Out with the Rain... In with the Cold!

The sun is currently shinning hear in south-central Kentucky after clouds and rain moved in yesterday afternoon and lingered through the night and into the morning hours. Around a half inch of rain was common across Warren County; the airport in Bowling Green picked up 0.47". The storm system which brought in the rain is now moving along the east coast and is taking all the gloomy weather along with it. No real cold air is moving in immediately behind the system making for a fairly nice early afternoon across the areas with temperatures rising into the low 50s. This is actually 5-10 degrees above average for this date. Don't get used to the warmer temperatures however because a front is quickly approaching from the northwest and behind it is much colder air. Clouds from the front will begin moving in during the next few hours and cold air will be filtering in. There could be some light drizzle or even a snow flurry overnight into tomorrow morning but certainly precipitation, if any, should be very light with no impacts expected. By tomorrow morning temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 20s and highs will only climb to the mid 30s tomorrow afternoon under mostly cloudy skies.

Colder air will be filtering in tonight behind a cold front which is moving through the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile the system that brought the overnight rain is exiting to the northeast.

By tomorrow evening into the overnight hours, skies should begin to clear. Mostly sunny skies are expected for the final day of 2013 which should allow temperatures to rise into the low 40s after a cold start in the low 20s. In fact, the quite weather should continue into the start of 2014 as temperatures remain in the 40s for highs on Wednesday. The next weather maker will approach Wednesday evening and into Thursday morning. Precipitation looks possible as a disturbance moves in from the northwest. The depth and strength of the disturbance remains a question mark and thus the confidence in precipitation at this time remains low. These factors will also play a role in determining precipitation type. If the system moves to our north (and it should) and becomes more intense (remains questionable) warmer air will be drawn up from the south into our area thus creating better chances for precipitation in the from of primarily rain possibly switching to and ending as light snow early Thursday. In either scenario, precipitation, no matter the type, will be light (if any at all) and no impacts are expected at this time. Of course, with the system still being several days away, the forecast is subject to change and the system will be monitored for any greater impacts. The system will quickly depart Thursday morning and another round of cold air will filter in to end the week.

Daily Forecasts:

Tonight: Cloudy skies with a chance of light drizzle or even a flurry. Northwest winds at 5 -10 mph. Turning colder with a low near 26.

Monday: Cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with a few flurries slightly possible before noon. Chilly with a high around 35 and winds north to northwest at 3 - 8 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy skies early becoming partly to mostly clear by morning and cold with a low near 22.

New Year's Eve (Tuesday): Mostly sunny skies and cool with a high near 41. West winds from 4 - 10 mph.

New Year's Eve Night: Mostly clear skies with a low around 26. Light and variable winds.

New Year's Day (Wednesday): Partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy during the evening. High near 48. Southerly winds a 4 - 10 mph.

New Year's Day Night: 30% chance of light rain or snow; otherwise cloudy with a low around 32.

Thursday: 30% chance of light rain or snow early. Cloudy skies will become partly cloudy by afternoon. Cold with a high around 34.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

Typical Winter Weather Expected, Including a Chance of Snow

Days at a Glance:

Friday:
High: 51 Low: 27  Skies will remain clear and sunny with winds out of the SSW between 5-7 mph.

Saturday:
High: 53 Low: 37 Skies will remain mostly sunny during the day, but will change to mostly cloudy skies as the day ends as the chance of some rain showers increases into the evening hours.  Winds will start out from the SSW around 6 mph, but will weaken to calm winds around midnight.  Chance of rain 20%.

Sunday:
High: 50 Low: 29 Skies will be cloudy throughout the morning with the chance of a rain shower, but will clear up before noon to partly cloudy skies.  Snow showers are possible during the evening hours, although little to no accumulation is expected.  Winds will be coming out of the WSW between 6-8 mph.  Chance of precipitation: 30%.

These are the estimated rain totals for Saturday into Sunday with Bowling Green, KY only getting between 0.10" and 0.25" of rain.

Discussion:
The weather for our area has been kept clear by a dome of high pressure, however, that high pressure system will be pushed out of the way by a cold front bringing in cooler temperatures.  This will set up the stage for some rain to make its way into our area late Saturday into early Sunday.  The rain is expected to take a small break during the day Sunday, but then it is expected to return Sunday evening, but unlike it did in the morning, it may fall as snow instead of rain.  As of now, there is a very small chance that any accumulation of snow will occur during the night Sunday.  We can also expect very little accumulation of rain.  So enjoy it while it lasts, because the weather will change after this weekend.

Forecaster: Will Paschall

Bringing Back Winter Just in Time for Christmas

From all of us in StormTopper Network, we wish all of you Happy Holidays!!!!

Days at a Glance:

Monday:
High: 37 Low: 18 Skies will remain mostly sunny during the day, then change over to partly cloudy skies this evening.  Winds will be coming out of the NNW around 8 mph throughout the course of the day and into tonight, resulting in single digit wind chill values this evening.

Tuesday (Christmas Eve):
High: 27 Low 18 Skies will remain mostly sunny during the day with clear skies at night.  Winds will start out coming out of the NNW around 8 mph resulting in single digit wind chill values early in the day.  Winds will change to light and variable out of the south, which will not cause much of a wind chill.

Wednesday (Christmas Day):
High: 41 Low: 25 Skies will be sunny changing over to partly cloudy skies at night.  Winds will start as light and variable out of the south, but it will quickly change to a SSW wind between 5-8 mph.

Thursday:
High: 42 Low: 23 Skies will be mostly sunny throughout the day with clear skies at night.  Winds will start out of the west between 5-8 mph, changing over to a light and variable winds out of the ENE by sunset.

This is an outlook for what temperatures will be Christmas morning.  With the dark blue representing low 20s,  it is safe to say that if you are going anywhere Christmas morning, you are going to want to bundle up.

Discussion
The cold front responsible for the severe weather we had on Saturday pushed through our area yesterday bringing with it some cold temperatures.  For the first part of this week, we can expect temperatures to stay below 40 as a center of high pressure brings in cold air from our north. As the week progresses, the center of high pressure will begin moving off to our east, which will change the wind direction, thus bringing in slightly warmer air.  This warmer air will cause our high temperature to become warmer, but the temperatures will drop below freezing once the sun goes down.  So bust out those winter coats and fix you up some hot cocoa, because "Baby, It's Cold Outside."

Forecaster: Will Paschall

Warm and Soggy Weekend Expected

Discussion:

Its been a quiet week in weather so far, but that will certainly change by this weekend. Currently, the temperature at the Warren County airport is 46 degrees (4:00 P.M. CST) with a dew point of 17 degrees (4:00 P.M. CST). A combination of clear skies and southwesterly winds this week has kept it feeling pretty warm outside. This trend will only continue as we head into tomorrow. Tonight, mostly clear skies will allow the low temperature to dip right around freezing. Tomorrow will be the best day of the week as southerly winds really get kicking up in the morning allowing the high temperature tomorrow to make a run into the upper 50s and possibly near 60 degrees! Winds will be a little stronger tomorrow than they have all week as southerly winds will be sustained around 10 to 15 mph as moisture surges up from the Gulf of Mexico. This moisture will bring some clouds with it, and by late afternoon Thursday we will see a mix of sun and clouds.

5-day Precipitation forecast issued by the Weather Prediction Center for tonight through Monday night. This forecast shows the potential for 4"+ of rainfall to fall throughout the weekend in Southern Kentucky. Courtesy: WPC

Starting Thursday night, precipitation chances enter the forecast until nearly Sunday evening as a very wet weekend is in store for Kentucky. Aloft, a southwesterly flow will allow for a series of disturbances to move over the area from now until Sunday. At the surface, southerly winds will continue pumping moisture into the area which will create a very moist air mass by Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation chances look very slim Thursday night but increasing cloud cover will limit the temperature from falling too much as the low Thursday night looks to be around 50 degrees. Friday will be a cloudy day, but high temperatures will reach the lower 60s during the afternoon Friday. A weak area of low pressure will move northeast across a stalled front north of us, allowing for showers during the day Friday. These showers should not be too heavy, and precipitation amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch for southern Kentucky. Showers will continue to increase Friday night, and by Saturday morning our rain chances look to increase. A stronger area of low pressure in Texas will be moving northeast across the area on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures on Saturday morning through Sunday morning will remain steady in the lower 60s, with near-record dew points in the lower 60s creating a very moist air mass for this time of year. These exceptional dew points could cause some heavy rain issues during this period as any precipitation that falls will have ample moisture to create very heavy rainfall rates. Rainfall will be steady on Saturday and Saturday night, and weak instability Saturday night could create a few rumbles of thunder as well. As the area of low pressure continues moving to the northeast on Sunday, a cold front will sweep across the area by mid-day lowering temperatures into the 30s and 40s by Sunday night. There could be a few thunderstorms associated with the front moving through Sunday morning, but as of right now no organized severe weather is expected. After all is said and done, Warren county could end up seeing 1-4 inches of total rain by Sunday afternoon, with isolated higher amounts. With this being said, it is important to be prepared for heavy rains this weekend, especially on Saturday through early Sunday.

Days at a Glance:

Tonight: Low - 32 Winds - S 5-7 mph.
Precipitation - 0% Skies - Mostly Clear.

Thursday: High - 59 Low - 49 Winds - S 10 to 15 mph.
Precipitation - 10% chance of an isolated shower after midnight Thursday night.
Skies - Partly Cloudy skies Thursday giving way to Cloudy skies Thursday night.

Friday: High - 63 Low - 57 Winds - S 10 to 20 mph.
Precipitation - 70% chance of showers. Rainfall amounts of less than 0.1" Friday. Rainfall amounts 0.25"-0.5" Friday night. Skies - Cloudy.

Saturday: High - 65 Low - 61 Winds - S 10 to 20 mph.
Precipitation - 90% chance of rain. A few thunderstorms could be possible Saturday night. 1"+ of rainfall is possible. Skies - Cloudy.

Sunday: High - 62 Low- 33. Temperatures will fall throughout the day. Winds - S 10 to 20 mph turning NW 5 to 15 mph by Sunday night.
Precipitation - 70% chance of rain during the day Sunday. A few thunderstorms could be possible Sunday morning. Skies - Cloudy.

Forecaster: Zack Leasor

Warmer Weather on the Way!

Discussion:

Winter has surely shown its face the past few weeks as Warren County has not seen temperatures over 50 degrees since December 5th! Luckily, quiet weather this week will usher in warmer temperatures by midweek. Currently, the temperature at the Warren County airport is 32 degrees with winds W around 5 mph. These winds will diminish as the evening progresses. Visible imagery satellite has shown an extensive area of clouds over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys today. These clouds will be here throughout the evening and the temperature will be slow to decrease this evening. Skies will remain mostly cloudy overnight as the temperature drops into the middles 20s. As the cloud cover dissipates Monday morning winds will turn to the south, finally delivering some warmer temperatures!

Day 3 surface analysis valid 12Z Wednesday 12/18/13 showing a center of high pressure right over the Tennessee Valley. Courtesy: WPC

This week will remain very calm weather-wise. High pressure will be building in from the southwest over our area. This means mostly clear skies and southwesterly winds will be the forecast for the first half of the work week. High temperatures will range from the middle 40s on Monday and Tuesday to around 50 degrees on Wednesday afternoon! We have a shot at near 60 degrees on Thursday before another round of precipitation moves in for the weekend. We will keep an eye of this round of precipitation for the potential to produce heavy rainfall.

Days at a Glance:
Tonight: Low - 26 Winds - Light and variable.
Precipitation - 10% Skies - Cloudy becoming Mostly Cloudy.

Monday: High - 44 Low - 33 Winds - SW 5 to 10 mph.
Precipitation - 0% Skies - Partly Cloudy.

Tuesday: High - 48 Low - 32 Winds W 5 to 10 mph.
Precipitation - 0% Skies - Partly Cloudy.

Wednesday: High - 52 Low -39 Winds S 5 to 10 mph.
Precipitation - 0% Skies - Partly Cloudy.

Forecaster: Zack Leasor

Weekend Rainmaker

Days at a Glance:
Friday: Very chilly morning low in the upper teens rising to a high in the upper 40's. 5-6 mph SSW winds slightly shifting SSE throughout day under increasing cloudy skies into the afternoon. 70% chance of scattered light rain/wintery precip/snow showers/drizzle beginning late afternoon/evening switching over to widespread moderate rain showers into the overnight hours.

Saturday: Begin in the mid 30's rising to mid 40's. 5-6 mph SE winds shifting to 10-12 mph NW winds into afternoon and evening under overcast skies. 100% light to moderate rain showers dissipating mostly by noon with light rain drizzle throughout the remainder of the day. Total rainfall accumulations averaging 1/2 of an inch and staying under 3/4 of an inch.

Sunday: Low in the upper 20's rising to the mid 30's. 8-10 mph NW winds shifting to 5-6 mph SW winds late evening under sunny skies as clouds clear out in the morning hours. No precipitation anticipated.

Discussion:
Someone must have been doing the rain dance because rain is on the way for the first half of the weekend. After an overall cold week, temperatures will moderate slightly bringing rain with it. The surface high pressure that parked over us yesterday into today will be shifting to our east overnight into tomorrow. A low pressure system will pass directly over our area from the SW. This will bring widespread light to moderate rain showers overnight Friday into Saturday morning. A slight wintery precip/snow/rain mix is possible Friday afternoon as the dry atmosphere continues to saturate but the very light intensity, relatively short duration, and above freezing surface temperatures will lead to negligible impacts. Even though a majority of the rain is moving out around noon Saturday, lingering rain drizzle will stay for the remainder of the day before fully dissipating into the evening and overnight hours.

Weather Prediction Center's Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (total precipitation accumulations in inches) from 6am Friday morning to 6am Saturday morning.

Another cold blast of all too familiar Arctic air will rush into the area behind the cold front Saturday evening and overnight into Sunday morning under clearing skies. This will keep Sunday's temperatures like much of this past week in the low to mid 30's under mostly sunny skies.

Forecaster: Austin Boys

Snow Update

The overnight forecast is still quite tricky but not as significant as first thought. High resolution model for short-term (hourly) use is showing the scattered snow showers traveling just to our NW while widespread rain showers travel just to our south and east. Current radar trends tend to agree with this. Any precipitation that falls will have a good chance of sticking since temperatures are just below freezing, but luckily we will see little to none falling. The greatest chances are NW portions of the county for light snow flurries and the SE portions of the county for isolated freezing rain showers with both attaining little to no accumulations and minor impacts. The greatest impact should be isolated slick spots on rural and secondary roads in south and eastern portions of the county. Any precipitation will have exited the area by daybreak tomorrow.

The forecast for the remainder of the period remains unchanged with the next forecast coming on Thursday evening.

Forecaster: Austin Boys