is sitting over the eastern half of the United States which is the source of our cold weather today. Current visible imagery satellite shows cloud cover over most of Kentucky resulting in statewide mostly cloudy skies along with some snow flurries. With the trough axis moving right over Kentucky this evening, the cloud deck should break up some and temperatures will fall into the lower 20s with partly cloudy skies overnight. On Thursday, an area of low pressure to our north will move across the Great Lakes region, spreading precipitation into our area late Thursday into Friday. Thurdsday will be warmer than today as temperatures increase ahead of the approaching system Thursday afternoon. Gusty southerly winds will allow temperatures to reach the upper 30s before precipitation begins Thursday. Precipitation will be very light and start out as a mix of rain and snow showers early Thursday evening. Cooler temperatures will come crashing in on Thursday night allowing precipitation to change over all snow showers. These snow showers will be scattered and as of now accumulations look to be anywhere from a dusting to a half inch of snow by Friday morning.

Current visible imagery satellite showing cloud cover and snow flurries over all of Kentucky this afternoon.
Valid 2:30 P.M. CST (Courtesy: NOAA)

The trough will be slow to makes its way east and exit the region Friday, so snow showers and cloud cover will persist through Friday afternoon. The snow showers should be light and no accumulations are expected. Temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark Friday afternoon and with clearing skies Friday night, low temperatures will fall to around 17 degrees. Another shortwave will dive into Kentucky from the north on Saturday. Precipitation is not expected to drop far enough south to impact southern Kentucky. However, ahead of the system on Saturday temperatures will reach around 40 degrees and increasing cloud cover will accompany the trough sliding east Saturday night. On Sunday, temperatures will reach the lower 40s under clear skies as southwesterly winds help to warm our area.

Forecast:

Wednesday Night: Low - 21 Winds - NW at 5-10 mph becoming calm overnight.
Precipitation - 10% chance of snow flurries before 7PM. Skies - Mostly Cloudy becoming Clear overnight.

Thursday: High - 37 Low - 26 Winds - S at 5-15 mph becoming W at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation - 30% of rain and snow showers from Noon to 7 PM, then 30% of snow showers Thursday night. Snow accumulations of a dusting to 0.5". Skies - Mostly Cloudy during the morning becoming Cloudy.

Friday: High - 30 Low - 17 Winds - NW at 5-15 mph.
Precipitation - 30% chance of snow showers. Skies - Cloudy becoming Clear overnight.

Saturday: High - 39 Low - 24 Winds - SW at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation - 10% chance of an isolated snow shower. Skies - Mostly Cloudy.

Sunday: High - 43 Low - 29 Winds - SW at 5 - 10 mph.
Precipitation - 0% Skies - Partly Cloudy.

Forecaster: Zack Leasor

Colder Temperatures to Return by Midweek

Discussion:

What a difference a week makes! Last Sunday, we were dealing with mixed precipitation, high winds, and extremely cold temperatures. Today is a different story as the longwave trough that brought us  rain this weekend continues to move eastward. Behind this trough warmer temperatures, mostly clear skies, and southerly winds will be on tap for Sunday. Currently, at the Bowling Green airport the temperature is 46 degrees with winds at 9 mph  from the southwest. Southerly winds will allow for warm air advection to raise our temperature into the lower 50s this afternoon underneath an upper level ridge. Tonight, southerly winds will increase a bit and help to move clouds into the area before the next trough swings through the region Monday. As a result of the cloud cover tonight, low temperatures this evening will only dip into the lower 40s.



12Z GFS showing a large upper level trough over the area Wednesday afternoon. (Valid 18Z Wednesday) Courtesy: NOAA

Beginning on Monday, a series of disturbances will impact Warren County daily through midweek making for a tricky forecast. Monday morning temperatures will be quick to rise into the lower 50s ahead of the next upper level trough. By midday the upper level trough will have generated an area of rain over southern Kentucky. This rain will not be very heavy but will last until Monday evening with precipitation amounts remaining light. Cold air may catch up with the ending precipitation as the temperature drops into the lower 30s Monday night but any snow showers will be very light in nature and no snow accumulations are expected.Winter tries to make its return to our area starting on Tuesday. Tuesday will start off under mostly clear skies and southwesterly winds. Temperatures will struggle to reach 50 degrees before winds turn northwesterly and the next disturbance moves in from the west. This shortwave will give us an outside chance of a rain shower Tuesday afternoon. By Tuesday night, precipitation coverage will increase  as temperatures fall, and snow showers will be possible. These snow showers look relatively light at this time, but there is a chance for very light snow accumulations Tuesday night. Any changes in Tuesday's forecast regarding snowfall amounts will be addressed in a forecast update if necessary. The Tennessee Valley will be right under the upper level trough on Wednesday and it will be a chilly day, as temperatures will struggle to get above freezing. There is a chance for a few flurries Wednesday and Wednesday night, but these will be isolated in nature.

Forecast:

Sunday: High - 53 Low - 42 Winds - S at 5-10 mph increasing to 10-15 mph overnight.
Precipitation - 0% Skies - Mostly Clear becoming Mostly Cloudy overnight.

Monday: High  - 52 Low - 33 Winds - S at 5-10 mph  turning W at 3-7 mph overnight.
Precipitation - 70% chance of rain after noon. Slight chance of a snow shower before precipitation ends Monday evening. Rainfall amounts  ranging from .1"-.25". No snow accumulation expected. Skies - Cloudy Skies becoming Partly Cloudy overnight.

Tuesday: High - 48 Low - 27 Winds - SW at 5-12 mph turning NW at 5-10 mph overnight.
Precipitation - 30% chance of rain showers during the day, 40% chance of snow showers overnight. Rainfall amounts <.1". A dusting up to 0.5" of snow accumulation is possible Tuesday night.
Skies - Partly Cloudy skies Tuesday morning, then Cloudy skies.

Wednesday: High - 31 Low - 24 Winds - NW at 5-12 mph.
Precipitation - 10% chance of an isolated flurry Wednesday morning. Skies - Cloudy skies Wednesday morning becoming Clear overnight.

Forecaster: Zack Leasor

More Rain on Deck

Quantitative precipitation forecast through Saturday morning.

Rain has been the story as of late across south-central Kentucky, with even some sleet and snow mixing in with yesterday's showers. While the surface was above freezing, the temperature profiles through the atmosphere allowed some frozen precipitation to fall. With the arrival of warmer air today, any precip that falls today will be strictly rain. Rain is especially likely this evening into tonight, with total rainfall up to an inch possible. High temperatures through the next few days will be 5-10 degrees above normal, with a chance of rain returning on Monday. As for tonight, we may see a little lightning as isolated thunderstorms are possible.

At this hour, a warm front is aligned with the Ohio River. It has been moving ever so slightly to the north, allowing warmer air from the Gulf to advect into our region. As a result, high temperatures into early next week will be in the 50s, much improved from where we were earlier this week! (It is interesting to note that we were in the 50s this time last year as well.) A disturbance is beginning to take shape over the Oklahoma panhandle, and will develop into a mid-latitude cyclone by the afternoon. This low will eject to the northeast as it matures, and should be centered over Wisconsin by tonight. The subsequent cold front, draped across the US from north to south, should impact our area after around midnight. This will bring a solid shield of rain with it, which may not clear until Saturday morning. Many areas in our region could pick up a half-inch to even an inch of rainfall.

High pressure is set to replace the departing low come Saturday night, meaning Sunday should be full of sunshine. No cold blast is expected to fill in the gap this time. High temperatures should remain in the 50s for another day or two, so get out there and enjoy the balmy weather!

Daily Forecasts:

Today: Cloudy with showers beginning this afternoon. High of 54°. Winds from the south at 5-10 mph.
Tonight: Rain likely through 5 AM, with tapering activity through sunrise. Low near 49°. Winds picking up from the south at 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20-25. Don't be surprised to hear a rumble of thunder!
Saturday: High around 50° under mostly cloudy skies. Blustery with west winds at 10-20 mph, gusting to 30.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy and cooler with a low of 32°. Winds from the west at 5-10 mph.
Sunday: A high near 52° under sunny skies. South winds at 10-15 mph.

Forecaster: Caleb Chevalier

Milder Temperatures Set to Return!

Bowling Green is in the final stretch of this arctic blast, which has brought cold to the region not seen in nearly 20 years. Much of Monday was spent near the 0-5° mark, flirting with the record books. This bitter freeze was brought about by the polar jet stream surging into the Midwest. Arctic air essentially moved downstream with the jet and collided with a flux of Gulf moisture on Sunday afternoon, bringing hefty snowfalls to the Corn Belt. The frigid temperatures were felt by a great deal of the East Central US, Bowling Green being no exception. Thankfully, relief is in sight. The howling winds which brought about dangerous wind chills are due to decrease. The Wind Chill Advisory for Warren County is set to expire at 9:00 AM CST this morning.

Forecast high temperatures across the East US today.

Temperatures will make a much better rebound effort today than yesterday. A low pressure system over the Hudson Bay will guide the polar jet on a retreating course to the north and east, resulting in zonal flow over south-central Kentucky. The Canadian air mass in place will be ushered along with it. While Tuesday will still be very cold, high temperatures will sit in the upper teens, perhaps reaching the 20s. A relaxed pressure gradient will result in lower wind speeds, hovering between 5-10 mph. However, this still means wind chills in the single digits today! Be sure to bundle up if you must be outside and leave exposed flesh to a minimum.

"Warmer" temperatures are just around the corner! High pressure is set to mature over the southern US tomorrow and skirt eastward. This will aid in advecting warmer air to our region, which will make for a nice return to more average conditions. Expect 30s for Wednesday and 40s by Thursday! A chance for rain and some morning flurries arrives on Thursday as well, but at this time, any snow or wintry mix looks to be minor.

Daily Forecasts:

Today: A high of 19° with winds from the south at 5-10 mph. Wind chill values below zero in the morning, then 0-5° by evening. Sunny skies.
Tonight: A few clouds with a low near 15°. South winds at 5-10 mph. Wind chill values from 5-10°.
Wednesday: A little warmer with a high around 37°. Winds from the south at 5-10 mph. Wind chill values between 5-10° in the morning.
Wednesday night: Clouds return. A low of 27° with light winds.
Thursday: Brief chance of snow/wintry mix during the morning hours (very minor accumulations) changing to rain before noon. Milder with a high of 44°. Chance of precipitation 30%.

Forecaster: Caleb Chevalier

More Snow... and Bitterly COLD Temperatures

As of midday Saturday, temperatures were moderating into the low 40ss under sunny skies with gusty southerly winds. This warm up will only be a brief warm tease however before another arctic cold front plows through the area on Sunday. Along this front is a wave of low pressure and a upper atmospheric disturbance which will cause precipitation to fall across south-central Kentucky beginning in the early morning hours Sunday and continuing into Sunday night. With the warmer air that is filtering in today with the southerly winds, precipitation is expected to again be primarily rain. If precipitation moves in before 8 am tomorrow morning there could be some sleet mixed in with the rain briefly; however that is for the most part unlikely and even it it did occur, there would be no impacts as it would be above freezing and it would quickly transition to all rain. Rain really is not expected to begin until the 10 am to 1 pm time frame. Rain could be fairly steady during the afternoon hours Sunday with 0.20" - 0.40" of rain generally falling in the area; a few locations could see as much as a half an inch of rain. Then comes the transition to snow.

Current thinking (an even at this late hour it could change) is that rain will change to snow between 4-7 pm as a very powerful cold front will move through and quickly cause temperatures to plummet. Temperatures will rapidly fall from the low 40s around 3 pm to the low 20s by 8 pm. With temperatures dropping so quickly any moisture from the rain and the initially melting snow could cause a layer of ice to form in some locations beneath the snow, especially by Monday morning when temperatures are near 0. As for the snow... there will be a quick burst of light to moderate snow, similar to that of Thursday only lasting just a little longer. With rain changing to snow generally around 6 pm and continuing until around 9-10 pm snow totals should generally be 1-3 inches. Travel will certainly be impacted once the rain changes to snow and through the overnight hours into Monday. Both the freezing of rain water/melted snow and the snow itself will create slick conditions. Travel is certainly not advised. Snow will remain on the ground and untreated/uncleared roads for several days as an arctic air mass unlike we have seen for many years. Thus travel could be an issue on some roads until temperatures warm above freezing which likely will not occur until Wednesday. Also some road treatment materials will not work in the extreme cold temperatures which we are expected Sunday night - Tuesday. Light snow showers and flurries are also possible on Monday which could lead to additional accumulation of around a half an inch... just enough to continue potential travel problems.

As for the cold, many comparisons to the cold outbreak are being made to January of 1994. The last time we saw below 0 temperatures in Bowling Green was February* of 2011 when the airport dipped to -3 but the extended cold we are expecting early this week is not really comparable to that event. Getting to the details... the powerful cold front which will move through Sunday afternoon will quickly drop temperatures as already mentioned. Once temperatures begin dropping Sunday afternoon they will not stop until Monday morning when temperatures are expected to dip near 0. Cloudy skies, snow showers and continued cold west to northwest winds on Monday will not allow temperatures to rise above 5! Meanwhile the blustery winds will cause wind chill values to drop into the -15 to -25 range early Monday morning into Monday afternoon and overnight Monday to Tuesday morning! According the National Weather Service, frostbite can begin in just 30 minutes of exposure to these temperatures. In other words, going outside on Monday into Tuesday morning is not suggested if it can be avoided. If you must go outdoors, do so for short periods of time and dress in layers. Monday evening into Tuesday morning temperatures will again drop below 0, possibly dropping as low as -4 in some areas! Again, wind chills will remain in the -15 to -25 range. Skies will likely start out partly to mostly cloudy on Tuesday with skies becoming partly cloudy by the afternoon. It will remain very cold Tuesday with highs expected to climb to the mid teens. Wind chills will remain cold in the 5 to -5 range by midday into the overnight. Temperatures will not drop as much Tuesday night winds turn from the south west to south thus bringing in some welcome "warmer" air. By Wednesday morning temperatures will only be near 10 and temperatures may just eclipse the freezing mark on Wednesday though another chance of wintry weather moves in Wednesday night into Thursday. More details on that system later. (*this post originally said January in error)

Certainly with these cold conditions, be sure to put extra insulation on pipes if needed and during the cold weather allow faucets to drip. Also be sure to protect outdoor animals! If at all possible bring pets indoors during this cold blast. If you must go outside, do so for only short periods of time and dress in layers... exposed skin could develop frostbite in just 30 minutes of exposure with the forecasted cold temperatures.

Daily Forecasts:

Tonight: 20% chance of rain (could be mixed with sleet briefly). Low of 32 early before warming to around 37 by 6 am. Southerly winds at 6 - 14 mph.

Sunday: Winter Weather Advisory from 2 pm - Midnight. Rain should begin steadily between 10 am - 1 pm and continue into the evening before changing to snow. Between 0.20" - 0.40" of rain is expected. Rain should change to snow between 4 pm and 7 pm and light to moderate snow thereafter.Temperatures will warm to near 44 before falling during the late afternoon. Temperatures are expected dip below freezing around 5 - 7 pm. Chance of precipitation 95%. South-southwest winds before the front at 8 - 15 mph. West to west-northwest winds behind the front at 15-25 mph with gusts over 30 mph.

Sunday Night: Winter Weather Advisory until Midnight. 90% chance of snow before midnight. Snow should tapper off around 9-10 pm. Total snow accumulation of 1-3 inches possible. Turning Cold! Temperatures timeline... 6 pm: ~31; 9 pm: ~17; Midnight: ~10; 3 am: ~6; 6 am: ~1; Low near 0. Blustery winds from the northwest at 12-22 mph; gusts over 25 mph. Wind chills will get as low as -15 to -25!

Monday: COLD! Cloudy with a 50% chance of light snow showers/snow flurries. Less than a half an inch of snow possible. High near 2! Blustery with winds from the northwest at 10-20 mph. Wind chills will range from -15 to -25!

Monday Night: COLD! Mostly cloudy with a low around -3. A few flurries possible. Winds from west-northwest at 5-12 mph. Wind chills in the -15 to -25 range.

Tuesday: COLD! Mostly cloudy early becoming partly to mostly sunny by the afternoon. High near 16. Winds from the west to southwest at 8-15 mph. Wind chills ranging from 5 to -5.

Forecater: Ryan Difani

Accumulating Snow Chances??... Not Once, but Twice!

It's a beautiful start to 2014 here in south-central Kentucky including Bowling Green. Temperatures warmed nicely into the upper 40s under sunny skies. However change is on the way. The early afternoon satellite imagery shows the area of clear skies extending across nearly all of Kentucky and Tennessee. However an area of clouds can be noted in parts of Missouri and Arkansas which are associated with a disturbance over Kansas and Oklahoma which will move our way overnight.

This disturbance is expected to bring more than just clouds to the area however, rain changing to snow seems likely. Before the mention of snow causes mass panic however, I'll mention that snow accumulations will remain light (up to 1 inch). Rain is expected to begin after midnight tonight and then continue into the morning hours of Thursday before changing over to light snow. The exact timing of the change over to snow remains a little tricky even at this hour, but most data suggest a changeover between 7 am and 9 am just after a cold front passes through bringing in much colder air. Total rain before the changeover should remain less than 0.10" and snowfall accumulations will only be from a dusting up to an inch. The most intense (yet still light) snow will occur just after the change over and thus generally before noon. However, light snow and snow flurries could continue throughout the day before coming to a complete end during the evening hours. If you travel north and even east of Warren County, expected a greater chance of accumulating snow. In fact areas along the Ohio River could see 1-3 inches; the NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for those areas.

GFS model for noon on Thursday. Precipitation falling north of the blue line cutting through KY should be falling generally as snow.

Meanwhile the aforementioned cold front will bring in very cold temperatures. In fact, temperatures are expected to drop all day Thursday with temperatures starting out in the upper 30s before the frontal passage. Then temperatures will drop below freezing during the morning hours as precipitation changes to snow. Certainly with temperatures dropping below freezing and light snow falling, roads could become hazardous. By the early afternoon hours, temperatures will drop into the 20s with a temperature of around 25 by 6 pm. Windy conditions will make it feel even colder; wind chills are expected to be in the teens by Thursday afternoon and could dip as low as the single digits overnight Thursday into Friday morning. By Friday morning skies will begin to clear but temperatures will be in the upper teens and highs Friday will likely only be in the mid to upper 20s! Temperatures will moderate to near 40 by Saturday before yet another storm system is expected to move in on Sunday. Again, precipitation type will be a challenge and at this time it appears another rain changing to snow situation is possible. Accumulations could be more significant with Sunday's storm system but quite frankly, it is still too early to call at this point. Thus, we will continue to monitor the forecast and updates will be provided as necessary. Also of note is some very cold air which some data is suggesting for early next week. Some model data (not a forecast) is suggesting lows below zero and highs in the teens... certainly something we will keep our eye on.

Daily Forecast:

Tonight: Cloudy skies with an 80% chance of light rain after midnight. Chilly with a low around 36 with temperatures warming to near 38 by around 5 am. Rainfall less than a 0.10". Light southerly winds.

Thursday: 80% chance of precipitation. Light rain will change to light snow between 7 - 9 am. Light snow and snow flurries will continue off and on throughout the day. Total snow accumulation of up to 1" possible. Cold with temperatures starting near 38 falling below freezing around 9-11 am; ~31 by noon, ~28 by 3 pm, ~25 by 6 pm. Windy with northwest winds between 10 - 20 mph. Wind chills in the teens during the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Cloudy skies with a chance of flurries early will become partly to mostly clear by morning. Cold with a low around 17. Breezy with northerly winds from 10 - 20 mph becoming 8 -14 mph by morning. Wind chills as low as the upper single digits.

Friday: Cold with a high only near 27! Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.

Saturday: Mostly sunny skies with increasing clouds late. Low around 19; warmer with a high near 40.

Sunday: A chance of rain and snow. Low near 34 and a high around 38.

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Forecaster: Ryan Difani