A Brief Warm-Up After the Rain

The rain and overcast skies finally cleared the Bowling Green area around noon today. The cold front responsible for these conditions was nearly stationary as it passed over us last night, but it briefly surged ahead this afternoon, only to stall over the Appalachians. Fortunately, this front is no longer a bother to us, and we will see continued clearing as the evening goes on. High pressure will slide in from the southwest as a response to this retreating frontal system. With plenty of low-level moisture in place thanks to the rain, this high will keep the moisture pinned to the ground. As a result, fog is expected, dense at times, tonight into early tomorrow morning. Use caution if you are driving during these hours.

Skies tomorrow should be virtually cloud-free as the ridge of high pressure parks itself over eastern Kentucky. This ridge may drift northward enough to allow warmth from the Gulf states to creep our way. Consequently, high temperatures tomorrow will have a shot at cracking 70°. This "warmth" will not stick around, though, as a weak cold front is expected to move through south-central Kentucky early Saturday morning. Temperatures will dip slightly, and a few showers will be possible, although the models indicate that the best chance for rain will be along and north of the Ohio River. Cloud coverage will increase as well, although the sun should return in time for Sunday.

Temperatures valid at 4 PM on Friday as modeled by the NAM

Forecast:

Friday: High of 68°. Dense fog is likely in the early morning hours, and may last until 9 AM. Abundant sunshine, though clouds will increase late Friday night. Winds from the southwest at 5 mph.
Saturday: Morning low of 46°. A 30% chance of rain before noon; no significant rain accumulation is expected. Mostly cloudy skies with a high of 61°. West winds at 5-10 mph.
Sunday: Morning low of 39°. Sunshine returns with a southwest wind at 5-10 mph. High near 65°.

Forecaster: Caleb Chevalier

Rain Chances in Store

High temperatures continue to be above average for this time of year across south-central Kentucky. This is partly due to the amount of sunshine we have received over the past few days, but can be more directly attributed to a ridge of high pressure dominating the Great Lakes region. As a result, cooler air from the north is having a difficult time mixing into our area. Sunshine was not as plentiful today thanks to high clouds moving in from the south and west. The clouds are in advance of a gently-sloping warm front aligned over the Dixie Belt. Clouds will increase in coverage as this warm front approaches.

By tomorrow afternoon, the warm front will have lifted to the north, and cloud coverage will remain dense as a cold front moves in from the west. This front will be draped from north to south as a mid-latitude cyclone spins over Minnesota and Iowa. The NAM indicates that Bowling Green will see a frontal passage right around sundown, while the GFS is slower by a few hours. Nevertheless, it appears rain is very likely on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Showers will be in a mostly scattered fashion during the day, with perhaps a thunderstorm or two, with a more linear mode of rain arriving with the cold front passage. Unfortunately, this does not fare well for football weather. It appears the Hilltoppers will have to dodge some rain as they face Louisiana-Lafayette at home.

NAM hi-res composite reflectivity valid at 4 PM on Tuesday

Forecast:

Tuesday: High of 76°. Expect mostly cloudy skies with a 40% chance of rain in the early afternoon hours, increasing to 80% by sunset. Winds will be out of the south at 10 mph.
Wednesday: Morning low of 61°. Rain tapering off during the day, giving way to partly cloudy skies. High around 65°. West winds at 5-10 mph.
Thursday: Morning low of 44°. Look for partly sunny skies with a very slight chance of rain (20%). High temperature around 61°. Winds will be from the west at 4-7 mph.

Forecaster: Caleb Chevalier

A Perfect End to the Week

You couldn't ask for a more beautiful end to the week! High temperatures heading into our weekend will hover in the mid to upper 70s with no rain in sight. Morning lows will continue to be a bit chilly, but not as low as what we saw the past two mornings with lows dipping into the mid 40s. A large area of high pressure is sitting just to our southwest and will continue to give us sunny skies through the early weekend.

 A small disturbance will push through the area Saturday night, but not much in the way of rainfall is expected due to the dry atmosphere. A 20% chance of thunderstorms will come into play on your Sunday, but don't cancel any outdoor plans just yet as most people will see a good deal of sunshine and dry conditions. A more substantial chance for rain will arrive early next week ahead of a cold front which looks to push through during the day on Wednesday.

Short Term Outlook:

Temperatures will gradually cool down overnight and reach a low of 50 degrees by early tomorrow morning. WKU students will need that jacket for early morning classes. An absolutely perfect day is shaping up for your Thursday. The high temperature will be 75 degrees with mostly sunny skies and a light breeze at 5 mph. Tomorrow night will once again be on the chilly side with lows dropping into the low 50s.

Extended Forecast:

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 78. Light east wind.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 77.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 78.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.

Columbus Day: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 71.

Fall is in the Air!

Heavy rain swept through the area this morning ahead of a cold front which is currently tracking through the region. Bowling Green picked up just over a half inch of rain last night through this morning with higher totals to the north and west. Flooding occurred in some of our far northern counties where torrential rain tracked over the same areas last night and early this morning. Over 6.5 inches of rain fell across Louisville within the past 24 hours. A few counties in far western Kentucky even saw a tornado warning issued with the round of storms that moved through yesterday evening. No damage has been reported with any of those storms.

The threat for severe weather will remain to the east of our area ahead of the cold front, but we will see only a few lingering showers for the rest of our Sunday. Clouds will persist through the evening.

The rain chances will continue to diminish as we head into the evening hours with clearing overnight.

After a warm start to October, a more seasonable pattern will begin to set in this week. Temperatures will find themselves on the chilly side as we head into our Monday morning. You won’t need that winter coat quite yet, but a jacket will be handy tomorrow, especially if your heading out before 10am. The sun will be out again tomorrow, but temperatures will only reach the mid 60s. Temperatures will again dip into the mid 40s for Tuesday morning and will climb to around 70 degrees by mid afternoon. Temperatures will remain fairly seasonable for the rest of the week with minimal chances for rain over the next five days.

It’s Fall and that means the leaves are changing! Here is a map from The Weather channel breaking down the time of peak foliage for the area. Bowling Green’s foliage peaks around late October.

So what causes the leaves to change color? Plants use glucose as a building block for growing. The plant turns water and carbon dioxide into oxygen and sugar through a process called photosynthesis which means (putting together with light). The chemical called chlorophyll is what gives the plants their green color. During the winter there is not enough daylight or water for photosynthesis. This means the trees must rest and live off the food stored up during the summer. They begin to shut down the food making process, which results in the disappearing of the chlorophyll. As the green color fades, we begin to see the yellow and orange colors (which have been in the leaves all along). The reason we can’t see these colors in the summer is because they are covered up by the vast amounts of green color.

Weekly outlook:

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. Northwest wind 3 to 8 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 45. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 69. Calm wind becoming northeast around 6 mph in the morning.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 74.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 75.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 52.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

Update on Weekend Forecast and Storm Chances.

We are keeping a close eye on an strong October mid-latititude cyclone that has been brewing in model forecasts for a few weeks now. This system is currently located over Nebraska bringing several inches of snow to Wyoming, and South Dakota. This system looks to arrive for us in central Kentucky late Saturday night into early Sunday morning brining a multi-cellular broken squall line across the eastern United States. The main threats appear to be damaging winds and an isolated hail chance. With the continued model consensus that the surface low will move to our north over the Great Lakes region, we can expected a much more dampened severe storm concern as the best ingredients will remain to the north along the warm front/surface low region. This does not rule out all chances for some storms to reach severe limits as instability looks to be more favorable than earlier this week with a strong cold front for ample forcing.

NAM forecast composite reflectivity (Left) and GFS  MSLP and precipitation (Left) comparison valid for 06 z (1 am CDT)  Sunday. 

The NAM and GFS models agree fairly well on timing for this system entering around 1 am. They are also in good agreement about the mode being linear with the most intense sections of the line being to our north where better ingredients will be in play. The strong cold frontal boundary will pass through around lunchtime Sunday after the rain and storms move through brining a drop in temperature and a more October feel to the first part of next week.

NAM surface temperatures valid for 18z (1 pm) for Sunday showing sharp temperature gradient associated with cold frontal boundary.

Stormtopper Network will keep you informed with up to the minute updates as storms move into Kentucky on  our Facebook page (Warren County WX) and Twitter account (@WarrenCountyWX).



Saturday: High, 82. Chance of precipitation increasing into the day. Some locally-strong storms possible.

Saturday Night: Low, 62. Chance of precipitation increasing into the night with a cool off after frontal passage.

Sunday: High, 68. Storms strong to severe in morning. Largest threat damaging winds and small hail.
Rain chances decreasing after front passes around lunchtime/early afternoon. 

Sunday Night: Low, 45. Cooling off with the passage of the front. Cloudy with lingering rain showers into the early morning Monday. 

Forecaster: Emily Thornton
Next Update: Sunday October 6th.

An End of the Week Shift to more Seasonal Temperatures for October

It has been a warm start to October with highs reaching into the 80's for the first day of the month. According to a monthly summary from the Kentucky Mesonet for October 2012, the high temperature for October 1, 2012 was 66.4 F at the station located at the Western Kentucky agricultural farm. The following week, however, showed a climb back into the upper 70's before a drop back into the 60's with lows in the mid 30's. This shows that though we are unseasonably warm, we are not far off from the October temperatures of last year.

As of now, a ridge of high pressure is dominating weather over the Commonwealth bringing in the oppressive October heat. A chance for precipitation exists Wednesday as an upper level low becomes a broad low pressure wave and moves over Kentucky. Any showers that develop will likely be in the morning hours and isolated in nature.  A pattern shift will occur  into the weekend when we will see a stronger system move in bringing a trough swinging through the eastern US and bringing the polar jet and cooler drier air behind a significant cold frontal boundary set to march across the eastern United States into Saturday. This cool down will provide us temperatures more favored to the mid-60's with lows in the mid-40's by Sunday after the front passes through.

NAM Surface Temperature and Winds Valid 12 z (7 am CDT) Saturday, October 5th.

With this system, we will also expect some rain/thunderstorm chances Saturday and Sunday as the front approaches. The highest chance for precipitation looks to be Saturday night as the models bring the frontal boundary through western/central Kentucky. With the surface low displaced to our northeast, the severe threat will be significantly higher to the northeast across  Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio and  diminished for us in south-central Kentucky. This will not rule out some locally strong storms with ample moisture and moderate pockets of instability depending on the frontal passage timing and thunderstorm development period. A further update on the severe weather potential will be given on Friday.

GFS Mean Sea Level Pressure and Precipitation valid 12 z (7 am CDT)  for Sunday, October 6th.

Daily Forecasts

Wednesday: High, 80.  Partly cloudy with winds calm to 5 mph. Slight chance for isolated rain/thunderstorms around 30%.

Wednesday Night: Low, 69. Cloudy with light winds. Slight chance of precipitation around 20%.

Thursday: High, 81. Mostly sunny with light winds from 5-10 mph.

Thursday Night: Low, 68. Cloudy with light winds.

Friday: High, 83.  Sunny with few clouds.

Friday Night: Low, 70. Cloudy.

Saturday: High, 82. Chance of precipitation increasing into the day. Some locally strong storms possible.

Saturday Night: Low, 62. Chance of precipitation increasing into the night with a cool off after frontal passage.

Forecaster: Emily Thortnon
Next Update: Friday, October 4th.

A beautiful game day in store followed by a rainy Sunday

Gameday Forecast

Overnight: Clear and calm with a low in the mid 50s. 

Friday: A chance of fog in the morning will turn into a nice sunny day with a high of around 82. Winds out of the easy will pick up to 5-8 mph through the day.  A few clouds will roll in by night as the low drops to around 58.

Saturday: A beautiful day for the Western vs. Navy game as mostly sunny skies will persist over the course of the day allowing temperature to climb to the mid 80s.  A light wind from the east will die down overnight with the temperature dropping down to around 60.

Sunday: Sunday is not looking to be quite as nice as cloudy skies will consume the day along with a 60% chance of rain.  Some areas may receive up to a quarter of an inch of rain, although most areas should only receive a tenth of an inch.  A high in the low 70s with a low of around 60.

Discussion: The nice Friday and first half of the weekend will be a result of an area of high pressure parked over us.  This ridge of high pressure will stick around through Saturday until a cold front forces the ridge off to the east by Sunday morning.  The timing of this front and the associated precipitation appears to be morning to afternoon hours.  Although some thunderstorms will be possible along the front, nothing severe is expected at this time. And most importantly… GO TOPS!!  

Forecaster: Michael Flanigan